1. 6 th Regional Coordination Meeting Amman - November 11-12, 2014 Water Management Strategies and potential impacts on Livelihoods in (TUNISIA)

2. WLI Goal and national policy Please insert a picture that represents your work Overall Goal: to improve the livelihoods of rural households and communities in areas where water scarcity, land degradation, and associated problems are prevalent. Intended Outputs: 1.Assessment of climate change effects on agro-systems 2.Management tools for Integrated water and land use 3.Enhanced knowledge, skills and qualifications for key stakeholders. 4. Tools for assessment of rural livelihoods improvements National Policy Objectives in Tunisia : 1. Increasing the income per capita and reducing poverty 2. Enhancing food self-sufficiency 3. Water saving and rational use of natural resources

3. Improvement of water management in rangeland and crop- based production systems through field testing, adaptation and monitoring effects of water harvesting, irrigation management and using saline water to improve crop and livestock productivity. Quantification of benefits from improved interventions and adaptation measures in terms of water savings and enhanced benefit/cost ratio Assess future scenarios for Global Climate Change (GCC) and impacts on water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods for consideration by decision-makers Capacity building for implementation, analysis and assessment of all adaptation measures Outscaling and dissemination of outputs to other areas in Tunisia and WLI partnering countries

4. Research themes ASSESS FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GCC AND IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES, AGRICULTURE, AND LIVELIHOODS WATER MANAGEMENT IN RANGELANDS AND CROP PRODUCTION SYSTEMS QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED INTERVENTIONS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES Capacity building Post doc placement in US Laboratories Trainings Outscaling and Dissemination Workshops and seminarsPublications

5. Description of the 3 sites S3 : South 150,000 ha Range 150-230 mm Small irrigation schemes (Fruit trees, Vegetables) Water harvesting 50,000 inhabitants 5 (3-10 ha) S1 : North 50km x 50 km 450 mm Durum wheat, Citrus S2 : Centre 740,000 ha 240 mm (80-2000) Barley Livestock Cactus 410,000 inhab. 2914 ha 2241 hab. (2002) 8 (1-2 ha each) Site Surface area Rainfall Targeted Agrosystem Population Benchmark site surface area Population Pilot sites

7. Mechanisms for Community Inclusion Site Advisory Group Members CRDA Médenine CRDA Sidi Bouzid CRDA Nabeul CTA Béni Khalled Please insert a picture here Associations Benefitted (FTF indicator) Farmers, NGOs Farmers, NGO Farmers

8. Understanding Water Management: Basin-level

9. Distribution characteristics of Temperature have been determined for the northern site using historical data (1911-2000), focus on January.

10. Quintile to quintile plot for the coldest month (January), showing a steady increase in temperature over the last century. Distribution statistics will be used for correcting ARPRGE forecasts of CC.

11. Calibration and validation of SWAT model for Oued Rmel watershed Precipitation series Case study of Wadi Rmel, nothern Tunisia. Case study of Wadi Rmel, nothern Tunisia. Work on rainfall-runoff simulation using two rainfall-runoff models GR2M and SWAT

12. Canal-water uptake by farmers in the citrus growing area of Benikhalled (Nabeul governorate), showing an important shift in the frequency of exceedence over 2013.

13. Climate change and its impacts on barley production : Case of Sidi Bouzid Growing season rainfall evolution (mm) RCP4.5RCP8.5 2020-2030-6%+11% 2050-2060-13%-2% 2080-2090-37%-26% Barley yield evolution RCP4.5RCP8.5 2021-2029+58%+32% 2051-2059+24%-22% 2080-2090-39%-3% Annual rainfall (1999-2013) : 229 mm Average growing season rainfall: 160 mm (observed) Barley grain yield (2002-2013) : 277 kg/ha (observed) (Annabi priliminary results) GCM= HadGEM2-ES/ Crop model= DSSAT - Various effect of rainfall patterns change with interaction with CO 2 level increase (RCP4.5<RCP8.5) and with other weather parameters: T (+2-4°C)…; - Uncertainties  Need to Compare several GCMs ongoing with MRI-CGCM, IPSL)

14. Improving Water and Land Management: Field Level

15. Relationship between water deficits and orange production in dry environments. Experiment conducted in a drip irrigated orchards, situated in Megarine (governorate of Medenine).

16. Aquacrop model performance for barley

17. AquaCrop model / simulation of the biomass / wheat /

19. Yield components Grain yield of barley (kg/ha) under different scenarios adaptation tested Biological yield of barley (kg/ha) under different scenarios adaptation tested

20. WUE Grain-WUE of barley under different scenarios adaptation tested Biological-WUE of barley under different Scenarios adaptation tested

21. Yield components Under rainfed condition Under Supplemental irrigation

22. WUE Under rainfed condition Under Supplemental irrigation

23. Understanding and improving Livelihoods : Understanding and improving Livelihoods : Cost benefit analysis of agricultural adaptation options to climate change

24. RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF ZOGHMAR Net present value (NPV) (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013 Alternative land uses Farmer’s perspectiveNational perspective Cactus1220 726 Cactus in alley + pasture1669 800 Cactus in alley+ barley1913 366 Non intervention : Rangelands This analysis confirms that integrated livestock, crop and forage net income is more climate resilient.

25. RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF ZOGHMAR NPV (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013 Non intervention : Rainfed barley Irrigation constitutes the best adaptation alternative at farm perspective, but better information is needed to assess the cost of water degradation.

