1. ACT Canada TDM Summit Dr. Quentin Chiotti Climate Change Programme Director and Senior Scientist qchiotti@pollutionprobe.org www.pollutionprobe.org From Impacts to Adaptation to TDM: Highlights from Two National Assessments

2. ACT Canada TDM Summit

3. MISSION STATEMENT Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit organization that: Defines environmental problems through research Promotes understanding through education Presses for practical solutions through advocacy Pollution Probe is dedicated to achieving positive and tangible environmental change. 16 th year for the Clean Air Commute

4. ACT Canada TDM Summit Presentation Outline Responding to climate change –The case for adaptation The impacts of climate change in Canada –From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 –Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity Climate change and air quality: Lessons from Ontario

5. ACT Canada TDM Summit Regions Unmanaged and Managed Ecosystems Sectors Vulnerable Groups Responding to Climate Change Climate Change Temperature Precipitation Extreme Weather Events Sea Level Rise Mitigation (Emission Reduction) Adaptation Impacts and Effects Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

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7. Linkages Between Climate Change and Air Pollution Chemical/atmospheric interactions –Some air pollutants are GHGs –Aerosols known to off-set global warming Actions that directly reduce energy use will lower emissions of GHGs and CACs –co-benefits Some actions to reduce GHGs will lead to an increase in CACs and vice versa –Diesel and pollution controls Some actions can reduce emissions and enhance adaptive capacity Synergistic health effects from heat stress and air pollution

8. ACT Canada TDM Summit “Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable” (WGII SPM) Even in regions with high incomes, some people, areas and activities can be particularly at risk from climate change (Synthesis Report) Global context – 4 th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (WGI SPM)

9. ACT Canada TDM Summit What is adaptation to climate change? Adaptation involves making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate- to moderate harm (reduce negative impacts) or take advantage of new opportunities.

10. ACT Canada TDM Summit Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including variability and extremes.

11. ACT Canada TDM Summit Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

12. Impacts and Adaptation: Two National Assessment Reports http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php ccadaptation@hc-sc.gc.ca E-Mail: info@hc-sc.gc.ca

13. Linking climate change to health – Canadian efforts Table of Contents Introduction: Health in a Changing Climate Assessment Methods Impacts of Climate Change on Water, Food, Vector and Rodent-borne Diseases in Canada Air Quality, Climate and Health Canadian Vulnerabilities to Natural Hazards and Extreme Weather Health Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec Health Impacts of Climate Change in Canada’s North Vulnerabilities, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in Canada Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity

14. ACT Canada TDM Summit The report reflects the advances made in understanding climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada. It highlights key issues facing each region of the country (Northern Canada, Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies and BC) in a policy-relevant manner. It provides a concise, credible up-to-date source of information that will inform adaptation decision-making. There are three main products: Synthesis Highlights Full Scientific Report

15. ACT Canada TDM Summit Key Findings The results from the assessment provide sound scientific evidence that Canada’s climate is changing and that the impacts from of a changing climate are already evident in every region of the country. It is anticipated that climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, while presenting new risks and opportunities, especially for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. While Canada has a relatively high capacity to adapt, this capacity is unevenly distributed between and within regions and populations.

16. ACT Canada TDM Summit The impacts of changing climate are already evident in every region of Canada Reduced glacier cover Permafrost degradation Increased coastal erosion Earlier onset of spring Reduced snow cover Changing animal distributions Increased plant productivity Reduced ice cover Lower lake and river levels Increased coastal erosion

17. ACT Canada TDM Summit Lead authors: Quentin Chiotti (Pollution Probe) Beth Lavender (Natural Resources Canada) Contributing authors: Ken Abraham (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) John Casselman (Queen’s University) Steve Colombo (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Philippe Crabbé (University of Ottawa) Bill Crins (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Rob Davis (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Al Douglas (MIRARCO) Paul A. Gray (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Lawrence Ignace (Environment Canada) Chris Lemieux (University of Waterloo) Rob McAlpine (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Martyn Obbard (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Charles O'Hara (Ontario Ministry of Transportation) Jacqueline Richard (MIRARCO) Carrie Sadowski (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Daniel Scott (University of Waterloo) Mark Taylor (AMEC Earth and Environmental) Ellen Wall (University of Guelph)

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19. Climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, and present new risks and opportunities, with significant implications for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. Exacerbate current climate risks Reduced water quality & quantity Increasing demand for water Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events Increased heat waves Increased smog episodes Increased risk of diseases and pests Increased risk of forest fires New risks and opportunities New diseases and pests New challenges to management of protected areas New opportunities for more profitable crops and tree species

20. ACT Canada TDM Summit Annual Change: Mean Temperature and Precipitation

21. ACT Canada TDM Summit Key Findings Projections also indicate that intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent. Impacts include disruptions to critical infrastructure; water shortages; increased health risks; remote and resource-based communities; unmanaged and managed ecosystems Ontario has a strong capacity to adapt to climate change, but it is not uniform across sub-regions and sectors.

22. ACT Canada TDM Summit Health Effects Estimates OMA (2005) study –estimated 5,829 premature deaths annually – rising to 10,061 by 2026 –16,807 hospital admissions –59,696 emergency room visits –29,292,100 minor illness days Health Canada & Environment Canada (2005) study –2,900 premature deaths in 4 Ontario cities Toronto Public Health (2004) study –1,700 premature deaths and 6,000 hospital admissions annually

23. ACT Canada TDM Summit Number of hot days above 30  C Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent Emission increase by 20% by 2050 and 32% by 2080. The annual total number of poor O 3 days would increase 4-11 and 10-20 respectively. Air pollution mortality will increase by 20-25% and 30-40% by 2050 and 2080 Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple Background ambient levels of O 3 could increase by 40 ppm

24. ACT Canada TDM Summit Synthesis and Highlights available on-line: http://adaptation2007.nrcan.gc.ca –Download pdfs –Read author bios –Order copies of the report Full report released on March 7 th 2008 Questions? Contact NRCan at: adaptation@nrcan.gc.ca MORE INFORMATION