1. Ingrid Schoon London, Institute of Education Llakes Conference London, 5-6th July 2010 Planning for the future: Changing education expectations in three British cohorts

2. Education Expectations expression of personal identity: projecting oneself into the future (future possible self) reflect subjective assessment of the amount of education one realistically predicts to attain. can help to chart a life course, provide direction for spending time and energy during the school years are one of the strongest predictors of future educational and occupational attainments (Hanson, 1994; Marini, 1978; Schoon, 2006; Sewell et al., 1970)

3. Education Expectations in Times of Social Change General increase in expectations for further education  The ambitious generation (Schneider & Stevenson, 1999)  A new norm: Further education for all? (Rosenbaum, 2001) Possible explanations Changing social backgrounds Changing parental expectations for their children Increased gender equality Increasing investment in education (school engagement)

4. Research Questions How have educational expectations changed since 1970s? Have gender differences diminished? Has the impact of social background on school attainment and education expectations decreased in later born cohorts? Is there a new norm emerging? 4

5. Lives in Context Three British Age Cohorts born in 1958, 1970, 1990: From ‘Golden Age’ to ‘Crisis Decades’ Changing labour market Expansion of the education system Increasing participation of women in the labour market → how does changing social context influence transition behaviour? 5

6. 6 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2008 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS): n=17,415 Birth Age 7 Age 11 Age 16 Age 23Age 33 Age 42 Age 44 Age 50 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70): n=16,571 Birth Age 5 Age 10 Age 16 Age 26 Age 30 Age 34 Era of liberalisation Revival of Feminist movement End of baby boom Oil crisis New technologies Onset of recession Credit Crunch Collapse of housing market Second wave of recession Onset of recovery LSYPE: n=21,234 Age 13 14 15 16

7. 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2008 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS): n=17,5 Birth Age 7 Age 11 Age 16 Age 23 Age 33Age 42 Age 46 Age 50 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70): n=16,571 Birth Age 5 Age 10 Age16 Age 26 Age 30 Age 34 Age 38 Era of liberalisation Revival of Feminist movement End of baby boom Oil crisis New technologies Onset of recession Credit Crunch Collapse of housing market Second wave of recession Onset of recovery LSYPE: n=21,234 Age 13 14 15 16 17 18 7

8. Understanding Lives in Context: A Life Course Approach Embeddedness of human development in a changing socio-historical context Development as life long process: Accumulation of experiences Social change and its influence on timing of transitions Linked lives: transgenerational approach Individual agency Reciprocal interactions between individual and context (Bronfenbrenner & Ceci, 1997; Elder, 1998)

9. Comparative Measures Social Origin: parental social class, parental education Academic attainment in mid childhood NCDS: math and reading at age 11 BCS70: math and reading at age 10 LSYPE: math and reading at age 10 (Key stage 2) Own Education Aspirations (age 16): Expects further education beyond age 16 School Motivation (age 16) 5 item scale (School is boring, I like homework,...) Parental Aspirations (age 16) parents want child to continue education post 16 9

10. Educational aspirations of young people Born 1958 1970 1989/90 Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

11. Parental educational expectations for their child Child Born 1958 1970 1989/90 Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

12. Parental Expectations that a child will continue full time education after age 16 by gender and parental education. 12 % born: 1958 1970 1989/1990 Age 16 1974 19862005/6

13. Teenage expectations for further education by gender and parental education. 13 % born: 1958 1970 1989/1990 Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

14. Predicting Education Expectations: Logistic Regression Controlling for academic attainment at age 10 (math, reading) and school motivation at age 16 Model 1 (Odds Ratio) Cohort (NCDS=base) BCS702.9 LSYPE33.6 Gender (male = base) Female1.2 Mother Education Father Education Parental Expectations R 2 (Nagelkerke).55

15. Predicting Education Expectations: Logistic Regression Controlling for academic attainment at age 10 (math, reading) and school motivation at age 16 Model 1 (Odds Ratio)Model 2 (Odds Ratio) Cohort (NCDS=base) BCS702.93.1 LSYPE33.621.6 Gender (male = base) Female1.21.1 Mother Education1.3 Father Education1.4 Parental Expectations15.4 R 2 (Nagelkerke).55.70

16. Pathway model (Schoon, 2010) Academic Attainment Parental Education Education Expectation School Motivation Parental expectation Age 10 Age 16

17. Covariates: 3 age cohorts NCDSBCS70LSYPE Parental Education ACA.57.54.58 Parental Expectation Teen Expectation.80.84.64 Parental Expectation School Motivation.47.35.29 School Motivation Teen Expectation.42.39.31

18. Pathway coefficients: 3 age cohorts NCDSBCS70LSYPE Parental Education -> Teenager’s Expectation.32.37.15 Parental Education -> School Motivation.14.11.05 Parental Education -> Parental Expectation.38.39.18 ACA -> Teenager’s Expectation.51.29.39 ACA -> School Motivation.24.16.11 ACA-> Parental Expectation.43.30.37

19. Findings (1): Social Inequalities Association between social background and academic attainment remains for all three cohorts Direct influence of social background on parental and teen expectations has reduced fro the later born cohort 19

20. Gender Differences

21. Covariates: 3 age cohorts NCDS men NCDS women BCS70 men BCS70 women LSYPE men LSYPE women Parental Education ACA.59.54.55.57 Parental Expectation Teen Expectation.83.78.83.84.66.58 Parental Expectation School Motivation.44.38.41.32.29 School Motivation Teen Expectation.47.46.44.35.32.34

22. Pathway coefficients: 3 age cohorts NCDS men NCDS women BCS70 men BCS70 women LSYPE men LSYPE women Parental Education - > Parental Expectation.39.38.35.45.16.06 Parental Education - > School Motivation.11.17.08.02 Parental Education - > Teen Expectation.31.33.32.42.08.11 ACA-> Parental Expectation.45.42.40.20.34.38 ACA -> School Motivation.26.23.13.19.15.16 ACA -> Teen Expectation.54.47.36.23.39.32

23. Findings Dramatic increase in education expectations among teens and their parents Massive cohort effect Girls more ambitious than boys Parents have higher expectations for their daughters Role of parental education and previous academic attainment has reduced for the later born cohort, suggesting emergence of a new norm 23

24. Conclusion Changing norms and expectations: further education for all Reversal of gender stratification High expectations may mask lack of motivation and academic capability Raising expectations is not enough: Need for guidance and information about how to realise one’s ambition Parents have to carry financial responsibility Danger of increasing marginalisation of disadvantaged young people, especially men 24

25. Reference Schoon, I. (2010). Planning for the future. Changing education expectations in three British cohorts. Historical Social Research, 35(2): 99-119

26. Thank you I.Schoon@city.ac.uk Thank You I.Schoon@ioe.ac.uk 26