Presentation on theme: "Competitive Balance What it is What it means. Leagues Want It Stimulates interest Attendance TV Ratings Baseball owners particularly complain Are Yankees."— Presentation transcript:
Leagues Want It Stimulates interest Attendance TV Ratings Baseball owners particularly complain Are Yankees bad for baseball? Should New York win more often? What is competitive balance? Even competition in each game? Turnover among champions?
The Hirfindahl-Hirschman Index HHI quantifies turnover in champions Asks: How concentrated is winning? How much do a few teams dominate? Also used to measure monopoly power Let f i =#championships by team I T=#teams; N=#Years
Applying HHI to Baseball in 1950s 1950s American League Champions Yankees (8); Indians; White Sox HHI=6.6 1950s National League Champions Dodgers (5); Giants (2); Braves (2); Phillies HHI=3.4
Applying HHI to Baseball in 1990s 1990s AL Champions Yankees (3); Indians (2); Blue Jays (2); Twins; Athletics HHI=2.1 1990s NL Champions Braves (5); Reds; Phillies; Marlins; Padres HHI=3.2 Conclusion of HHI measure: League Championships less concentrated in 1990s
Nostalgia Ain t What it Used To Be From 1949 through 1966 Yankees, Dodgers, or Giants played in every World Series 2 of them played each other in 8 of 18 Yankees in 14 of 18 Yankees in over 25% of all World Series Nothing new under the sun
Is Baseball Unique? In 1960s only 2 NBA champions Celtics Champions 1960-66, 1968-69 Since 1990 only 4 NBA champions Bulls: 1990-1993 Rockets: 1994-1995 Bulls: 1996-1998 Spurs: 1999 Lakers 2000-2002 Spurs 2003 Similar results for hockey
How about Evenness of Competition? Use standard deviation of winning % Problem Cannot compare across league Cannot compare across seasons Why not? Key innovation: compare to ideal Teams evenly matched Games decided by flip of coin Why don t all teams win half their games?
Ratio of actual to ideal T= # teams N = # Games WP i = Winning Percentage of team i
Interpreting the Ratio Why take ratio? More games => larger standard deviation Can now compare across leagues/years As a rule: R > 1 R=1: Absolutely balanced Outcomes randomly determined As R rises Imbalance worsens
Is Baseball Worst? No In general MLB in the middle NFL by far the most balanced NBA by far the least balanced Extra Credit Pick 2 years from MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL One from 1960 – 1975; one from 1980-2000 Compute R – show work Compare competitive balance in 2 years
How to Promote Competitive Balance? Owners promote restriction on players Reverse order draft Restrictions on free agency Salary caps Luxury tax on salaries All promote monopsony power Did it ever work? Several punish success An alternative Tax based on exogenous advantage: city size