1. APCA Will Alcohol “Inebriate” Discussion of the 2007 Farm Bill? Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Minnesota Crop Insurance Conference Morton, MN September 19, 2007

2. APCAIntroduction Are high crop prices the future? Does it matter? Even if prices collapse, self- correction happens, right? What’s the deal with exports? Are exports going to make crop agriculture prosperous or not? WTO implications of export situation Why do we have farm programs? 2007 or 2008 or 2009 Farm Bill

3. APCA In Times of Exploding Demand –The current program will work –Any farm program will work –NO program at all will work The key question is: Are high prices the future?

4. APCA Are High Prices the Future? The 2007 USDA Baseline projects: –Corn demand for ethanol 3.4 billion bushels for 2007—double 2005 3.7 billion bushels in 2008 (AFBF says 4.9) –Over 10 years, baseline prices are north of $3/bu – closer to $4 most years –Very low corn stock levels by historical standards

5. APCA Logical Implications Subsidies for program crops would: –Largely be replaced by market receipts –Cease to be a budgetary problem for the US Federal Government Could even transition the direct (AMTA) payments like Congress’ 1996 intentions –Cease to be a stumbling block in trade negotiations

6. APCA Short-Term Considerations US supply response –Arbitrage of crop acres in US to corn 92.9 million acres 14 million more acres than 2006, highest since the 1940s –Means 11 million acres less soybeans and millions of acres less cotton –Some land converted to cropland; more of such conversion in long-run

7. APCA Short-Term Considerations International corn supply response –Increased international production Mexico: 4 million ac. increase Argentina: 20 percent increase in acreage Brazil: 230 million bushels more “second season corn—80 million to be exported Canada: 10-20 percent increase in acreage –Internationally there may be a decreased need for corn imports from the US

8. APCA Long-Term Considerations US supply response –Conversion of pasture and grassland— some in CRP?—to crop production –Investment in yield enhancing technology (300 bu./ac on best land?) –Conversion of land to cellulosic feedstocks, some of which will not be from current cropland

9. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Development and adoption of drought and saline resistant crops –Globalization of agribusiness: Near universal access to the new technologies world-wide Narrowing of technology and yield differentials between US and the rest of the world

10. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Long-run land potentially availability for major crops Savannah land in Brazil (250 mil. ac. -- USDA says 350) Savannah land in Venezuela, Guyana, and Peru (200 mil. ac.) Land in former Soviet Union (100 mil. ac.) Arid land in China’s west (100 mil. ac. GMO wheat) Savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa (300 mil. ac. -- 10 percent of 3.1 bil. ac. of Savannah land) –Easy to underestimate supply growth

11. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –The 2007 USDA baseline shows a string of years in which corn carry-out stocks are projected to be below 6 percent of utilization Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

12. APCA Uncharted Territory Year ending commercial stocks-to-use ratio for US corn 1960-2005 (actual), 2006-2016 (2007 USDA Baseline) 1974 (7.4%)1983 (5.4%)1995 (4.6%)2009 (4.5%)

13. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –The 2007 USDA baseline shows a string of years in which corn carry-out stocks are projected to be below 6 percent of utilization Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

14. APCA Short-Term Impact of $6 Corn Demanders –Outrage & economic pain by Livestock and ethanol producers Food processors and consumer groups –“Dependable supplier” issue returns Can the US really guarantee that export embargoes will never again be imposed? Suppliers – Switch more acres to corn US (road-ditch to road-ditch?) Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere

15. APCA Greatest Long-Term Risk Acreage and yields greatly increase worldwide—just a question of how fast –With $6 per bushel corn Acreage shifts in the short-run Longer-run investments that increase acreage and yields –With $3 to $4 corn or somewhat lower Increases in acreage & yields but at slower rate Lower prices return –Recreate problems for farmers worldwide and for the US treasury

16. APCA On Knife’s Edge Short-term object lesson? –Need strategic reserves Like a properly managed Farmer-Owned-Reserve Reduce economic dislocation Long-term reality? –“New Era?” (fourth “New Era” in my lifetime) –Supply growth has always caught and then surpassed demand growth (and it does not take long ) This time, surge in productive capacity will be global

17. APCA Can’t the Market Take-ith Away The Production It Brought Forth? Lower prices should automatically correct itself –Consumers buy more –Producers produce less –Prices recover—problem solved! But in agriculture lower prices do not solve the problem –Little self-correction on the demand side People do consume significantly more food –Little self-correction on the supply side Farmers do not produce significantly less output

18. APCA Characteristics of Ag Sector Agriculture is different from other economic sectors. On the demand side: –With low food prices— People don’t eat more meals a day They may change mix of foods Aggregate intake remains relatively stable

19. APCA Characteristics of Ag Sector Agriculture is different from other economic sectors. On the supply side: –With low crop prices— Farmers continue to plant all their acres Farmers don’t and “can’t afford to” reduce their application of fertilizer and other major yield-determining inputs Who farms land may change Essential resource—land—remains in production in short- to medium-run

20. APCA Why Chronic Problems In Ag? Technology typically expands output faster than population and exports expand demand –Much of this technology has been paid for by US taxpayers The growth in supply now is being additionally fueled by –increased acreages in Brazil, etc. –technological advance worldwide

21. APCA Why Chronic Problems In Ag? Lower prices should automatically correct itself –Consumers buy more –Producers produce less –Prices recover—problem solved! But in agriculture lower prices do not solve the problem –Little self-correction on the demand side People do not consume significantly more food –Little self-correction on the supply side Farmers do not produce significantly less output

22. APCA Exports, Exports, Exports For the last quarter century, exports have been heralded—and continue to be by some—as crop agriculture’s salvation –Exports is the production safety valve that can rebalance agricultural markets –Exports will grow at accelerating rates As Dr. Phil would say, “So, how has that been workin’ for ya?”

