1. Understanding and Planning A Prosperous Way Down Howard T. Odum and Elisabeth C. Odum Presentation by Thomas Abel

2. Our Futures  Now is a time of: Large world populations Stress on many ecosystems Economic problems Growing social inequality  What will our futures look like?

3. Our Futures  Some think our economies can grow forever, that any limits will be overcome by technology – Techno-optimists  Others predict the collapse of nature and economies – Dystopians Techno-optimistsDystopia Two extremes

4. Our Futures  But maybe there is path in between the two extremes  A way that recognizes the importance of ecosystems and the limits to resources  A way that offers hope that we can maintain the health and dignity of people, and the essences of life that are meaningful to us… …a prosperous way down

5. A Prosperous Way Down  Growth, transition, and descent  If the principles and predictions within A Prosperous Way Down are correct, the world has no choice, nor should it fear the inevitable course in the latest chapter of our human journey

6. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  Pulsing  From the study of ecosystems and other systems, the Odum’s argue that “pulsing”, as they call it, has four common stages Growth Transition Descent Low Energy Restoration

7. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  This is thought to be the course taken by all systems of nature, nested one within the other, constructed from both the living and non-living

8. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  The Odum’s have argued the ubiquity of pulsing to be the result of the self- organization of energy in systems, what they call the ‘maximum empower principle’ A nested hierarchy of pulsing patterns

9. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  A similar pulsing pattern has been proposed by C.S. Holling, called the ‘adaptive cycle’ The ‘Adaptive Cycle’

10. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  Studies of many kinds of systems in many fields of knowledge show that pulsing is usual  A time of gradual production and storing of reserves is followed by a short period of intensive consumption and recycling

11. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  Think of a shoe factory  When a pair of shoes is made, it is not shipped immediately to the retail store  That would be inefficient  Instead, managers wait until they have made another pair, and another pair, and another pair  Finally, at some point when the storage of shoes is large enough they are all shipped to the store for sale  Shipping the shoes is the rapid consumption pulse  Now the factory will slowly rebuild its storage of shoes

12. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  The traditional view in ecology and one model for our economic future is growth followed by leveling off into a steady state where inflows balance losses  It is popular with many in our society who seek “sustainability” for our civilization “Sustainability”

13. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  Pulsing, however, prevails because operations that pulse transform more energy than those at steady state  Apparently, an alternation of production and consumption provides a better long-run coupling of energy intake for maximum empower than a steady state can provide Pulsing prevails Steady-state leveling for ‘sustainability’

14. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  Pulsing patterns result from self- organization  A pulsing system of some form appears to be the stable one in the long run, repeating its periods of storage and use  There are optimum frequencies for maximum performance

15. Pulsing and Maximum Empower Blue - Nonrenewable Energy Red - World Assets Pulsing Systems Diagram Pulsing Simulation  Over a long, long time fossil fuels have been stored in the Earth  We are now participating in the consuming pulse

16. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  One of many examples of Hubbert Peak predictions Campbell (2004)

17. Pulsing and Maximum Empower  This presentation will explore the issues of energy resources, economy, culture, information, policy, and their relation to this pulsing model and its implications for our global future  Our exploration will be speculative (nobody can see the future)  But our exploration will alert you to new challenges that we may all face, and hopefully suggest valuable new solutions

18. The State of the World Today Growth Becomes Transition

19. The Global Network Chapter 9

20. The Global Scale and the Global Network  As the growth melee strips the remaining natural capital of the Earth and civilization reaches its zenith… …the exclusive dominance of large- scale capitalism can be replaced with an emphasis on cooperation with the environment and among nations  Increased efficiencies are likely to limit extremes in the distribution of real wealth  International trade and loans can be made equitable with emergy evaluations

21. The Global Scale and the Global Network  A major change in mechanisms for international order is evolving that can replace the old system of territorial defenses with shared military forces  A reverse arms race may occur, with reductions leading to further reductions Territorial defenses Peacekeepers Disarming

22. The Global Scale and the Global Network  Global sharing of information and increased trade are joining the centers of civilization in common enterprise  Already something of a new global culture is developing with the power to eliminate wars by interconnected futures and shared aspirations and attitudes for peace Shared information for common goals

