1. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 1 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions Michael Lepech (PI) Martin Fischer (co-PI) Forest Flager John Basbagill

2. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 2 Case Study: Multi-family Residential Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions 2 CIFE TAC 2013

3. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 3 Conceptual Design Problem SCOPE Housing buildings: substructure ● shell ● interiors ● services OBJECTIVES (1)Minimize life-cycle cost (2)Minimize carbon footprint VARIABLES (1) Number of buildings: 3 - 4 (2) Number of stories: 5 - 8 (3) Building footprint: H-shape (4) Building orientation: 0-360° CONSTRAINTS (1)Gross Floor Area (GFA): 15,000m 2 (2)Building width (a, b and f): >15m (3)Distance to site perimeter: >20m (4)Distance between building: >20m ab c d e f

4. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 4 CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICE 3 design alternatives evaluated 162 man hours required Design Exploration Today: Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions Is this sufficient? DESIGN SPACE 1.46 E 11 possible design alternatives

5. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 5 Introduction to MDO CONSTRUCTION COST DProfiler GEOMETRY MODEL DProfiler OPERATIONAL COST eQUEST, CostLab EMBODIED IMPACT SimaPro OPERATIONAL IMPACT eQUEST, SimaPro OPTIMIZER Genetic Algorithm “Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) involves the formalization of design iteration and coordination to leverage computer processing power to systematically search the design space.” - MDO Technical Committee, AIAA (1991)

6. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 6 MDO Case Study Results 275 280 290 295285 Carbon Footprint (met kilotons CO 2 e) Life-Cycle Cost (USD, Millions) 165 195 210 225 180 + KEY Baseline Selected Designs 3 Buildings, 5 Stories 3 Buildings, 6 Stories 3 Buildings, 7 Stories 3 Buildings, 8 Stories 4 Buildings, 5 Stories 4 Buildings, 6 Stories 4 Buildings, 7 Stories 4 Buildings, 8 Stories Infeasible Solution X +

7. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 7 MDO Case Study Results 275 280 290 295285 Carbon Footprint (met kilotons CO 2 e) Life-Cycle Cost (USD, Millions) 165 195 210 225 180 + KEY Baseline Selected Designs 3 Buildings, 5 Stories 3 Buildings, 6 Stories 3 Buildings, 7 Stories 3 Buildings, 8 Stories 4 Buildings, 5 Stories 4 Buildings, 6 Stories 4 Buildings, 7 Stories 4 Buildings, 8 Stories Infeasible Solution X 1 3 2 +

8. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 8 CIFE MDO Research KBZ NATIONAL STADIUM Scope:Steel roof structure Savings:USD $4M (19%) Support: 2009 CIFE Seed, Autodesk PAST EDUCATIONAL BUILDING Scope:Steel superstructure Savings:USD $570K (21%) Support: Skanska GOVERNMENT OFFICE BUILDING Scope:Structural system Savings:USD $1.7M (7%) Support: 2012 CIFE Seed, Beck MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL Scope:Structural system Savings:USD $4M (19%) Support: 2009 CIFE Seed, Autodesk CURRENT MDO class under development Ongoing MDO research

9. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 9 Conventional vs. MDO Design Process CONVENTIONAL MDO - building massing - orientation - system type - system topology - component sizing - building massing - orientation - system type - system topology - component sizing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT new information DETAIL new information

10. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 10 Research Question Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions 10 Copyright  2013 10 CIFE TAC 2013 How can automated design exploration be leveraged to support sequential design decisions?

11. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 11 Research Goals Q1: What decisions are most important? Develop a decision support methodology to provide stakeholders with clear and quantitative information about: Influence (%) Design Decision 0 10 Glazing Thickness Cladding Material WWRWall R-value Height 5 A: Analyze relative influence that different decisions have on performance criteria of interest.

12. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 12 Research Goals Q2: What is the impact of the decision on product performance? A: Analyze how a given decision affects the distribution of possible solutions. No decisions made 1. Six floors 2. Orientation = 323° 1. Six floors 2. Orientation = 323° 3. Steel cladding Impact (kg CO 2 e) Probability of Occurrence (%) 2 6 10 14 18 150k 250k350k450k KEY

13. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 13 Research Goals Q3: What are the synergies between design decisions? A: Analyze the relationship between coupled decisions. 84 30 50 360 2.34 E 8 2.97 E 5 53 10 00 0 1.67 E 8 2.75 E 5 Number of Buildings Number of Floors Length a (m) Carbon Footprint (kg CO 2 e) Life Cycle Cost ($) Building Orientation (deg) Length b (m) Length d (m) Length c (m) Length e (m) Preference Shading: Worst Best

14. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 14 Research Methods 1)Formalize design problem and process 2)Develop design space analysis methods - Design of Experiments (DoE) - Optimization 3)Develop data visualization methods 4)Implement decision support methodology - Massively parallel (cloud) computing environment

15. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 15 Research Validation 1)Parallel design charrettes / case studies - Subjects: students and practitioners - Groups: conventional (control) / decision support (intervention) 2)Sample metrics - solution quality / feasibility - design cycle duration - total design cycles - use of data visualization methods

16. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 16 Schedule TaskTimeline 1: DEVELOP DESIGN SPACE ANALYSIS METHODS Summer 2013 2: DEVELOP DATA VISUALIZATION METHODSFall 2013 3: IMPLEMENT DECISION SUPPORT METHODFall 2013 4: DESIGN CHARETTESWinter 2014 5. JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS Spring 2014

17. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 17 Research Impact Schedule Performance Cost Conformance / Sustainability dramatically reduced design cycle time many alternatives evaluated quickly better performing designs identified IMPROVED TIME TO MARKET COST CONFORMING, SUSTAINABLE DESIGNS early quantitative assessment of quality risks CIFE 2015 Goals

18. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 18 Opportunities for Industry Participation Software Providers Owners / Designers / Contractors access to software / training partner on case studies IDENTIFY NEW TECHNOLOGY / METHODS FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT USE OF METHODS / TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT BUSINESS OBJECTIVES partner to incorporate your software into MDO environment participate in design charrettes Learn from new methods developed and user testing

19. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 Questions? 19

20. Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 20 Budget Item DescriptionCost Post ‐ Doctorate Researcher Flager, Forest$26,179 Graduate Student Research Assistant TBD$45,626 TOTAL AMOUNT REQUESTED$71,805