1. North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study
North Carolina Sea Level Rise Science Forum
January 14, 2010
John Dorman, Geospatial and Technology Management Office

2. Impetus Behind Study
North Carolina has been identified by NOAA as one of three states with significant vulnerability to sea level rise
Largest estuarine system on U.S. Atlantic coast:
Extensive barrier island chain, with several reaches vulnerable to over wash and breaching.
2,300 square miles of coastal land vulnerable to a 1.1 m SLR.
The potential exposure demand an evaluation of the potential impacts to the ecology, environment, society, and economy of North Carolina
The intent of this study / assessment is to:
Define the risks associated with SLR and increased storminess;
Support and facilitate the establishment and implementation of successful adaptation strategies

3. Origin of Study House Report 110-862, 2009 DHS Appropriations Bill
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ON FUTURE DISASTERS
The Committee is concerned that FEMA does not have a robust climate change program in place to assess the potential impact of future disasters on its ability to prepare for, mitigate against, and respond to natural disasters; its managing of the National Flood Insurance Fund; and its efforts to help maintain accurate maps of the nation's flood plains. To begin to address the shortfall in information about the impact of climate change, the Committee provides $5,000,000 for the State of North Carolina to perform a risk assessment and mitigation strategy demonstration of the potential impacts of sea level rise in that state associated with long-term climate change. FEMA is directed to use the study results to assess the long-term fiscal implications of climate change as it affects the frequency and impacts of natural disasters, and to disseminate information from the study to other states to inform their climate change mitigation efforts.

4. High-level Questions for the Study
What changes to coastal flooding hazards will possibly occur between 2009 and 2100 due to sea level rise and storminess?
What built and living systems will be exposed to coastal flooding from sea level rise and increased storminess?
What possible impacts / consequences (e.g. financial) will occur on the exposed built and living systems?
What short-term and long-term strategies will result in efficient and effective prevention and/or alleviation of exposure and consequences from sea level rise and increased storminess? 4

5. Study Scope
Develop reasonable scenarios of potential sea level rise, ‘storminess’, flooding, and development conditions for 4 “time slices” through 2100.
Use these scenarios to perform system-wide risk assessments of (direct and indirect impact):
Permanent flooding (sea level rise)
Temporary flooding (tides, surge, wave heights)
Annualized damages, 100 & 500-yr events, adjusted historical events
Consider dynamic interactions (avoid bathtub approach) 5

6. Study Scope, cont.
Identify efficient and effective risk management strategies including:
Public policy
Planning and zoning requirements
Codes and standards
Environmental
Structural
Analysis and monitoring
Outreach
Study will not include:
Assessment of actions to reduce GHG emissions
Impacts of inland rainfall flooding (limited to historical event simulations)
Wind (as a separate hazard)
Other natural hazards (e.g., drought, heat waves)
Community-level action plans 6

7. Risk Assessment Approach
Source-Pathway-Receptor (SPR) Framework
Source: climate/weather events
Pathway: routes taken to receptors
Receptors: natural, built environments, society, industry

8. Conceptual Framework

9. Risk = HP x V x C (direct + indirect)
Defining Risk
Risk = HP x V x C (direct + indirect)
Resilience
HP = Hazard Probability
V = Vulnerabilities
C = Consequences

10. Risk Assessment – Types of Losses with SLR10

11. Economic Modeling Approach

12. New Data / Methodologies / Models
SoVi / Uvi into Risk Assessment 12

13. Answers / data / models / products will be:
Repeatable
Defensible
Quantitative
Transferable and Non-proprietary
Scalable
Spatial
Risk Assessment Completed by December 2010
Risk Management Strategy Analysis by July 2011

14. Study Audience Secondary Study Audience
Primary Study Audience – The primary audience for this study are federal and state government policy makers
U.S. Congress
North Carolina General Assembly
Governor
FEMA \NFIP
Other Coastal States
Secondary Study Audience
Coastal Counties / Municipalities
NC State Departments with Regulatory Authority
US Department of Defense - Military Bases in North Carolina coastal areas
DHS – NIPP
Federal Agencies with Regulatory Authority (i.e., NOAA, EPA, USACE)

