1. Budgeting Example Let’s watch a fairly realistic Worldcon Newsletter budget as it evolves.

2. A budget must be a living document. Even at an established regional where the budget is much the same from year to year, it will change. For a one- shot where the the basic nature of the convention is still being developed, it will change profoundly. Most one-shot budgets begin as a series of guesses and estimates which are then refined -- or changed substantially if plans change enough. To make this work it's essential to have a way of describing the reliability of a budget line item.

3. Kinds of budget items WAG (Wild Ass Guess) Just what it says. Hopefully it's a bit better than a purely random number, but it may not be. GuessIt's still very uncertain and not very scientifically derived, but it's better than a WAG. (This might also be called an "educated guess".) EstimateWith an estimate we're claiming some knowledge, so this ought to have a degree of reliability. QuoteWe've actually gotten a quotation or a price. This should be reliable. ActualThe money's been spent and we know how much. AllotmentThe above five categories are appropriate when we know what we want to do or buy, and need to figure out how much it costs. Sometimes, though, we decide that we're going to spend $XX and buy whatever that will pay for. (E.g., we decide we're going to spend $200 on decorations for a party where we know we could do much more if the funds were available.) Unlike the others which should progress from WAG to Guess to Estimate to Actual during the course of the convention, an Allotment item will typically stay the same. (It may, of course, change if we change what we plan to spend, but that’s a different thing.)

4. Getting started I’ll use dates for a nominal Labor Day 2009 Worldcon. The first budget is a placeholder: Newsletter$2500based on last year's cost.

5. December 2007 (21 months) As soon as the Chairman is thinking about budgeting at all, we construct the rudimentary, all estimates, first budget. This is one of the earliest steps in the planning process and need not be done by the person running the area or even the division head. Note that it lays out the current thinking about number of copies, number of issues, printing technology. A budget communicates more than just dollars and cents. Paper$ 180.00Estimate: 8 issues, 2500 single sheet copies/issue, $4.50/ream Toner$ 200.00WAG: I'm guessing at cartridge price. We'll need two cartridges, but will only partly use them and can probably sell the used cartridges. Copier rental$1500.00WAG: I haven't a clue what copier rental is these days. Note that we need to decide if these will be procured by Newsletter or Logistics. Electricity$350.00WAG: The copies may need more than standard power Supplies$100.00WAG: Some supplies will probably be needed Total$2310.00

6. June 2008 (14 months) Someone's been appointed to run Newsletter and some research on copier rental has been done and the budget has been refined. Paper$ 180.00Estimate: 8 issues, 2500 single sheet copies/issue, $4.50/ream Toner$ 200.00WAG: I'm guessing at cartridge price. We'll need two cartridges, but will only partly use them and can probably sell the used cartridges. Copier rental$1600.00Guess: Copiers seem to run from $550 to $800 each for six days and we'll need two. Going with the high end for now. ElectricityAll the copiers we've been looking at run on standard house current, so this line is zeroed. Supplies$100.00WAG: Some supplies will probably be needed Total$2060.00

7. Dec 2008 (9 months) The convention attendance projections have increased, so the print runs also increase. We now have decided that we will not be able to resell the cartridges and have a current price for them. Finally, we've discovered that we will have to pay for Internet access in the newsletter office area. Paper$ 240.00Estimate: 8 issues, 3000 single sheet copies/issue, $5/ream Toner$ 258.00Estimate. We'll need two cartridges, and they cost $129 each. No resale value. Copier rental$1600.00Guess: Copiers seem to run from $550 to $800 each for six days and we'll need two. Going with the high end for now. ElectricityAll the copiers we've been looking at run on standard house current, so this line is zeroed. Supplies$100.00WAG: Some supplies will probably be needed Internet access$62.50Estimate: 5 days @ $12.50/day Total$2260.50

8. Mar 2009 (6 months) We now have a contract for the copiers, so we have a firm price. Paper$ 240.00Estimate: 8 issues, 3000 single sheet copies/issue, $5/ream Toner$ 258.00Estimate. We'll need two cartridges, and they cost $129 each. Copier rental$1490.00Quote: 2 copiers from Copiers’R’Us at $745 each. ElectricityAll the copiers we've been looking at run on standard house current, so this line is zeroed. Supplies$100.00WAG: Some supplies will probably be needed Internet access$62.50Estimate: 5 days @ $12.50/day Total$2260.50

9. Jun 2009 (2 months) We just realized that we ignored tax on several items, and that we have to pay for delivery and pickup for the copiers. This is basically the final budget and probably won't be changed again. Paper$ 254.40Estimate: 8 issues, 3000 single sheet cpys/issue, $5/ream +6% tax Toner$ 273.48Estimate. We'll need two cartridges, and they cost $129 each. +6% tax Copier rental$1679.40Quote: 2 copiers at $745 each. +6% tax +$100 pickup and delivery ElectricityAll the copiers we've been looking at run on standard house current, so this line is zeroed. Supplies$100.00WAG: Some supplies will probably be needed Internet access$73.75Estimate: 5 days @ $12.50/day +6% tax Total$2481.03

10. Dec 2009 (actuals) And here’s how it finally came out. Paper$ 254.40Actual: 8 issues, 3000 single sheet cpys/issue, $5/ream +6% tax Toner$ 273.48Actual. We'll need two cartridges, and they cost $129 each. +6% tax Copier rental$1679.40Actual: 2 copiers at $745 each. +6% tax + $100 pickup and delivery ElectricityActual: All the copiers we've been looking at run on standard house current, so this line is zeroed. Supplies$234.78Actual: Some advance supplies, plus one emergency at-con purchase of distribution racks. Internet access$73.75Actual: 5 days @ $12.50/day +6% tax Committee newsletter $185.37Actual: At-con decision to do committee newsletter at Kinkos before Newsletter office was set up Total$2701.18