1. Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa
AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002
Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa
NORTH AFRICA TEAM
Introduction…
Where ?
When ?
How ?

2. National case studies in North Africa
Where ?
75% (arid, semi arid)
87% (arid, semi arid)
Tunisia
Marocco
Egypt
95% (arid)
SETTAT Province
Low and variable production
Dry land agriculture
Low precipitation
High climate variability
Drought damage
High pop increase
CENTER REGION
Low and variable production
High pop increase
Dry land agriculture
Low precipitation
High evaporation water deficit
High RR var. (30mm, 215mm)
Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.
NILE DELTA
High irrigated production
Extreme urban water and land use conflicts
Small holders
Urban and land use water conflicts
High pop increase

3. أهمية الزراعات المطريّة في تونس (1000 هك) 1993
Rainfed agriculture
% rainfed from total
زراعة مطرية/ المجموع
زراعة مطرية
زراعة سقوية
%97
1646 34
زراعة الحبوب
%93
1835
130
الأشجار المثمرة
%28 42
108
الخضر
%92
285 23
مراعي
Cereals
FruitTrees
Over 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.

4. تطوّر إنتاج الطماطم الفصليّة
Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in Tunisia
Effect of irrigation
Olive trees production
تطوّر إنتاج الطماطم الفصليّة

5. WHEN ? 3 cases studies 0-24 month 4-20 month 6-12 month 18-30 month
Morocco
Settat Province
Tunisia
Center Region
Egypt
Nil Delta
Integration
Assessment, I & V of CC in North Africa
Climate / Scenarios / vulnerability
Stakeholder engagement
Impact
Evaluation and adaptation
3 cases studies
Links with others AIACC projects results
0-24 month
4-20 month
18-30 month
30 month
6-12 month
WHEN ?

6. Crop – Climate –Impacts
How ?
Driving forces
(Socio-economics)
Current Food Security
Map, GIS, Indicators RF
Crop – Climate –Impacts
DSSAT
Id. Adaptation Options
ST analysis
Evaluate Options
DSSAT, MCA
Future Food Security
Map, GIS, CC, Adapt
S.H.
s. Ag
Other ag.
(water supp.)
Stakeholders
(Workshop?)
CC Scenarios
(downscaling)

7. Final report (results)
S.H. Example for Tunisia
STs
Ag.
Small Farmers (80%)
Extension service
Regional Policy makers (CRDA)
Project
Decisions
Technical Policy makers
DGPA, UTAP, DGRE
Other ag.
(water supp.)
Central Policy maker
(Ministry of agriculture)
National commissions
Final report (results)
Stakeholders
(Workshop?)
Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Mauritania + Other AIACC projects.

8. Adaptation policies I Water resources management
- Changing system of water delivery and control
- Provide farmers with guidance on crop water management
- Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use
- Water mobilization
- Use of new water resources (Waste water,
geothermal water, saline water, drainage water…)
- Increasing water use efficiency
- Etc………………

9. Adaptation policies II
Agriculture management
- Crop liberalization (Egypt)
- Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
- Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
- Soil mulch
- Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
- Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and Morocco)
- Use of new techniques
etc…………………

10. Adaptation policies III
Trading
- Trading intra country
Trading inter regions
- International trade
Trade Balance
Trade Imbalance

11. North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes
Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerability:
Matrix on current and future risk of adverse effects of climate
Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity

12. MODELS: Defining key questions
What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT)
Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – IRRIGATION MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT)
Will climate significantly affect national agriculture? – MODEL INTEGRATION; GIS INTEGRATION (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS)
We have to be very careful with using model in our region because of the high variability (climate, soil, farmers behaviors…)