1. Quote of the day Class 22 Artifacts & Analogies © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

2. Competitive Convergence Superior strategic positions are likely to be cognitively distant. Position A Position B Uncontested Positions Close Cognitive Proximity © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

3. Visualizing Cognitively Distant Outcomes Artifacts From The Future Strategic Analogies © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

4. “Artifacts From The Future”  Create Clarity, reduces ambiguity about future scenarios (“forces you to put a stake in the ground”)  Require an integration of DEGEST forces (i.e. interrelationships)  Communicate in a visual and immersive manner (“memories) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5. Artifacts From The Future Pharma fruit The idea: We already fortify foods with vitamins and minerals. Why not add smart drugs and anxiety medication? The trend: Pharmaceuticals will be taken on an as-needed basis. Users wary of pills might be less afraid of apples. Technology available? Almost. Already there are functional foods such as Dannon's Activia yogurt, with trademarked bacteria said to promote digestive health. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

6. Artifacts From The Future Glacier water The idea: A new source for bottled H2O. The trend: The world is getting thirsty for fresh drinking water as rivers run dry. At the same time, global warming is melting the ice caps. Why not turn that bug into a feature? Technology available? Yes. Alaska Glacier Refreshments is already marketing water that was stored in the Eklutna Glacier for 23,000 years - but it doesn't come direct. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

7. Artifacts From The Future Reputation accounts The idea: A monthly statement keeps track of positive online contributions: writing for wikis, posting podcasts, monitoring community webcams. The trend: Web 2.0 sites and services live or die on user content, but they can't afford financial incentives. Technolgy available? Yes, such as Slashdot.org's "karma points." But there's no single Web-wide system. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

8. Artifacts From The Future Social Network Movie Tickets The idea: The ticket machine knows your buddy list, tells you how close by buddies are, and offers discounts if they see the movie too. The trend: More of us will have "always on" connections and GPS devices that always know where we are. Technology available? In theory. Wi-Fi needs to be more widespread, however, and social networks need to integrate GPS. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

9. Artifacts From The Future RFID locators and blockers The idea: A lamp that can be made to spotlight anything with an RFID tag, and a disruptor tag that shuts down signals from RFID chips within 3 feet. The trend: Consumers are already wary of the new RFID-tagged driver's licenses and credit cards - but they'll be keener on using the technology to find stuff at home. Technology available? Yes. A company called RSA Security has invented an RFID blocker, though it isn't yet being marketed. But an online business, DifrWear, has started selling an RFID-blocking wallet. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

13. Associative Thinking Useful for Ambiguous Questions When evidence is imperfect © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

14. http://www.betterplace.com/How-it- Works/#battery-switch-stations © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

15. Charlie Merrill © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

16. Recognize the Analogy Outside-In Inside-Out Probe the Similarities © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

17. Reference Target Problem Candidate Solution Serve “Mr. Average Investor” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

18. Reference Target Problem Candidate Solution Wide Selection No Haggle Professional Staff © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

19. Recognize the Analogy Probe the Similarities © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

20. Gas & Electricity Market Characteristics Fragmented Demand Rapid change & Deregulation Tech Progress Complex/Capital Intensive Distribution Opaque Pricing LT Supply / ST Demand Mismatches Overlooked Deep differences: Last mile delivery No Standard Contracts Broadband? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

21. Team Exercise Take 30 minutes to creatively develop conceptual ideas for Artifacts From The Future and/or Strategic Analogies We will briefly report out during final 10 minutes of class © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

22. 22 Next Class - Visioning Read: “Building Your Company’s Vision” First Draft of Foresight Reports Due in class Bring one hard copy per team member 22 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.