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Client Update September 2013 Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA.

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Presentation on theme: "Client Update September 2013 Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA."— Presentation transcript:

1 Client Update September 2013 Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA

2 2 Much Easier to Say Rabobank

3 3 What's Happening at Home Source: Bloomberg Things are mixed Retail sales to June 2013 CPI and Wage Growth RBA dropped rates but now sitting on the side lines to see what happens next

4 4 What's Happening at Home Source: ABS, Rabobank

5 5 What's Happening at Home Source: ABS, Stats NZ, Rabobank

6 6 What's Happening at Home Source: ABS, Rabobank

7 7 Interest Rates – Long Term Source: Bloomberg RBA cash rate at 2.50% Previous lows: 3.00% in 08/09 post GFC, equal to 1961 low _____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day

8 8 Interest Rates – Short Term Source: Bloomberg _____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day Bank rates about 0.50% higher then GFC low

9 9 Influences from US Talk of “Tapering” in the US has lead to rise in long term rates This has carried over to AUD yield curve Same in Europe

10 10 Interest Rates: USD, EUR & AUD Swaps Source: Bloomberg *=5 Aug 2013 =6 Sep 2013

11 11 AUD Still Weakening ? Source: Bloomberg

12 12 Changing Fundamentals Source Bloomberg

13 13 Changing Fundamentals Source Bloomberg

14 14 US Drought – Back in Feb 2013

15 15 US Drought – This Week

16 16 But its not all about the US.....

17 17 But its not all about the US.....

18 18 Source USDA, Rabobank

19 19 Source USDA, Rabobank

20 20 Source: AgResource Co US Corn Crop Conditions

21 21 US Soybean Crop Conditions

22 22 US Soybean Way over Corn

23 23 US Dec13 Wheat V Dec13 Corn

24 24 Long Term US Wheat V Corn

25 25 2013 Wheat Swap and Cash Price Source: Grainmarket

26 26 2014 Wheat Swap and Cash Price Source: Grainmarket

27 27 2013 Canola Swap and Cash Source: Grainmarket

28 28 2014 Canola Swap Source: Grainmarket

29 29 Rabobank International Andrew Tasker GFM Representative - WA Global Financial Markets t. 08 9318 8722 m. 0408 848 123 e. Andrew.tasker@rabobank.comAndrew.tasker@rabobank.com DISCLAIMER This document is issued by Rabobank Australia Limited incorporated in Australia (“Rabobank”). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or a commitment by Rabobank or any of its affiliates to enter into a transaction. This information is not professional advice and has not been prepared to be used as the basis for, and should not be used as the basis for, any financial or strategic decisions. This information is general in nature only and does not take into account an individual’s personal circumstances. All opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice. Neither Rabobank, nor other legal entities in the group to which it belongs, accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, except with the prior written consent of Rabobank. All copyrights, including those within the meaning of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), are reserved. Australian law shall apply. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions. © Rabobank Australia Limited, Level 16 Darling Park Tower 3, 201 Sussex Street Sydney Australia, +61 2 8115 4000 “The financial link in the global food chain”™


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