1. How are ARMS Data Collected? an Overview Rich Allen Deputy Administrator National Agricultural Statistics Service

2. Goals Clarify survey content Describe data interrelationships Outline sampling approach Mention publicity approaches Highlight data collection concerns Touch on analysis/summary

3. F arm P roduction E xpenditures S urvey 1972 - 1984

4. C ost of P roduction S urveys 1973 - 1984

5. F arm C osts and R eturns S urvey 1985 - 1995

6. C ropping P ractices S urvey 1990 - 1995

7. A gricultural R esource M anagement S urvey 1996 – 2???

8. Multiple phases are used for survey efficiency, timeliness, and data linkages

9. ARMS Phase I Conducted between May and July to screen farms for the later phases Ensures operations are still in business Defines the sampling frame for later phases Shortens initial contact (average 5-10 minutes) Collects general farm data such as crops grown, livestock inventory, and value of sales

10. ARMS Phase II Conducted from September through December when information should be fresh Collects data on chemical usage, production practices, resource use, and variable costs of production for specific commodities Shortens interview by focusing on specific commodities (3-year average – 60 Minutes)

11. ARMS Phase III Conducted from February through April when records should be complete Collects information on whole farm finance, operator, and household characteristics Uses multiple questionnaire versions Requires a considerable amount of time (3-year average – 94 minutes)

12. Cost of Production Matrix 1 YearCommodities 2000Dairy, Rice, Sugar beets 2001Corn 2002Soybeans 2003Barley, Upland Cotton, Sorghum 2004Peanuts, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat, Hogs

13. Cost of Production Matrix 2 YearCommodities 2005Corn, Dairy, Oats 2006Soybeans, Poultry 2007Upland Cotton, Rice

14. 2003 ARMS II Sample Sizes CommoditySamples Barley2,133 Sorghum1,433 Cotton2,559 Positive responses from Phase II move to Phase III.

15. 2003 ARMS III Typical Versions VersionSamples Cost & Returns Report12,375 Barley PPCR2,133 Sorghum PPCR1,433 Cotton PPCR2,559 Subtotal18,500 (Core – 15 states – 16,850)

16. Chem Use Matrix 1 YearCommodities 2000Corn, Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat 2001Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Fall Potatoes 2002Corn, Durum Wheat Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat

17. Chem Use Matrix 2 YearCommodities 2003Corn, Fall Potatoes 2004Soybeans 2005Upland Cotton, Fall Potatoes 2006Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat 2007Corn, Fall Potatoes

18. 2003 ARMS III Expansion New funding provides for increased sample sizes for state level data A shorter “core” questionnaire has been designed Two survey modes will be used for initial contacts –Personal –Mail

19. Sample Selection Objectives Represent all operations Create detailed data sets Minimize respondent burden

20. Perry – Burt Sampling Sample selection weights adjusted for previously selected operations Approach virtually eliminates chance of selection in consecutive years

21. Stratification Main variable is economic size class Sampling rates adjusted for operations selected for commodity specific contacts

22. Data Expansions Basic weights based on inverse of selection factors Weights adjusted within strata for missing data

23. Data Edits and Analysis Records edited for internal consistency Individual expansions examined for outliers National and Regional summaries are reviewed

24. Routine ARMS III Uses Income and expense estimates to BEA - - late June Farm Production Expenditures Report (NASS) - - mid-July National Income Estimates (ERS website) - - September Ag Income and Finance S & O (ERS website) - - November

25. ARMS Data Collection Concerns Survey seems long Some questions are not farm related Some question seem quite personal Respondents often don’t understand “What’s in it for me?” Some questions ask for things that can’t be easily answered

26. Past Data Collection Approaches Strengthen enumerator training Minimize overlap with other surveys Send out pre-survey letters Set up interview appointments Send back personalized summary information

27. Survey Promotion Approaches NASS awareness postcards Pre-survey “theme” letters Data user testimonies Promotional brochures

28. Data Collection Help Needed How to stress “What’s in it for you?” How to describe state and local data uses