1. Descriptive Statistics

2. Policy Perceptions on Food Security: Abuse of Averages Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011

3. 3 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security Sustained solution to morbidity All the more so,  Stagnant incomes of the poor  Perverse changes in consumption patterns – decline in cereal share  Trend reduction in average cereal consumption Policy Perceptions on Food Security

4. 4 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security  Trend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and 2004- 05  Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India 2100 kcals urban India Policy Perceptions on Food Security

5. Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004 5Policy Perceptions on Food Security

6. Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%) Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban) 6Policy Perceptions on Food Security

7. 7 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security  Consequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babies, anthropometric measures Policy Perceptions on Food Security

8. 8 Review Estimates of consumption patterns  Averages at current prices conceal rather than reveal dynamics of change.  Reflect changes in relative prices and not real changes in consumption patterns.  Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of changes. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

9. 9 Review  Cereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.  Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the bottom three decile groups but not quantities – dynamics of agricultural development.  Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile groups decreased for the top ones: convergence at a lower level. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

10. 10Policy Perceptions on Food Security

11. 11 Policy Perceptions on Food Security

12. 12Policy Perceptions on Food Security

13. 13Policy Perceptions on Food Security

14. 14 Consequences Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by conventional norms but not so by convergence norms. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

15. What is the evidence by disaggregate population groups?

16. 16Policy Perceptions on Food Security

17. 17Policy Perceptions on Food Security

18. 18Policy Perceptions on Food Security

19. 19Policy Perceptions on Food Security

20. Incidence of Malnutrition: States 20Policy Perceptions on Food Security

21. Growth Rate A Story of Computations

22. Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reform Source: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey 2002-2003, p. S – 4. YearAnnual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at 1993/94 prices) 1985-862.1 1986-871.8 1987-881.2 1988-898.3 1989-904.6 1990-913.3 1991-92-1.5 1992-933.1 1993-943.4 1994-954.9 1995-965.2 1996-976.1 1997-982.6 22 Growth Rate

23. SECTORS1999-20002000-20012001-20022002-2003*2003-04*2004-05*2005-06 *2006-07*2007-08*2008-09+ 1.1 Agriculture 3455054328780134802993580625397685537157194047401451529949850793929665 1.2 Forestry 171997159797162504155770151688134022133559144553143940136430 1.3 Fishing 82425781278149778708811047179680472794407872069081 1.Agricultur e & Allied Activities3709476352572537243003815103420964739215374261433473929252077384135176 2.Mining & Quarrying 155625165329173300184801202241215049222812236126256201219964 Primary Sector 3865101369105438976003999904441188841365864484245497541854639394355140 3.1 Registered 3123876248722323211902625334300053233239433598169399715742825904276802 3.2 Un registered 1010431108798010554411127456118659112729301366229151454916385271611735 3.Manufact uring Total4134307357520333766313752790418712345968724964398551170659211165888538 4.Electricity,gas and and water supply 382856447933357175430124445522523478561244543319629107645785 5.Constructi on 1291990113473012628821262050137434513980701486430208373125995223328045 Secondary Sector 5809152515786649966885444965600699065184217012072813875591497459862367 Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices) 23 Growth Rate

24. 2000- 2001 2001- 2002 2002- 2003* 2003- 04* 2004- 05* 2005-06 * 2006- 07* 2007- 08* 2008- 09 + CAGR 1.1 Agriculture(4.84)5.852.8811.07(6.57)8.9311.5610.40(21.17)1.44 1.2 Forestry(7.09)1.69(4.14)(2.62)(11.65)(0.35)8.23(0.42)(5.22)(2.54) 1.3 Fishing(5.21)4.31(3.42)3.04(11.48)12.09(1.28)(0.91)(12.24)(1.94) 1.Agriculture & Allied Activities(4.95)5.632.4410.34(6.84)8.6711.219.88(20.60)1.21 2.Mining & Quarrying6.244.826.649.446.333.615.988.50(14.14)3.92 Primary Sector(4.50)5.602.6210.30(6.24)8.4010.959.82(20.29)1.34 3.1 Registered(20.38)(6.68)13.1014.2910.788.2511.097.14(0.14)3.55 3.2 Un registered7.67(2.99)6.825.247.287.3310.868.19(1.64)5.33 3.Manufacturing Total(13.52)(5.55)11.1411.579.798.0011.027.43(0.55)4.01 4.Electricity,gas and and water supply17.00(20.26)20.423.5817.507.21(3.19)15.792.655.98 5.Construction(12.17)11.29(0.07)8.901.736.3240.1824.7528.0311.09 Secondary Sector(11.21)(3.12)8.9710.328.517.5716.0712.427.796.06 Industry Sector(10.76)(2.88)8.8910.298.447.4515.7612.317.196.01 Annual Growth rates 24 Growth Rate

25. Regression based Trend growth rates SECTORSTrend growth 1.1 Agriculture3.50 1.2 Forestry-2.39 1.3 Fishing-1.04 1.Agriculture & Allied Activities3.19 2.Mining & Quarrying5.19 Primary Sector3.28 3.1 Registered6.50 3.2 Un registered5.94 3.Manufacturing Total6.31 4.Electricity,gas and water supply6.34 5.Construction11.07 Secondary Sector7.58 Industry Sector7.51 25 Growth Rate