15. Study Strategy
Will leverage relevant existing, in-process, and planned information sources to maximum degree practicable:
Datasets
e.g., topography, critical infrastructure, shoreline
Models
e.g., hazard Identification, risk assessment
Research/Studies
e.g, sea level rise studies, socioeconomic forecasts
Coordinate with, and build upon other studies
Scenario-based approach to address an uncertain future
Seek broad input throughout phased-study process
Collaborative effort of state and federal agencies, UNC system, private sector, other stakeholders
Build consensus and acceptance through Advisory Committee

16. Scenario-Based Approach
Scenarios of combined potential sea level rise, storminess, resultant flooding, development and socioeconomic conditions for 4 “time slices” through 2100:
2025, 2050, 2075, 2100
Each scenario representing an equally plausible future condition, and having equal likelihood of occurrence
In sum, representing the full range future conditions
Starting point for examining questions about an uncertain future
Not specific predictions or forecasts

17. Conceptual Scenario Approach
Overlapping scenarios allows efficiency in modeling and assessment efforts.

18. Data/Study Leveraging
The Study will leverage relevant existing, in-process, and planned information sources to maximum degree practicable:
Datasets
e.g., topography, critical infrastructure, shoreline
Methodologies / Models
e.g., hazard Identification, risk assessment
Research/Studies
e.g, sea level rise studies, socioeconomic forecasts
Acquire new data as deemed necessary and that will be available within time and budget
Develop new methodologies to fill existing inadequacies. 18

19. North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program
DFIRM Data
Digital GIS-data collected by the NCFMP to support the production of DFIRMs.
All data are, or will shortly be, statewide.
Data are available for download by county.
Imagery
DFIRM Mapping Data
Engineering & Inventory Data 19

20. Topography State-wide LiDAR
2001, 2003, 2005
≤ 20 cm vert. RMSE
3 m nom. point spacing
Seamless 10-m DEM assembled for surge study 20

21. Storm Surge Model
North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program Storm Surge Study
Conducting update of coastal flood frequency elevations for entire state
Coupled 2-D water circulation (ADCIRC) and wave model (SWAN & WW3)
~100 m horizontal resolution along coast
JPM frequency analysis of extra-tropical and tropical event driven storm surge
Baseline return period analysis will consider 675 tropical events
Utilizing RENCI HPC resources
Model framework will be leveraged to highest extent possible 21

22. Integrated Hazard Risk Management
Collect and merge locations and parcel data for all buildings > 1,000 ft2 (footprint area) ~7.5 million
Documented locations and interdependencies between all Critical Infrastructure / Key Resources (18 DHS Sectors)
Capturing First / Finished Floor Elevations for all coastal counties
Collected socioeconomic data (SoVi and UVi)

23. Integrated Hazard Risk Management
Model Critical Infrastructure Failure Interdependencies
Damage / Consequence Methodology by Hazard
Develop of Enhanced Risk Communication Tools

24. Advisory Committee Comprised of members from:
State agencies
Federal agencies
Universities
Stakeholder organizations
Other public and private sector experts
Purpose is to ensure a broad range of viewpoints are considered and to build consensus on the final study results
Advisory Committee Role:
Assist with identification of existing and in process datasets and studies of relevance
Provide input on proposed analytical approaches and policy strategies
Review and provide feedback on draft and final analytical study results and reports
See Table 8 in study plan for members

25. Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study Process and Timeline
Dec 2010
July 2011
Current Status 25

26. Current Activities
Final review by Advisory Committee on the detail study questions that support the four High-Level Study questions.
Completing review of past and present studies to document methodologies and modeling
Assessment of the existing institutional capabilities of the state to address / confront sea level rise in North Carolina
Select data acquisition – (e.g. finished floor elevations)
Review of proposed methodologies associated with:
Coastal Geomorphology Evolution Analysis
Modifying / Utilizing ADCIRC/JPM to Support NC Sea Level Rise Risk Study
Modeling Land Use / Development Scenarios

27. Thank You