Presentation on theme: "Workshop Inter-industry Accounts Workshop WP 1, 15-16 September 2005, Groningen This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate."— Presentation transcript:
Workshop Inter-industry Accounts Workshop WP 1, 15-16 September 2005, Groningen This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 6th Framework Programme, Priority 8, "Policy Support and Anticipating Scientific and Technological Needs".
Why this workshop? EUKLEMS meeting Helsinki, June 2005 Aim of WP 1: internationally comparable set of current and constant price SUT for Europe (Eurostat, OECD). Aim of this workshop: Country reports, presentations, bilateral contacts Restricted preliminary database ready January 2006. Data in by mid-November this year. Fit with plans NSO (but perhaps faster, longer, more elaborate) Need for flexibility and creativity Need to agree on (mechnical) short-cuts to be taken Each countrys situation is different.
Set up Set-up of program, esp. Friday Contact persons Pirkko Aulin-Ahmavaara: Finland, Sweden, Spain Joerg Beutel: Germany, Belgium, Austria Mun Ho: France, UK, Italy Marcel Timmer: Eastern Europe, Netherlands, Denmark, rest Introduction
MFP growth Need value shares and volume growth rates of gross output, intermediate inputs (EMS), labour (L) and capital services (K) at industry level
SUTs Collect data in consistent framework: Supply and Use tables (SUT). Consistency between input and output, and various prices Data useful for wider applications (tax reforms, role of trade and transport, macro-economic modelling, energy, IO-analysis etc.) Why SUT and not Input-output tables? IO are derived from SUT SUT available from 1995 onwards Easier to deflate and balance
Classifications EUK industry list Starting point A60 of Eurostat Additional breakdown for High tech sectors Future revisions Imputed rent EUK product list is equal to industry list, but detail is less important than for industry!
Required Supply and Use tables 1. USE table for domestic output at basic prices 2. USE table for imports at basic (c.i.f.) prices 3. SUPPLY table at basic prices 4. VALUATION matrices (on domestic and on imports) a. Use-side trade margin table (retail and wholesale) b. Use-side transport margin table c. Use-side non-deductible VAT on commodities d. Use-side other taxes net of subsidies on commodities
Availability of SUTs A. Long series of constant SUT: Denmark, Finland, Netherlands and France. B. Short series of constant price SUT for 1990s and IO tables for earlier years: Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden C. Long-term series of current price SUT and IO and reasonable deflators: Italy, Austria, UK, Spain D. without reasonable (service) deflators: Belgium, Ireland E. Countries with no SUT or IO before 1995: Eastern European countries, Greece, Portugal NB Countries are all going through revisions in this year (including FISIM and annual chained Laspeyres, hedonics, etc.)
Steps National Accounts data on gross output and value added at current and constant prices: Post 2005 revision (1995 onwards or earlier): EUK 72 Pre 2005 revision (from 1970 to 1995 or earlier): EUK 72? (What about WP 2/WP3?) Need to solve industry classification breaks (e.g. Germany)? ESA 95 compatible Old series useful, if only for deflators? Current and constant price SUTs: post 2005 revision EUK 72 Current price SUT pre 2005 revision, or IO-tables: EUK 72? Derive consistent series of current price SUT and deflate
Derivation of time series of current price SUTs (1) Our default option is to generate long-term series of ESA 95 NA compatible SUTs with FISIM distributed Steps to be taken 1. Start with benchmark tables and latest NA output and value added series. 2. Make SUT ESA95 compatible - software (move from intermediate to investment, add in own account software), transport services, government depreciation reallocation - industrial classification NACE 1 (EUK) - FISIM (e.g Spain) - taxes on products and production - other…… 3. Interpolation techniques for non-benchmark years (presentations by Mun Ho, Kurt Kratena)
Current price SUTs (2) Estimation of valuation matrices: Often only total margins, total net tax etc. Blow up to total matrix (presentation Antti Pasanen) IO-tables can be transformed into SUT (presentation Jörg Beutel) Industry breakdowns Industry classification and level of detail does not need to be constant across countries and/or over time Keep as much detail as possible! Trade-off in detail and resources More important than product breakdown Simple short cut: gross output from census. Assume same input structure
Current price SUTs (3) For projection and retrojection: Eurostat method (presentation Jörg Beutel): based on value added and final demand totals from National Accounts Kratena (2005) Alternative: make series of ESA79/NACE0 and link to ESA95 series
Constant price SUTs Basics: Default: use chained Paasche price indices and Laspeyres volume indices Deflate at lowest level possible Deflate intermediate use at basic price Need to deflate margins and net taxes as well Assumption 1: Basic prices are identical in all uses. Assumption 2: industry outputs at both current and constant prices have to be equal to National Accounts values Starting point: (implicit) gross output deflator (basic price) from NA All products from industry j have same basic price, so basic price of product i differs by producing industry Calculate domestic basic price of i using Supply table Deflate row in Use Table with this basic price Hence SUT rows are balanced
Way forward SUT framework is overarching framework Keep details where possible Need for short cuts Intrapolation, valuation matrices, IO to SUT, deflation Important to document basic data sources and methodologies used (share experiences!) Bilateral consultation with other members Data delivery Mid-November, final May 2006. What is important? What can most easily be done? When are revisions expected? Make planning Special issue Economic System Research
Road ahead Priorities, mid-November 1. National accounts series on gross output, value added, intermediate inputs in current and deflators (or volume measures), revision 2005, EUK 72, 1970-2003/4 Break in industrial classification (share bridge tables) Lack of industry detail Change in ESA79/95 2. Time series of current price SUT, revision 2005, EUK 72, 1995 (or earlier!)-2002 Supply table at basic prices with trade and tax/sub columns Use table at purchasers prices Valuation matrices where possible (benchmark? Short cuts: Antti) Breakdown import/domestic where possible (benchmark?) Interpolation for missing years (default method RAS, be careful with margins) Industry detail, product detail less important Match with NA series
Road ahead 3.Time series of constant price SUT, revision 2005, EUK 72, 1995 (or earlier!)-2002 If needed, short cut deflation method (Groningen?) 4. Time series of current price SUT, pre-revision, EUK?, 19xx-1995 From IO to SUT (Joerg), followed by interpolation (Mun) Backcasting (Kurt): get time-series of final demand (bridge matrices), add in any information you have on II. Backcasting with minimum of data (EURO method) Experimentation! 5. Time series of constant price SUT, pre-revision, EUK?, 19xx-1995
Way forward Keep details where possible Important to document basic data sources and methodologies used (share experiences!) Bilateral consultation with other members Data delivery Mid-November, final May 2006. What is important? What can most easily be done? When are revisions expected? Make planning Write-up (Marcel), bilateral feedback on country reports Special issue Economic System Research IO-conference in Sendai, July 2006