26. RESULTS : IMPACT OF CACTUS FEEDING ON FARMER’ INCOME

27. RESULTS : PROFITABILITY OF OLIVE TREES PLANTATION AT FARMER, NATIONAL SOCIETY AND GLOBAL COMMUNITY PERSPECTIVE : CASE OF ZOGHMAR NPV (8%, 60 years) in TND/ha - 2013

28. IRR % Observed Private perspective24% Social perspective23% NPV (DT) Discount rate 12%10%8%Costs + 10 %Benefits - 20 % Private perspective24913615523123401691 Social perspective20733027440219101333 Case study 2 : Water harvesting techniques investment at farm level Net Present Value (30 years), WHT investment

29. Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) Natural capitalFinancial capitalPhysical capitalHuman capitalSocial capital Livestock Farm seize Land quality Water quality Olive trees Agriculture income Livestock income Off-farm income Jessour Ownership of plowing means Education, Household seize Age Households expenditure Member of association, Distance to nearest hospital, Certificate of Ownership, SONEDE network List of indicators by type of livelihood capital

30. Social capital is the most dominating capital followed by physical capital. Financial capital seems to be not representative due to the low agriculture and livestock incomes. Projections indicate that the livelihood assets will be changed during 2013-2030 period : Physical, human and social capital will be improved with very little increment in financial capital. Natural capital will slowly decrease.

31. Summary of Enhanced Knowledge, Skills and Qualifications at the Benchmark Site

32. POST DOC PLACEMENTS IN US LABS CandidateM. AnnabiF. MokhN. Sghaier Organization INRATIRAINAT Hosting Lab Vegetable and Forage Crop Research Unit (USDA-ARS, Prosser, WA) Conservation and Production Research Laboratory (USDA- ARS, Bushland, Texas) USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory (Beltsville, MD) Supervisors Dr Ashok AlvaDr. Paul D. ColaizziDr.Martha Anderson Period Jan-Mar14; Jul-Sep14Jun-Nov14Sept14-Feb15 Topic Estimating the effect of the future climate change on durum wheat productivity in Northern Tunisia and the potential benefits of conservation agricultural and sowing date advancing Irrigation management and crop water modeling Performance evaluation of ALEXI Evapotranspiration model in Northern Tunisia

33. TRAININGS Aquacrop Training in partnership with FAO; WLI Modeling Thematic Group, Cairo (August 24-28, 2014) Regional Training Workshop on Cost Benefit Analysis, Thematic Group: Economics of Natural Resources Management, Amman - Jordan (June 24-25, 2014) Catalyzing Change through the Impact Pathway and Theories of Change; WLI Socio-Economic Thematic Group, Amman (April 16-17, 2014) DEGREES MSc theses, PhD theses, etc.

34. Challenges, Needs and Opportunities

35. Themes/ActionsGeographical/EcozonesScale (up/outscaling) SYNERGIES

36. INTERNATIONAL CONVNETIONS NATIONAL STRATEGIES REGIONAL PROJECTS LOCAL PROJECTS CRP WLI

37. CRP-DS

38. FUTURE PROSPECTS Modelling: CC model downscaling Adaptation, calibration and validation of used models Monitoring More advanced field monitoring equipments and methods Use of RS techniques for spatial analysis Practices Test the various practices: irrigation scheduling, deficit, irrigation, WH-SI, intercropping, conservation agriculture, etc. Try other innovative practices

39. Economic and social studies Social acceptance and farmer willingness Economic evaluation of adaptation options Assessing the impacts on farmer incomes and livelihood Water resources allocation Capacity building, exchanges and networking Post doc and researchers exchanges in both directions Networking with US Labs and Univ. Provide advanced trainings on specific topics Dissemination and Outreach International IF journal papers Books Interactive decision making tools (portals) Extension tools and materials

40. Draft Workplan for 2015: Accelerated Schedule 20152014 1211109876543211211 Improve Water Mgt Strategies Monitoring / Modeling Reporting Publication Improve Livelihoods Data analysis & reporting Publication Exchange Knowledge Stakeholder workshops/trainings Publication Quarterly & Annual Reporting Monitoring WLI Indicators

41. National Research Teams IRAINRATINAT Bio-physical Component Houcine Khatteli Mohamed Ouessar Kamel Nagaz Mongi Ben Zaied Fathia El Mokh Amal Hachani Abderrahmen Sghaier Mohamed Ben Hammouda Mohamed Annabi Hatem Cheik Mhamed Salah Ben Youssef Netij Ben Mechlia Hammadi Habaieb Moncef Masmoudi Nabil Sghaier Asma Lasram Nawal Temani Zayani Socio- economic Component Mongi Sghaier Mohamed Abdeladhim Riadh Bechir Hamed Daly-Hassen Najoua Esaaidi, Engineer Maher Bel Haj Kacem, Engineer student Thank you

42. Local stakeholders SouthCentreNorth CRDA Médenine Farmers Local NGOs CRDA Sidi Bouzid Farmers CTA Béni Khalled GDA Famers US LabsVegetable and Forage Crops Production Research Lab, Prosser, Washington Soil and Water Management Research Lab, Bushland, Texas Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, Beltsville, Maryland (in partnership with NASA on MENA WISP Project) Dr Ashok AlvaDr. Paul D. Colaizzi Dr Steve Evett Dr.Martha Anderson