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4 th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip WorréPhilip Worré Executive Director,

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Presentation on theme: "4 th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip WorréPhilip Worré Executive Director,"— Presentation transcript:

1 4 th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip WorréPhilip Worré Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropeExecutive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe 8 March 20138 March 2013

2 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Presentation Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Introduction o Security Dimension o Political & Strategic Dimension o The Future…

3 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe Introduction

4 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Two ways of looking at subject o « Alliance » o Transatlantic alliance o Two Parts Defined security threats and challenges Political/strategic threats and challenges

5 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Transatlantic alliance o Washington Treaty o Up to end of Cold War o US umbrella o Limited European capabilities o Post Cold War era o Ex-Yugoslavia o Development of autonomous European Capabilites

6 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Introduction Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o NATO and EU: Main actors o Transatlantic alliance vital for Europe’s security o NATO’s role enshrined in Lisbon Treaty o EU-NATO cooperation – Berlin Plus o Advantages of EU-NATO cooperation o Multiplication of options in crisis management response o Financial crisis: pooling & sharing/SDI

7 Introduction Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Last decade: evolution in the understanding and definition of global threats No state border and non-state actors Dimensions: political, economic, social and environmental Hybrid threats: “are those posed by adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.” (NATO ACT) Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance

8 Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe Security Dimension

9 Security DimensionSecurity Dimension Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Emerging Security Challenges Terrorism Proliferation of WMDs Cyber attacks Piracy and maritime security Energy and environmental security State failure Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance

10 Security DimensionSecurity Dimension Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o NATO’s response Emerging Security Challenges Division (ESCD) created within NATO international staff in August 2010 Brought together various existing fields of expertise into a single division Stuctural response to hybrid, inter-related and cross-cutting threats Fruit of several years of discussions, consulting, debates and analysis Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance

11 Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o European Union Approach: fragmented and less coordinated Developed sectorial action programmes Drafted resolutions and threat-specific strategies Confronted to hurdles « Soft Power » dimension Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security DimensionSecurity Dimension

12 Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe o Key EU documents Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security DimensionSecurity Dimension European Security Strategy (2003) Terrorism Proliferation of WMDs Regional Conflicts State Failure Organised Crime Report on the Implementation of the ESS (2008) Terrorism Proliferation of WMDs Organised Crime Cyber Security Energy Security Climate Change Internal Security Strategy (2010) Terrorism Serious and organised crime Cyber-crime Cross-border crime Violence itself Natural and man-made disasters

13 Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropePhilip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Security DimensionSecurity Dimension o Institutional complexity CFSP and CSDP Decision-making process Leader, enabler or follower according to issue o Role of the EU in global security Focus on immediate neighbourhood Mandate of EU as security actor

14 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Security threats – common points o Unpredictable o Changing/evolving nature o Cross-dimensional o Response defined in a strategy o Beyond: political and strategic challenge o Main challenge to the future of the Transatlantic Alliance: relevance Security DimensionSecurity Dimension

15 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Political & Strategic Dimension

16 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Relevance o How to remain relevant in a world of emerging o Global powers o Middle powers o Nuclear states o Regional security organisations o Powerful communication technology Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

17 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Backdrop o Financial Crisis o Capability gaps o Decrease in political will (crisis management) o Increasingly involved public opinion Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

18 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Relevance is a “must” o Credibility o Failed/lack of intervention – less deterrence o Not omnipotence o One’s voice should be heard o Credible solutions to conflict management o Selected examples of challenges Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

19 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Global Powers o China o Increased militarisation o Rise of tensions territorial waters o Insatiable appetite for natural resources o Economic superpower o Increased projection power o Increased participation in crisis management operations Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

20 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Global Powers o India o Increasing projection power o From regional sphere of influence to global Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

21 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Middle Powers o South Korea o Desire for more autonomy o Militarised – hard power o Wants to develop its political power o Fully assumes its new status Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

22 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Regional Security Organisations o Africa o AU o ECOWAS – broadening of mandate o Still in cooperation with transatlantic actors o SCO o ASEAN Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

23 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Nuclear Powers o Iran o Technological development o P5+1 Talks stalled o Expanding its capabilities o North Korea o Provocative o Satellite launch o Nuclear tests o Sanctions not working Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

24 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Importance of Asia in 21 st century o Recognised by the US o “Pivot to Asia” o Participation in 2012 ASEAN summit o Attempt to remain relevant o Recognised by Russia o Question for Europe? o “What does the ‘Pivot’ mean for EU-US relations?” o “What about us?” o Fear Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

25 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Question of NATO and solidarity? o Relevance of Art. V o No more large scale “Afghanistan-type” responses under Art. V o Pre-2001 and Post-2001 Art. V o Meaning? o Loss of solidarity? Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

26 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Regional action o Arab Spring o Enthusiasm o Moderate enthusiasm o Hesitation and reluctance o Shift in public opinion – perceived lack of coherent action/policy o EU’s role o Libya – efforts stalled o Mali – late action Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

27 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Challenge not only external o Within Europe and North America: changing dynamics o New technology - Public opinion o War posted on Youtube o More informed – facts, dates, data, statistics o More dis-/misinformed o No such thing as “raw” material o Everyone has an opinion o Impact of “Wikileaks” – tension, distrust o Civil society pushing for increased oversight o More informed, more critical Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

28 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Additional factor: Financial Crisis o Major impact o Defence industry o Defence budgets o Increasing oversight and supervision on private practices o Catalyst – loss of relevance o Decreased national military capabilities Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

29 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Internal systemic issues o Current crisis management tools o Designed according to institution’s strategy o Could work, but don’t o Example: EU battlegroups o Never deployed o Commitment gap o Internal institutional challenges Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

30 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Additional factor: Financial Crisis o Loss of trust, increased gap between governing bodies and public opinion o Reflected during elections – populism / extremism o Impact at the highest levels Political & Strategic DimensionPolitical & Strategic Dimension

31 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance The Future…

32 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Challenging o No miracle solution: realisation that we live in a different world o Remaining relevant o Take full advantage of opportunities The Future…The Future…

33 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Accept presence of other actors o Cooperate in spirit of trust o Identify common goals o Work together o Military Exercises / Exchanges o Crisis management cooperation o Anti-piracy Horn of Africa operations The Future…The Future…

34 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Accept presence of other actors o Cooperate in spirit of trust o Understanding of the “other” o Maintain pragmatic approach o Create constructive atmosphere o Be active and involved o Provide mediation and communication channels o P5+1 Talks / 6 Party Talks The Future…The Future…

35 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Crisis Management: recreate tools adapted to our contemporary world o Pragmatic approach o “Comprehensive” / CivMil o Easily deployable units o Including decision-making process o Clear mandate o Define what “alliance” means o Important for all to understand o Define NATO’s/EU’s mission/role The Future…The Future…

36 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance o Consolidate the acquis and reinforce transatlantic alliance through other means o US-EU FTA o Develop SDI / P&S initiatives o Crisis provides opportunities o Take public opinion / civil society into account o Take initiative in informing o Prevent someone else from doing it o Development of public diplomacy actions o Oversight/Responsibility o Communication is crucial The Future…The Future…

37 Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic AllianceChallenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Questions

38 4 th Annual Strategy and Security Conference Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Philip WorréPhilip Worré Executive Director, International Security Information Service, EuropeExecutive Director, International Security Information Service, Europedirector@isis-europe.eu

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