1. GEOSS ADC Architecture Workshop Water/Drought Scenario 5 Feb 2008 David Arctur OGC Interoperability Institute darctur@ogcii.org

2. Drought … The Growing Threat During the past 30 years, there is evidence of an increase in the incidence of drought worldwide Increasing temperatures combined with growing populations and unsustainable use of water resources are combining to magnify droughts impacts Required Areas of Expertise –Drought Monitoring –Forecasting –Impacts Monitoring and Assessment Some or all of these areas are beginning to be addressed by national and regional programs Response: Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) – Research – Education – Planning Nov 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit:

3. Scenario: Drought Monitoring and Response Overview Context and pre-conditions Scenario events Data sources and other coordination 3

4. Overview Drought: an increasingly damaging phenomena –Growing population & agricultural stresses on surface & groundwater –Reduced snow and glacier reservoirs Complex phenomena –Defined across many time scales, impacting many economic sectors –Sea surface temperatures (SST), winds, land cover, many other factors Scenario objectives –Monitor & forecast drought indicators –Assess water and drought conditions and impacts –Plan for mitigation –Carry out response strategy –Consider and address multi-disciplinary and cross-border institutional communications and coordination 4

5. Context and pre-conditions Actors (stakeholders) Information available before scenario begins Specific processing requirements GUI development and GEOSS portal integration Institutional coordination 5

6. Context and pre-conditions: Actors Consumers –Residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural Local officials –City managers, county managers Agency officials and staff –State Natural Resource Department decision/policy makers –State and Federal agency water managers –(USA) Army Corps of Engineers GEOSS portal integrator 6

7. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 1 Example regions of interest –Near-term: Southeastern USA (NIDIS data and capabilities) –Longer-term: Pacific Basin (Americas, Australia, Pacific Islands) Framework geographical datasets –Roadways, landcover, hydrography –Locations of major agricultural production, industrial centers, and urban areas with high water resource demands –Gazetteer and locations for built-up areas, with linked population figures –Digital terrain/elevation model –Orthophotography or satellite imagery 7

8. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 2 Environmental data –Precipitation –Soil moisture indices –Drought indicators Palmer Indices SPI (standard precipitation index) VHI (vegetation health index) SWSI (surface water supply index) –Snow water content and snow depth –Streamflow, lake and reservoir levels, and groundwater status –Soil and air temperature –Humidity –Wind speed and direction –Solar radiation 8

9. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 3 Documented impacts on human and natural systems –Single-sector outputs such as agricultural yields –Multi-sector impacts such as those affecting water demands, wildfire risks, and recreation 9

10. Context and pre-conditions: Specific processing capabilities Monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperatures and precipitation; anomalies (greater/lesser than normal) 12 months in advance (example source: NWS Climate Prediction Center) Assessment of current water conditions (precipitation, ground water, USDM indices, water monitor network, many products) Drought 3-month outlook (USDM subjectively derived) Drought impacts monitoring system with impacts database, analysis tools and practices Determination of drought triggers: threshold values of an indicator that distinguish drought magnitude and determine when management actions should begin and end –PDI or USDM triggers result in actions taken by state and local managers; generally locally/regionally determined, not national –In the US, Army Corps of Engineers may respond to triggers 10

11. Context and pre-conditions: GUI development, GEOSS portal integration Data discovery tools: portal (GUI) & clearinghouse (harvester) –For community data sources (metadata) to be harvestable, metadata server needs to support CSW –If community data sources support standard WMS, WCS, WFS, SOS, etc. services, the portal can preview and access the actual datasets; otherwise it will simply refer user to remote server Data viewer client: within the portal, Google Earth, etc. Drought research community adopts the portal –Community-managed web UI – wiki, journals, pre-defined and derived maps –Build and save projects; add new data as it emerges –Help support cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary applications 11

12. Context and pre-conditions: Institutional coordination WMO, CEOS, IGOS/IGWCO, GCOS, GEWEX NIDIS (US National Integrated Drought Information System) NADM, USDM (N.American/US Drought Monitor) FEWS (Famine Early Warning Sysem) Drought Management Center of Southeastern Europe HARON (Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network) Plus many others as potential collaborators – see National Drought Mitigation Center International Activities 12

13. Coordination with GEOSS tasks WA-08-01 – Integration of In-situ and Satellite Data for Water Cycle Monitoring GEO UIC coordination? 13

14. 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit ~40 people from 19 countries - Argentina - Australia - Austria - Belgium - Botswana - Canada - France - Germany - Honduras - Japan Introduction - Mark Myers, Director, USGS North American Drought Monitor and NIDIS - Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC FEWS NET - Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET Regional Scientist for Southern Africa Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe -Silvo Zlebir, Director, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia SERVIR - Carrie Stokes, USAID Drought Side Meeting 29-Nov-2007 - Kenya - Korea - Netherlands - Norway - Panama - Slovenia - South Africa - United Kingdom - USA

15. Develop a Global Drought Early Warning System within the coming decade to provide: –A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought –Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis United States Proposal 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

16. Near-term Priorities –Develop a Task within the GEO Work Plan –May/Jun 08: Convene a meeting of technical leadership to identify needs and priorities (Hosted by the IDEA Center in Hawaii) Identify needs as well as existing or potential capacities across nations Establish initial approaches and identify one or more fundamental aspects to address first Recommended approach to achieving long-term objective – Initially address by expanding regional activities Begin with areas strongly impacted by ENSO (Americas and Pacific: North and South America, Australia) 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

17. Prerequisites for global drought preparedness Must first assess each national participants: Current drought monitoring capabilities and practices Observational data network activities, capabilities, and resources Drought forecasting Drought response Current potential level of participation in global network What is needed for them to reach their desired level of participation –May have different levels of participation depending on variations in countries capabilities and desires 17

18. Scenario Steps (simplified) 1.Agency research staff tasked and capable to forecast seasonal & annual precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, drought 2.Research staff requests data from GEOSS portal 3.Research results show region will have severe drought 4.Assess physical and economic risks and impacts of drought, identify needed actions 5.Deliver services, assistance, mitigation (track results) 6.Notify related stakeholders regarding data and results 18

19. Supporting data and other resources - 1 US NIDIS Portal, http://www.drought.gov http://www.drought.gov US NIDIS, The National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan, June 2007, http://www.drought.gov/pdf/NIDIS-IPFinal-June07.pdf http://www.drought.gov/pdf/NIDIS-IPFinal-June07.pdf US NIDIS, Managing Drought: A roadmap for change in the United States, July 2007 http://geosociety.org/meetings/06drought/roadmap.pdf http://geosociety.org/meetings/06drought/roadmap.pdf US National Drought Monitoring Center, Univ Nebraska, Lincoln http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/tools.htm http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/tools.htm 19

20. Supporting data and other resources - 2 Famine Early Warning System, http://www.fews.net/http://www.fews.net/ IGOS Water Theme, http://www.igospartners.org/Water.htmhttp://www.igospartners.org/Water.htm IGWCO, Conceptual Framework for a Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network (HARON), March 2007 http://www.gewex.org/IGWCO/9.4_IGWCO_HARON.pdf http://www.gewex.org/IGWCO/9.4_IGWCO_HARON.pdf GCOS, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=geoss http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=geoss GEWEX, http://www.gewex.org/http://www.gewex.org/ UN FAO, Water Development and Management Unit, http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_climwat.html http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_climwat.html 20

21. Next Steps Work with likely participants to identify case studies –NIDIS Portal team working on Southeast US drought response (near term) –Broader drought science community trying to build capacity among developing countries & islands in Pacific Basin to support DEWS (longer term) –Others…? 21