1. Impacts of Open Arctic to Specific Regions By: Jill F. Hasling, CCM Chief Consulting Meteorologist – MatthewsDaniel Weather September 2014

2. OPEN ARCTIC RECORDS  Since 2007, Summer Open Arctic records are set at 3 year intervals.  Multi-year ice lasts through the summer.  Ice is concentrated on the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean and has disappeared from the Eurasian Arctic waters and coasts.

3. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN ICE EXTENT

4. DIFFERENCE OF ICE CONCENTRATION IN MARCH 2012 AND AUGUST 2012

5. ARCTIC ICE GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2013

6. DRILLING  What does that mean for drilling in the Chukchi Sea and Kara Sea?

7. CHUKCHI SEA DATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA BECOMES NON-ICE COVERED 2007 - 2013

8. Chukchi Sea July 16, 2013

9. Chukchi Sea August 7, 2012

10. Chukchi Sea July 8, 2011

11. Chukchi Sea July 19, 2010

12. Chukchi Sea July 13, 2009

13. Chukchi Sea August 31, 2008

14. Chukchi Sea July 18, 2007

15. CHUKCHI SEA DATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA MARGINAL ICE ZONE RETURNS 2007 - 2013

16. Chukchi Sea November 6, 2013

17. Chukchi Sea November 3, 2012

18. Chukchi Sea November 14, 2011

19. Chukchi Sea October 28, 2010

20. Chukchi Sea November 5, 2009

21. Chukchi Sea November 10, 2008

22. Chukchi Sea October 28, 2007

23. KARA SEA DATE WHEN KARA SEA BECOMES NON- ICE COVERED 2007 - 2013

24. Kara Sea July 28, 2013

25. Kara Sea July 3, 2012

26. Kara Sea July 2, 2011

27. Kara Sea August 22, 2010

28. Kara Sea August 7, 2009

29. Kara Sea August 18, 2008

30. Kara Sea September 1, 2007

31. KARA SEA DATE WHEN KARA SEA MARGINAL ICE ZONE RETURNS 2007 - 2013

32. Kara Sea October 22, 2013

33. Kara Sea November 27, 2012

34. Kara Sea November 9, 2011

35. Kara Sea October 29, 2010

36. Kara Sea November 1, 2009

37. Kara Sea October 13, 2008

38. Kara Sea October 25, 2007

39. OPEN ARCTIC MEANS MORE STORMS ALONG THE ARCTIC CIRCLE

40. OPEN ARCTIC  From 2000 to 2010, about 1,900 cyclones churned across the top of the world each year, leaving warm water and air in their wakes—and melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.  When you narrow the search down to cyclones that occurred directly over the Arctic Ocean, you find more than 200 to 300 storms per year

41. Data from Arctic buoys reporting surface air temperatures and sea level pressure were used to create sparse storm tracks from 1950 to 1972. Buoys also captured the data used to create the more abundant storm tracks from 2000 to 2006. Credit: NASA. 1950 - 1972 2000 - 2006 Russia Canada Greenland Russia Canada Greenland

42. MORE STORMS MEAN…  More storms mean more snow. This means a colder atmosphere as sun’s radiation is reflected back into the space.

44. TRACKS OF POLAR LOWS IN THE SUMMER

45. OBSERVED WAVES  Reviewing the Observed Waves in the Chukchi Sea and the Kara Sea, you see that when the ice retreats the wind fetch increases. If you assume that the near zero wave heights indicate ice, you can see on the following charts that the drilling season could be longer depending on your drilling location.

46. 1979-19881990-19992000-2012 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA (JULY - NOV.)

47. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE KARA SEA (JULY - NOV.) 1979-19881990-19992000-2012

48. YearDate of Ice Retreat Return of the Marginal Ice Zone Chukchi Sea 2013July 16,2013November 6, 2013 2012Aug 17, 2012Nov 3, 2012 2011July 9, 2011Nov 15, 2011 2010July 19. 2010October 28, 2010 2009July 13, 2009Nov 5, 2009 2008August 31, 2008Nov 10, 2008 2007July 18, 2007October 28,2007 CHUKCHI SEA

49. Dates of Ice Free/Freeze Up Kara Gate West Side of Novaya Zemlya Return of Marginal Ice Zone to Kara Gate Return of Marginal Ice Zone West Side of Novaya Zemlya 2013July 29 Nov 11Oct 25 2012June 12July 4Nov 28Nov 26 2011June 22July 2Nov 19Nov 9 2010Aug 11Aug 23Nov 21Oct 29 2009July 20Aug 7Nov 30Nov 1 2008Aug 17Aug 20Nov 30Oct 13 2007Sept 1Aug 18Nov 20Oct 25 KARA SEA

50. FORECAST FOR 2014 Chukchi SeaKara Sea Ice RetreatJuly 18, 2014July 25, 2014 Return of Marginal Ice Zone October 25, 2014

51. CHUKCHI SEA July 18, 2014July 25, 2014

52. KARA SEA July 25, 2014August 4, 2014

53. FORECAST FOR 2015 Chukchi SeaKara Sea Ice RetreatJuly 25, 2015August 4, 2015 Return of Marginal Ice Zone November 2, 2015October 30, 2015

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