1. Financial Crisis Impacts Sargon Nissan nef (the new economics foundation)

2. Analysing the Crisis Impact nef embarking on study analysing vulnerability of developing countries to the financial crisis Considering impact of continued financial liberalisation and financial dependence How exposed are Developing Countries? What determines vulnerability?

3. Some context - Crisis Headlines

4. Falling Markets

5. Risk Premiums Rising

6. Risk Premiums Rising… but it’s not unprecedented

7. Risk Pricing Market valuation of risk is good at shutting the door after the horse bolts The worst time to invest in banking stocks was not now but 12 months ago!

8. Run-up to the crisis

9. Banking Boom

10. FDI Growth

11. Growth in Derivatives

12. Liberalisation’s Logic Increased investment Stability Better targeted investment (efficiency) Growth Justify financial market and banking sector de- or re-regulation

13. Exposure and Vulnerability Exposure; direct –Direct consequences in terms of financial and asset positions Lost income from exports, currency exposure, increased debt servicing costs Vulnerability; contingent –Economic and political features which are contingent –Extent to which countries can respond to and resist –Highlights importance of linkages amongst different dynamics in financial markets and how they determine impact –Different evolutions of crisis will have different implications across countries

14. Exposure and Vulnerability Vulnerability In particular factors impacting sovereign autonomy –Foreign banks’ involvement in Developing Countries (grown) –FDI restrictions in banking sector –Asset share of bank assets by foreign banks –Reserve accumulation Fluidity of flows –Net private inflows vs gross outflows –FDI outflows, including from ‘non-official’ sources

15. Exposure and Vulnerability Vulnerability, not just exposure Why the distinction? A final thought Considering direct impacts/exposure to the crisis to reveal the most ‘non-vulnerable’ country could suggest N. Korea is best positioned to withstand it. Countries can influence both the dynamics of the crisis and some have a degree of agency over how exposed they are and how the c

16. Analysing Crisis Impact Examining three major factors Reliance on exports –Need to examine which sort, e.g. oil vs luxury cars Reliance on international finance –Some forms of reliance are inherently more precarious, e.g. extent of FDI accounted for by portfolio flows, bank lending… External penetration of the financial system –Raises issues of home bias, lack of local knowledge, regulatory power of domestic authority

17. Analysing Crisis Impact Reliance on exports: Trade Trade openness Current account balance Export focus (to whom?) –South-south links –Extent of presumed ‘decoupling’ – looks like we’re all in it together Export vulnerability (Elasticity of demand for key exports)

18. Analysing Crisis Impact Reliance on international finance Openness of capital account Capital inflows as % of GDP Bank flows as % of GDP Portfolio flows as % of GDP % of domestic assets and liabilities in domestic banks’ portfolios % of foreign currency denominated debt Level of private external debt (and short-term debt) to GDP Reserves to GDP –Ability to offset foreign shortfalls Currency denomination of foreign exchange reserves –Impact of falling US dollar Correlation of domestic and international interest rates –Impact on domestic cost of capital

19. Analysing Crisis Impact External penetration of the financial system Foreign ownership of banking system –Impact on domestic credit creation –Asymmetric information Larger, more distant banks are not equipped to lend effectively or appropriately after crises when home markets have to be prioritised –Current and projected losses + credit impact % of gross national savings comprised of foreign private savings (correlation between domestic saving and domestic investment rates)

20. Other Impacts Consequences of crisis not restricted to direct economic impacts, implications of changed character of financial sector ownership or future regulatory models Impacts on other key areas of negotiation particularly where proposals incorporate private financing or rely on assumptions about economic activity or growth

21. Other Impacts Crisis reveals financial system’s inability to value risk appropriately –In economic sense –In environmental sense These two risks are of course related

22. Financing Climate Change Adaptation Range of options currently discussed –Slowdown in growth expectations affecting revenue assumptions –Raised financing costs Key issues Equity Efficacy Sufficiency (to reach e.g. $50 bn) Implications for advocacy Need for renewed analysis of the appropriateness of approaches –Potential reduction in amounts raised –Extent to which models still reflect an efficient and/or equitable approach in relation to each other

23. Financing Climate Change Adaptation EU proposal Domestic Scheme Involves auctioning emission permits to the private sector entities 20% is envisaged to be used for a number of climate change related activities, including helping developing countries adapt. With particular priority to the LDCs The Aviation scheme Opportunity to overcome some of the ‘domestic revenue problem’ Auctioning by member states who will also determine the use to which proceeds are put to. UNFCCC predict this kind of auctioning could raise $22bn in 2010 at $23.6/tCO2. World Bank proposal Chinese proposal

24. Financing Climate Change Adaptation US proposal Bi and Multilateral Carbon Auction Levy Funding (The US International Climate Change Adaptation and National Security Fund) To be established in the US Treasury, with the aim of financing international climate change adaptation from 2012 till 2050. Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would auction a percentage of the annual emission allowances of the proposed US emission trading scheme, starting with 2012: 1%, and raising gradually to 7% in 2050. Amounts to around $1bn in 2012 increasing to $6bn by 2030. 60% of the funds can go into international funds provided they meet certain UN framework requirements.

25. Financing Climate Change Adaptation Chinese proposal 0.5% of GDP will be paid by developed countries on top of existing ODA, to help address climate change in developing countries This would amount to around $185bn per annum Focus on equity via GDP as proxy Issues raised by crisis Pressure on additionality Revenue estimates out of date Equitable principles to be tested

26. Implications of Crisis Impact Solidarity Different countries will be impacted differently, challenging in novel ways the capacity to develop a collective response from the South Vulnerability and agency (or lack of) reveal new cracks in collective bargaining positions Regulation without Governance Potential for renewed emphasis on bilateral forms of influence versus multilateral structures of negotiation, such as collective trade or finance rules –Implications for FFD process of EU –Altered regulatory regimes, both de jure (e.g. Basle II) and de facto (ratings agencies and other institutional gatekeepers) –Unclear what will emerge subsequently to ‘hold the ring’ –Risk of a technocratic approach being taken

27. Implications of Crisis Impact Institutional power Outflow of nations from IMF/World Bank influence may now be checked Potentially reinvigorating consequences for these institutions as political and economic actors. Governance issue had waned as their significance and centrality contracted but could once again be a crucial component of any new settlement Changing of the guard, not the system? New countervailing centres of financial power Should the deat of old centres of power be proclaimed? OR will the name-plates change?