1. Border Security Risk Model Murray E. Jennex, Ph.D., P.E., CISSP, CSSLP

2. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project This project is focusing on border risk –Risk from bringing in new technologies –Risk from border security threats –Risk from changes in the organizations managing border security

3. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Project Goals are: –Quantify Threats, Risks, and Security Levels –Simulation and Modeling of Countermeasures –Inventory of Current Technologies Used in Border Security & Risk Management –Prioritize Needed Technologies & Systems –Identify, Test, & Evaluate Easily Deployed, Commercially Available Technologies –Identify Technology Gaps that Require Further Development –Creation of a Border Security Risk Monitor

4. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Project Outputs are: –Risk Assessment and Mitigation Decision Framework –BSI Readiness and Maturity Model –Prototype Border Security Risk Monitor –Adaptive, Risk-Informed Resource Allocation Each output leads to the next

5. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Challenges –Greatest challenge is in getting data for constructing risk models for different areas of the border: North vs south Ports vs airports External vs internal –Will leverage efforts from other projects, in particular the case studies that are being done

6. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Challenges –Risk model challenges include variable and rule identification –Risk monitor prototype challenges include: Choosing a technology platform Complexity of risk models

7. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Benefits include: –Provides framework for assessing border risks (more than immigration and terrorism) Provide a system for determining risk level Provide a system for determining contingency actions –Provide methodology to support evaluation and deployment of new technologies within an integrated framework of layered protection Assess organizational needs for supporting new technologies Identify dependencies between technologies

8. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Year One Deliverables: –Survey of Risk Literature –DHS Data Needs/Assessment –Decision Framework –Survey of Readiness Models

9. Risk Assessment, Mitigation, & Alignment Project Investigators: –University of Arizona Larry Head Ferenc Szidarovszky Jian Liu –San Diego State University Murray Jennex Eric Frost Robert Judge –Arizona State University Rick Van Schoik –RAND Corporation Henry Willis Joel Predd