23. APCA China Net Corn Trade China Net Corn Trade What We Expected During Debate of 1996 FB: 1996 FAPRI Projections of Net Corn Trade Corn Exports Corn Imports Mil. Bu. 1996 FAPRI Projections

24. APCA China Net Corn Trade China Net Corn Trade What We Got: 1996 FAPRI Projections of Net Corn Trade PS&D Actual Net Corn Trade with 2004 Projection Corn Exports Corn Imports Mil. Bu.

25. APCA China Net Corn Trade China Net Corn Trade Comparison between 1996 and 1999 FAPRI projections, 2007 USDA projections and USDA PS&D actual 1996 FAPRI Projections of Net Corn Trade Actual Net Corn Trade 1999 FAPRI Projections of Net Corn Trade Corn Exports Corn Imports Mil. Bu. Overtime, the expectation remains—just further into the future. 2007 USDA Projections of Net Corn Trade

26. APCA What About Exports? Billion Dollars Bulk Exports Total Agricultural Exports

27. APCA What About Exports Index of US Population, US Demand for 8 Crops and US Exports* of 8 Crops 1979=1.0 US Population US Exports US Domestic Demand *Adjusted for grain exported in meat

28. APCA What About Exports? Why have exports not fulfilled our hopes? –Export demand is braked by issues of food security/food sovereignty –International crop production is impacted by: Increased acreage: Stage of development Yield advances: World-wide distribution of technology US role as the leading nation in the world –Politically, economically, technologically, and militarily –And in prices too: Others price off US prices

29. APCA Implications for the WTO Market access may not be sufficient –May benefit beef and Anjou pears –What about crops covered by the Farm Bill?

30. APCA What About Exports? Developing competitors: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam 15 Crops: Wheat, Corn, Rice, Sorghum, Oats, Rye, Barley, Millet, Soybeans, Peanuts, Cottonseed, Rapeseed, Sunflower, Copra, and Palm Kernel Thousand Metric Tons US Exports Developing Competitors’ Exports

31. APCA Implications for WTO WTO negotiations drastically limit the ability to set domestic farm policy in this and other countries –Seems as if it subscribes to the “What is good for General Motors (multinationals)…” syndrome –To me: The whole WTO process shows a complete lack of understanding of the unique characteristics of food and agriculture Food security and other social objectives often trump economic considerations in the case of food and agriculture Multinationals may benefit but maybe not major- crop farmers

32. APCA “We” Seem Willing to Believe that: Staple crops are not sufficiently important to have emergency reserves (oil is sufficiently important) Less than full use of farm productive capacity is inefficient (SOP to not to use full capacity in other sectors—currently at 77% of capacity) Farmers can extract billions of dollars for commodity programs—so they do Hence, commodity programs are a waste –do away with them or –pay out the money on some other basis

33. APCA What for, Farm Programs? To address self-correction problems Not to enrich agribusinesses Not to provide cheap feed to livestock integrators Not to dump commodities on international markets Not to crash commodity prices in developing countries Not to be a mark for entrepreneurs to pull government money through loopholes

34. APCA Complete This Phrase A commodity policy should… –Be realistic about the way aggregate agricultural markets work –Take into account consumer behavior –Take into account producer behavior –Recognize limited ability of exports to rebalance aggregate agricultural markets –Recognize demand growth seldom outstrips supply growth for long

35. APCA Decoupled/Direct Payments Examine these using the test I have suggested: –Direct payments— Do not affect consumer behavior Do not result in increased exports Do not result in fewer planted acres when prices are low Are paid out even when farm prices and income are high Same is paid when prices are in the tank

36. APCA Policy Directions Do the Exports/Trade Liberalization Will Save Us Course – Or All We Really Need is Market Access Switch to Green Payments based on Conservation/Environmental/ Rural Development Considerations Revenue Insurance/Risk Management Accounts (RMA)/Farm Savings Accounts Policy to Address Crop Agriculture’s Long-Standing Problem—“A Policy for all Seasons” Continue with current program with slight modifications

37. APCAStatus House –Rebalance loan rates and target prices; try a revenue insurance program; stricter payment limits Senate –Lugar and others: Extend the 2002 Farm Bill; perhaps a form of Risk Management Accounts –Harkin: Favors CSP; stricter payment limits; perhaps a form of revenue insurance Others –Durbin-Brown: State revenue insurance in concert with Risk Management Agency (current prices) –FB/NCGA/USDA: National/state revenue insurance (moving average prices) –FU & Others: Revenue insurance (tied to variable costs); stock reserve

38. APCA In Times of Exploding Demand –Any farm program will work –NO program at all will work But times of exploding demand always come to an end And crop agriculture is no better at adjusting to low prices now than decades ago

39. APCA Thank You

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