1. Adult Basic Education Trends and Changing Demographics Council for Basic Skills April, 2014 Prepared by David Prince and Tina Bloomer Policy Research

2. The Trends in Adult Basic Education Enrollment (ABE) and Achievement The Changing Demographics and Implications for Increasing Educational Attainment and Meeting Employer Demand Questions/Discussion Today's Agenda

3. System Annual FTE Enrollments by Course Intent Colleges enrolled 146,542 State FTES- 5% above their funded level. Academic, vocational and pre-college FTES continue to decrease from their respective recession year peaks. Adult basic education FTES has continued a downslide from a peak in 2008-09.

4. System Fall FTE Enrollments by Course Intent Colleges enrolled 128,757 state funded FTES It’s still projected that the colleges will end the year above the state funded level, but the FTE decline will continue as the economy recovers. FTES declined across all course content areas. State FTES declined in adult basic education at 21 colleges.

5. Federally Reported Adult Basic Education Students The ABE system served 53,425 federally reported students in 2012-13. This was a decrease of 1751 students from the prior year and a decrease of 12,181 students from the peak in 2009-10. Enrollments have declined in every institution type.

6. I-BEST Enrollments

7. Student Achievement Initiative 2.0.  Points and Points Per Student  Impacts on Total College Achievement  Points from Transitions

8. Achievement points are awarded to ABE students when they demonstrate significant gains on CASAS Post Tests In 2012-13, ABE students in all institutions earned 85,834 total points. Corrections students went the “furthest/fastest” based upon points per student.

9. Student Achievement Initiative 2.0 Important Changes for ABE. YearABE StudentsBasic Skills Points Total SAI Points Earned by ABE Students Total SAI Points All Students Total SAI Points Earned by ABE Students as % of All SAI Points 2011-1248,49380,97488,288361,71524% 2012-13* 54,51373,445*118,419*515,00723% 2011-12 - Last year for original SAI point metrics 2012-13- First year for revised SAI point metrics, following yearlong system review and CCRC external evaluation * Includes Current ands Former ABE (past two years) Responding to CCRC evaluation and the system review, the SAI revisions included important changes to ABE point metrics and students. Changes the focus from only earning basic skills points to earning points and earning additional points (transitioning beyond ABE and next year retention). Includes weights that provide incentives to colleges to transition ABE students. Keeps the ABE mission important to SAI by protecting the share of total points earned by ABE

10. Current and Former ABE Students Transitioning to Pre-college and College Courses Students have at least 3 years, including the current year to be counted as a transition. The transition of ESL students is challenging to capture, as a number of them move to higher levels of ABE after completing ESL level 3. Notwithstanding this practice, it is still more difficult to transition ESL students compared to ABE/GED. Transitions are included in the Governor's dashboard for Results Washington. The target goal is 15% by 2017. *Former includes students who were ABE in the previous 2 years.

11. In 2012-13, 6,898 ABE students transitioned into pre-college and college level programs. Has I-BEST and the focus on transition influenced colleges to develop other practices? If so, what can we learn from the alternatives? 11 Current and Former ABE Students Who Earned Points Beyond Basic Skills in 2012-13 StudentsTransition Points Earned Current and Former I-BEST 2,788 12,234 Current and Former ABE- Total 6,898 32,740 I-BEST as % of total40%37% ABE programs are using I-BEST strategies (team-teaching, contextualized instruction, cohort learning, etc.) in the way they are approaching instruction. The combining of ABE and ESL with two instructors is also becoming more and more common. What can we learn from these practices to continue the increase in transitions?

12. Changing Demographics 2010-2030 Highlights Key college age populations (15-44 years) will increase 12% between 2011 and 2030. 15-19 year olds will grow by 8%, while 20-44 year olds will increase by 13%. Population growth will be smaller than the growth that occurred in the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010), with marked differences in the growth within age groups. If current college participation rates are maintained, population growth will mean a 10% increase in state and Running Start enrollments by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between 1991-2010. There are regional differences in population growth due to demographics such as educational attainment, race/ethnicity and the number of limited-English speakers. Future skill requirements needed for employment will demand substantial growth in long-term certificates and 2 year degrees. 12

13. The change in population growth will be smaller in the next 20 years. 13

14. High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010 peak until it reaches a new peak in 2027. 14

15. To meet demand for sub-baccalaureate workers (prof tech and academic students who go directly to work), CTCs will have to complete 46,000 to 55,200 students every year from 2016 to 2021. The completion target increases substantially in 2025 and again in 2030. 2016-21*2025**2030** Total Annual Completions Needed for Post Secondary 100,856 – 129,526 148,800 177,000 Mid-level Completions Needed55,532 – 66,049 78,500 90,000 Total CTC System Completions 46,105- 54,836 65,200 77,600 Growth over 2016 average of range 34%59% 15 *This is from 2013 A Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry education level (BLS) and the high is the competitive education level (ACS). **Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.

16. 16 Much slower enrollment growth, especially among new high school graduates. Will there be increasing competition for young adult students, including with universities? Most growth occurs with people of color and 35-44 year olds. What will be the impact on outreach and access strategies? Growing gap between employment demand and CTC supply (10% enrollment growth, 59% employment growth). Can’t meet economic demand with population growth. How will access be improved for place bound, working adults without college credentials, basic skills needs? Greatest growth needed in ABE and workforce training. How will this impact mission mix and funding? More older students. What focus will be needed on acceleration and competencies? What focus will be needed on retention and student completions? How will enrollment accountability or student achievement accountability be impacted? Some Implications

17. Questions/Discussion 17