23. The Global Scale and the Global Network  Examples of important shared information messages:  Protecting the purity of the global atmosphere  Maintaining cordiality and trade between neighboring countries that are culturally different  Sharing technologies that are useful anywhere Share technologies Biogas generator Protect our atmosphere Maintain cordial trade relations

24. The Global Scale and the Global Network  Declining resources diminish nations’ inclinations and military capacities to encroach on others  Providing that the remaining fuel resources are shared in open markets, great wars of national competition, growth, and conquest may never come again  Small conflicts and boundary disputes may be within the power of international organizations to limit United Nations

25. The Global Scale and the Global Network  For a peaceful transition we need to:  Share information internationally rather than sell it  Arrange trade and loans with emergy- based equity  Replace resource exploitation with environmental mutualism Share Information Emergy-based trade equity Environmental mutualism

26. Energy Sources Chapter 10

27. Evaluating Energy Sources  Are there energy limits to growth?  Is energy a substitutable commodity just like any other?

28. Evaluating Energy Sources  The value of an energy source is not in its yield Yield = energy out (J, Kcal, BTUs, etc)  When evaluating and comparing energy sources, the important issue is always the net output  Net is Y/F Crude oil, coal, natural gas

29. Evaluating Energy Sources  To get energy output you must do work – equipment, mining, pumping, transporting, storing, refining, research, new technologies, labor, educating technicians and researchers, etc.  Net measurements compare the output against the input  Fuels must have a net emergy output significantly greater than 1 to drive an economy

30. Evaluating Energy Sources  Although many energy alternatives and substitutions are possible… Energy Sources

31. Evaluating Energy Sources  … none in sight now have the quantity and quality to substitute for the rich fossil fuels that support the high levels of structure and process of our current civilization Electricity Production Coal-fired Power Plant

32. Evaluating Energy Sources  Burning Fuel for Heat (many uses) Palm Oil 1.06 Plantation Wood 2.1 Natural gas, offshore 6.8 Oil, Mideast 8.4 Coal, Wyoming 10.5 Oil, Alaska 11.1 Emergy Yield Ratio

33. Evaluating Energy Sources  Making Electricity Solar cell 0.41 Wind power 2-? Coal power plant 2.5 Nuclear power 4.5 Hydroelectricity10 Geothermal13 Emergy Yield Ratio

34. Evaluating Energy Sources  Whereas ecosystems, forests, agricultural systems, and fisheries using sunlight have net emergy yields to support society, solar technology does not because the dilute nature of sunlight prevents efficient conversion directly to mechanical or electrical energy Sunlight is a dilute source Net emergy yield is 0.41

35. Evaluating Energy Sources  The trend of substitution of one fuel for another continues toward more use of natural gas, but proven fuel reserves are not increasing Liquid Natural Gas

36. Evaluating Energy Sources  Because 71% of the whole Earth empower comes from fossil fuels, global consumption eventually has to be reduced to less than one-third of its current level Eventually we must live on one-third the emergy

37. Evaluating Energy Sources  For developed nations the impact will be greater  They depend on nonrenewable resources for 80-90% of their energy  They will eventually have to reduce either their populations or their living standard (emergy use) by 80- 90%.

38. Evaluating Energy Sources  However, with reduced populations we can look forward to a new but smaller agrarian economy, green again, enriched with knowledge developed in the fuel-rich century of complexity

39. Transition

40.  As we pass through ‘transition’, how do we… Sustain nations? Sustain people?

41. Sustaining a Nation Chapter 11

42. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  To extend the summit we need to sustain inputs (national emergy budget) and waste it less  We need incentives to encourage favorable balances of international exchange and energy conservation

43. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Cooperation in climax ecosystems  Ecosystem analogies suggest good national policy  Except in early stages of colonization, cooperation among units maximizes empower  Keeping the climate stable helps sustain the economy Ecosystem Engineers

44. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Cooperation in climax ecosystems  Making trading partners prosperous assures continued jobs at home  Sharing military expenditures reduces the costs of defense for each nation Mutualism

45. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  National energy policy  Nations should maintain access to those primary fuel sources with the highest emergy yield ratios

46. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Trade policy  Nations should seek to maintain a positive emergy exchange  With a positive emergy trade balance, nations can maintain what is essential in their way of life for some time

47. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Trade policy  For equitable trade between any two nations, all exchanges should be balanced (except fuel imports) with treaties for emergy equity

48. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Trade policy  Only fuel exporters should receive a negative emergy exchange, but due to their fortune in fuels they should easily sustain a high standard of living by using a sufficient portion of fuel for their own domestic development Dubai

49. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Trade policy  All countries should limit exports of raw products, and use them within their country  Countries that sell raw products almost always receive less emergy in international trade than is embodied in the product Exports of real wealth

50. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Domestic resource use  Resource use at home lowers prices of food, housing, paper, and fuel within a country and raises the standard of living  Less energy goes for transportation

51. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Positive emergy trade balance is aided by:  Energy conservation, especially by eliminating wasted emergy of cars and fuel  Trade treaties that moderate inequities of free trade  Military costs that are shared more widely

52. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Fuel should be made available globally in markets  Importing fuels is good for any economy  Policy should not discourage fuel imports  At current prices, an economy receives more economic stimulation from fuels than it pays out  Taxes on productive use of fuels dampen an economy  Using fuels for unproductive activity is a waste

53. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  New policies should emphasize:  Information innovation  Efficiency rather than speed  Cooperation rather than competition  Diversity rather than conformity  Good maintenance rather than growth  Suppression of borrowing

54. Sustaining a Nation during Transition  Security for nations and individuals can be sustained by replacing luxury and waste

55. Sustaining People Chapter 12

56. Sustaining People during Transition  To sustain people during transition, we will need:  New levels of efficiency  A ceiling on personal income (maximum wage)  Public works programs at a living minimum wage

57. Sustaining People during Transition  We will need:  To ensure full employment, increase productivity, and reduce costs of welfare and crime  Part-time work for elders, elimination of early retirement, and protection of the trust funds of social security

58. Sustaining People during Transition  We will need:  A universal public baseline health care system  Expensive medicines may continue to be available through private insurance

59. Sustaining People during Transition  A tradition of free consumption hurts the economy by wasting emergy

60. Sustaining People during Transition  Our collective love of the automobile limits other things – jobs, health, education and environment quality  We can sustain for some time what is most important in mature nations

61. Descent

62.  As we move into ‘descent’, what should we expect, and how do we react? Starting Down Reorganizing Cities Restoring Waters Refreshing the Landscape Transmitting Knowledge

63. Starting Down Chapter 13

64. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  There should be task forces throughout society working on descent  Within one generation we could see a reversal of attitude so that descent is good and 20 th Century growth is bad  (very likely, already happening)

65. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  We should change attitudes now to avoid the inefficiency of trial and error  The education system should teach the changes necessary for a prosperous way down

66. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  To maintain the standard of living, the population has to decrease at the same or greater rate as the empower  With less wealth (emergy) to process, the money supply needs to be decreased to avoid inflation

67. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Policies should stop commodity exports except those necessary to generate the dollars for imported fuels and information

68. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  During descent banks may acquire new roles such as financing contraction  Especially in a time of descent the real wealth system can hold its monetary value better than bank savings

69. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  A mechanism is needed to program a gradual, noncatastrophic deflation of the excess money held in stocks and bonds

70. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Perhaps the most important descent policy is cutting salaries uniformly  They propose an international minimum living wage, agreed to by treaty

71. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Information centers may be expected to develop more around mountains where hydro power is more abundant  If descent is to be prosperous, priority has to go to sustain global information systems

72. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  To be prosperous, descent requires a reduced population, less money, and smaller salaries

73. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Governments and banks will need to help finance initiatives for downsize and redevelopment  The economy will issue fewer stocks and bonds, borrow less, and develop lower interest rates

74. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  International treaties can control global capitalism with an international minimum wage  With less energy and a shortened energy hierarchy, some achievements of the climax civilization must become dormant Ancient library of Alexandria

75. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Landscapes can be expected to organize with fewer cars  Information and medicine can be given priority by allocation of electric power

76. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  A deliberate plan for change to avoid apocalypse needs global attention  People will need to understand the changes and share a vision of a less- intensive but better world Maya

77. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Make beneficial descent the collective purpose for this century  Dedicate TV drama, literature, and art to adventures about descent  Accept small annual declines in empower use Teach descent

78. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Maintain a stable emergy use per person by reducing populations in a humanitarian way  Remove all incentives, dogma, and approval for excess reproduction  Reduce salaries and wages as necessary to maintain full employment Reduce population, maintain full employment

79. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Keep the emergy- money ratio stable by adjusting the money in circulation  Borrow less and reduce expectations of profit from stock markets Emergy/Money Ratio

80. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Develop economic incentives for reducing consumption  Develop public opinion, laws, and taxes to discourage unproductive resource use

81. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Sustain the production of the environment  Consolidate knowledge for long- term preservation

82. Starting Down – Beginning Descent  Guidelines for Orderly Descent  Prioritize the communication of concepts of international respect and cooperation for global sharing

83. Reorganizing Cities Chapter 14

84. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Reintegrating cities with their region of support and influence may help solve severe urban problems while preparing those cities for the decentralization expected in descent  While some cities are still growing, the reorganization to use less fuels is underway in many developed cities

85. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Decentralization is aided if reduced urban populations can cluster around smaller more dispersed centers  Towns are already developing at the beltway-trunk line junctions, starting with the shopping centers there

86. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  In descent people should move closer to their jobs, use bikes more, reduce car use, parking space, and fuel use Bike Commuter

87. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  A public works program can help make changes in city structure while keeping the poor and unemployed in the economy

88. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  We can expect decentralized cities to have:  Less-intense fuel consumption  Less transportation  Less strip advertising  A smaller percent of regional population  Better cycles of materials between cities and environment  Longer rotation of building and renewal  More efficient spatial patterns

89. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Greens including wetlands, ponds, parks, retention basins, and play fields, can be added to depopulated areas City wetlands

90. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  The inner city is likely to retain its roles as a center of information, serving the region through communication technology

91. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  City and Regional Reorganization  Adapt plans, zoning, and incentives to develop surrounding towns (secondary centers)  Provide frequent public transport connecting central cities with the towns Develop surrounding towns

92. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  City and Regional Reorganization  Include the central city and its suburban towns within the same regional government and taxing authority Taxes from both the city and region are combined used to support both

93. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  City and Regional Reorganization  Plan now for times when fuel costs eliminate most private cars  Limit strip development and unnecessary advertising

94. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Central City  Keep the centers of information in the central city (libraries, schools, finance, universities, government offices, and computer centers)  Use communications to connect the centers to the people of the region (television, the Internet, phone networks) Keep information centers in central city

95. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Central City  Remodel and use the buildings that become vacant with decentralization  Restrict cars from centers of information Walking city centers

96. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Surrounding Towns  Restructure the spatial distribution of housing, businesses, and transportation so that housing and environmental amenities can be near the jobs

97. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Surrounding Towns  Encourage diversity of business in smaller centers to help the one-stop shopping that uses less transportation  Transfer unemployed and homeless people to public works jobs in redeveloping smaller towns Diverse small town shopping

98. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Environment  Encourage people to reuse products, to recycle materials from consumers to industry, and to disperse only the dilute, low- transformity wastes to the environment

99. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Environment  Use rural wetlands for recycling city storm waters and wastewaters back to nature Rural Wetlands

100. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Environment  Perforate sidewalks and parking lots to increase percolation of rain so that trees can grow larger  The area of roots receiving water and nutrients needs to be the same as the crown of the mature trees Brick sidewalks let trees grow larger

101. Reorganizing Cities during Descent  Emergy Evaluations  Use emergy evaluation to select land uses with maximum public benefit (different from maximum monetary profit to individuals)  Use empower density and transformity to locate activities

102. Restoring Waters Chapter 15

103. Restoring Waters during Descent  For prosperous descent, the economy as it self- designs can achieve more by fitting into the global hydrologic cycle Hydrological cycle

104. Restoring Waters during Descent  More empower is generated by adapting society to the multiple values of rivers, estuaries, and beaches

105. Restoring Waters during Descent  Human settlements and the ecosystems around the rivers can reorganize so that the economy better fits the water system Highly urbanized river and coastal ecosystems

106. Restoring Waters during Descent  Nature’s treatments, properly used, work for the economy so that tax-driven technologies don’t have to fill the same functions: Use floodplains to maintain water quality Restore estuarine circulation Remove jetties Stop pumping coastal groundwaters Operate lower-intensity aquaculture ponds Restore reefs Set levees back from the shore

107. Restoring Waters during Descent  Coastal fisheries can recover when fishing pressure decreases and some of the nutritive discharges are restored

108. Restoring Waters during Descent  The energies of mountain waters will still be needed to produce hydroelectric power for society’s information systems Hualien Hydroelectric Power

