1. Can native plant species find refuge beyond their current ranges in the face of climate change?
Pacific Northwest (PNW) prairies are an imperiled ecosystem that contain a large number of plant species, many of which have northern and/or southern range limits from southwestern Oregon/northern California to Washington/southern British Columbia. The few remaining high-quality prairies harbor a number of sensitive, rare, and endangered plant species that may be lost with climate change
Tera Johnson, Skidmore College
Laurel Pfeifer-Meister, University of Oregon
Scott Bridgham Lab & Bart Johnson Lab

2. Why Should Society Care about Climate Change?
“All ecosystems and human societies depend on a healthy environment that contains diverse plant and animal species.”
Economic and Environmental Benefits of Biodiversity (Pimental et al. 1997)
Globally, climate change may lead to rises in sea level, reduced freshwater availability, spread in diseases, and negative impacts on food security.
Another key challenge (a challenge that I’m particularly exploring) in climate change is biodiversity and plant range distribution
Extensive research has shown that both ecosystems and human societies depend on a healthy and diverse native environment
For instance Piemental et al emphasize that ..

3. Essential Services Brought to You by Biodiversity
Nitrogen Fixation
Soil Formation
Biological Pest Control
Plant Pollination
Agricultural Services
Essential Medicines
CO2 Sequestering
Organic Waste Disposal
Future Research
Soil formation: Diverse soil biota facilitate soil formation and improve it for crop production.
Nitrogen Fixation: Biological nitrogen fixation is a process in which atmospheric N, is converted by bacteria into substrates of nitrogen that plants can use.
SOCIETY:
Essential medicines: many synthetic drugs, including aspirin, were first discovered in wild plants and animals.
CO2 Sequest. By forests (occupy 1/3 land area)
Organic waste disposal: Each year, humans, livestock, and crops produce approximately 38 billlion metric tons of organic wastes worldwide.These wastes are recycled by a variety of decomposer organisms
Future sustainability research
Societal Services
Images courtesy of GoogleImages

4. Concerns with Managing Biodiversity in the Pacific Northwest
Many people expressed dissatisfaction with the tendency of policy to focus on single species.
Many also desire a need to recognize the dynamic nature of ecosystems and to manage accordingly.
“What are some potential impacts, and how will climate change scenarios play out in the short- and long-term?”
In a study performed by White and Molina, land managers, fed agencies, environmentalist, etc, were interviewed about their concerns regarding biodiveristy management
Some of the main concerns were:
First point: oversimplifies biodiversity
Another question that was amongst research participants was this:
The Pacific Northwest Research Station biodiversity initiative: Scoping out the challenges in managing biodiversity
The Pacific Northwest Research Station biodiversity initiative: Scoping out the challenges in managing biodiversity (White and Molina., 2006)

5. Here’s Where My Research Comes In!
I am…
Incorporating climate change both in the sort term and long term, focusing on multiple species, and incorporating the abiotic and biotic factors that overlooked by historical observation
Focusing on multiple species
Considering abiotic and biotic factors

6. Predictions for future climate in the Pacific Northwest
Temperature
Precipitation
Thus, our temperature treatments are based off of this enchanced seasonal cycle
lesse words
Future climate in the Pacific Northwest (Mote and Salathe, 2010)
Take home: Trends in temperature are generally upward. Winters are wetter and summers are drier.

7. Plant Distribution in the PNW: Research Hypothesis
If projected changes in climate negatively impact fitness and/or plant growth for species within their current range, one may expect fitness and plant growth to be positive beyond this range.
A lack of consistent results may suggest that species distribution is dependent upon other site-specific factors.

8. Methods: Sites Decrease in Temperature
Three prairie sites were chosen along a 520 km natural climate gradient
Decrease in Temperature

9. Methods: Plots
Each site contains 20 plots, each with different treatments:
Heat (+2.5oC)
Precipitation (+20%)
Heat + Precipitation
Control
Beginning of each year, same number of seeds planted – equal opportunity of growth.
Climate
Soil nutrient availability
Competition from neighbors

10. So. Oregon/ Willamette Valley
Methods: The Plants
I measured plant growth (weight) and fitness (seed count) of 6 native plant species within and beyond their geographic ranges in the PNW in response to climate change.
So. Oregon/ Willamette Valley
Southern Oregon
All 3 Sites
Achyrachaena mollis
Thysanocarpus radians
Navarretia pubescens
Ranunculus austro-oreganus
Achnatherum lemmonii
Clarkia purpurea
Results from this research may assist land managers to make generalized trends regarding their shifts in distribution and risk of extinction.

11. Results: Survivorship
Before we can begin to measure plant size, each species must overcome the first hurdle - establishment.
For plants who have their ranges in SOR, most ten to establish best outside their range (in COR).
Hypethetic more, what happens when you move

12. Results: Plant Growth
As establishment was a significant hurdle, there were cases where we had few individuals surviving in particular treatments.
(1) Point out few places where this was the case.
Plants tend to be larger south and smaller north; significant for all except ThyRad.

13. Results: Plant Growth
Once a species is established, the main factor affecting growth is temperature.
Now, let’s take a closer look at each individual species and see how temperature influences growth at each site.
(SOR plants)
For plants with native ranges in SOR, heat generally has positive effect (except for NavPub)
(ACHLEM)
Heating was negative
(CLAPUR)
Heating negative in SOR but positive elsewhere.
Native Species in range: no plant growth with heat treatment or plant growth with heat, but negative direction.

14. Results: Reproductive Fitness
Larger plants produced more seeds
Seed count predictive of plant growth
Results from size translated to # of seeds
Site is important when predicting plant fitness

15. Conclusions
More plants tend to establish best outside their geographic range north.
Once established, heat positively influences plant size, regardless of current range.
Plants tend to become increasing smaller towards the North.
Ultimately, our research demonstrates that climate change may significant effects on native species occurring within natural ranges. Therefore, the ability to disperse may determine likelihood of survival.

16. Future Research Assisted Migration:
Then, replant in Washington and Oregon
Plants from California are better adapted to warmer climates and may be more fit North.
May obtain telling results, however AM is controversial
Take seeds from Northern/Central California

17. Acknowledgements - My mentor: Laurel Pfeifer-Meister - FASEB
Funding by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Award DE-FG02-09ER64719
- My mentor: Laurel Pfeifer-Meister
- Lorien Reynolds
- Tim Tomaszewski
- Samantha Block
- Liam Beckman
- Chelsea Little
- FASEB
- Peter O’Day
- Adam Unger
- All of the SPUR interns

18. Thank You!