1. Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions

2. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution Objective of WP3: investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations. 2 components: 1.historical reconstructions and projections of climate scenarios 2.statistical spatial distribution models for plankton, benthos and fish populations

3. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions projecting spatial distributions niche-based models + predicted spatial distribution environment biological response climate forecast/scenario

4. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions A general view of the modelling method adapted from Anderson, 2010

5. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Evaluating uncertainties Scale(s) adaptation future world

6. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions uncertainties in conceptual models spatial distribution geographical attachment environmental conditions density dependent habitat selection spatial dependency demographic structure Persistence species interactions

7. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution Pops. spatial distribution Environmental conditions (climate, habitat, pollution, etc.) Pops. History (demography, size, etc.) Population distribution models (PDMs) Model evaluation & selection PDMs PASTPOSSIBLE FUTURES Environment Pop state Environment Pop state Pops. spatial distribution Climate Fishing Climate Fishing PDMs ensemble modelling

8. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Past and Future climate & other stressors Past ocean climate will come from historical Atlas of hydrographic conditions (FishExchange) for the period 1985+ Future climate will be derived from downscaled ocean climate simulations for the period 2051-2065 Other stressors will not be considered explicitely, but through their expected effects on populations (abundance, demographic structure,...)

9. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Activities Year 1: Data & information assembly (past situations). Development of conceptual models. Experiment with existing tool-kits. Year 2: Numerical formulation and coding for few species. Model evaluations and development of ensemble models. Climate model runs for 2051-2065. Year 3: Extension of model development to all species. Input of future climate and biological scenarios. Ensemble forecasts.

10. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Feasibility and limitations Feasibility: Statistical models for spatial distribution do exists (mostly terrestrial) and ready-made tools are currently available (ex: BIOMOD) The statistical modelling activity will be carried out by a dedicated post- doc Limitations: Availability of adequate data (climate & biological) Availability of adequate information (e.g. species interactions) to construct the models Time needed for developing and coding models outside existing tools Computing time for complex ensemble modelling

11. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Connections to other WPs WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interaction WP4: Resilience & Early warning Past climate & climate models data and concepts modelled distributions WP3: Population distribution

12. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Thank you