109. Refreshing the Landscape Chapter 16

110. Refreshing the Landscape during Descent  During descent, assuming population decrease, society can reorganize rural landscapes symbiotically with decentralized cities  Natural capital can be restored Symbiotic reorganization of cities with rural landscapes

111. Refreshing the Landscape during Descent  Environmental contributions based on renewable resources can be increased by rotating lands, reclaiming and reforesting bare lands, and sustaining complex forests and biodiversity Complex forest Rotating and fallowing fields

112. Refreshing the Landscape during Descent  Less-intensive agriculture and forestry will require more lands and more labor  Recycling can replace most mining Labor-intensive rural farming

113. Transmitting Knowledge Chapter 17

114. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Part of global information is in the intellectual knowledge of society, and part is biotic information in the genes of humans and the Earth’s life-support biodiversity

115. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Sustaining the biotic information depends on maintaining large areas of diverse ecosystems through critical times of transition when human populations exceed resources Maintain vast areas of forest

116. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  There are resource limits to the amount of genetic and knowledge information that can be sustained  This is because of the great wealth (in emergy) used to develop and maintain information (which means that its transformities are high) Information is a storage, and like other storages requires energy to be maintained

117. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Only part of our information will be used by our civilization in descent  For adaptability and long range progress, we also need to preserve unused knowledge Ancient library of Alexandria in Egypt preserved much unused knowledge from antiquity

118. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  To maintain knowledge, the institutions for education, communication, and technology will require large amounts of electrical power Hydropower for electricity

119. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Information processing by television helps develop a globally shared culture and peace ethic  But to be efficient, society has to set television priorities among serious purpose, advertisement, and entertainment 1.Serious purpose 2... 3... 4... 5... 6... 7... 8.Entertainment 9.Advertisement Set TV Priorities

120. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Reorganize jurisdictions, laws, taxes, and budgets to give a state- approved standard education to all children (Taiwan has this)  Require this standard for private schools also

121. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Provide daycare for small children, extending through normal working hours as an automatic part of all schools  Provide preschool orientation and help in school to those of different languages with the goal that they can be taught in the nations’ primary language without handicap School extending through working hours of parents

122. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Provide after-school activities for all ages  Replace high-energy interschool sports teams – oriented toward championships and a few stars – with intraschool sports that include all students  Applies to US, not Taiwan

123. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Provide a unified ‘systems’ course in energy, economics, and environment taught by teachers trained to relate these fields to global change A ‘systems’ textbook

124. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Let about half of what is taught be according to standards of federal, state, and local authorities, with the goal of sharing common knowledge and achieving basic skills  Let the other half be left for teachers to generate innovations, creativity, and progress Creative learning activities

125. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Encourage the use of new technology like computers and the Internet, experimenting with various new ways of using these in teaching

126. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Organize school schedules to occupy students in learning through the whole day and year-round  Learning can include after-class projects, internships, and vocational experiences making use of community help

127. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Let schools supplement medical care, nutrition, and job placement for students who do not get this at home  Use parent-teacher activities to get more community support for all the children

128. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Suggestions for Educational Efficiency  Organize district- wide programs for racial and ethnic variety in schools

129. Transmitting Knowledge through Descent  Education is the transmitter of knowledge  With the right kind of downsizing, nonacademic waste can be eliminated and the university’s intellectual functions emphasized  The great university, although smaller, may be the best hope for leading descent and preserving knowledge from the Era of Growth The ‘great university’ is small in size, but focused solely on academic functions

130. Restoration

131. Stewardship for the Period of Restoration  If the Earth is to maximize its performance through the full cycle of growth, transition, descent, and restoration, a human culture will be needed that assists environmental restoration

132. Stewardship for the Period of Restoration  We may expect ethics to develop in which people collectively aid net production processes that restore the resource reserves, the soils, the forests, the peat deposits, and the mineral deposits moving slowly up from the ground in the Earth cycles

133. Stewardship for the Period of Restoration  As sometimes attributed to past cultures, people may find glory in being an agent of the Earth

134. Stewardship for the Period of Restoration  It remains to be seen whether the social mechanisms will be conscious, logical, emotional, ritualistic, regimented, or by some means that we can’t imagine

135. Stewardship for the Period of Restoration  All members of society must preserve knowledge, sustain progress, and serve the Earth in ways appropriate to the stage of its cycle