1. GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue Topic 6 –Commodities A – Space B – Minerals C – Food D – Water

2. Introduction ■Commodities Resources that can be consumed: Accumulated (some perishable). Exchanged. Purchased. Fixed commodities: Commodities that cannot be transferred (except title). Land, mining, logging and fishing rights. Value derived from utility and potential rate of extraction. Bulk commodities: Commodities that can be transferred. Grains, metals, livestock, oil, cotton, coffee, sugar and cocoa. Value derived from utility, supply and demand (market price). Energy will be the object of Topic 7.

3. Space ■1. Context ■2. Seas ■3. Forests ■4. Human Occupation A A

4. Context ■Competition for space Various uses of nature are competing for space. Biologically productive areas on the planet are the most desirable locations. Mutually exclusive uses of nature: Land used for wheat production cannot be used for roads, forests or grazing, and vice versa. The issue is that humans almost always win. Common transformations: Natural to agricultural: deforestation. Agricultural to urban: conversion. 1 1 Humans Nature Space

5. Context ■Main categories The Earth has a surface area of 51 billion hectares. 197 million square miles. 36.3 billion are sea (71%) and 14.7 billion are land (29%). 8.3 billion hectares (16%) of the land area are biologically productive: The most valuable. 6.4 billion hectares (13%) are marginally productive or unproductive: Covered by ice. Unsuitable soil conditions or lack of water. 1 1

6. Historical Global Land Use Change (in billions) 1 1

7. Seas ■Overview Covers 36.3 billion hectares (141 million square miles): 6 hectares per person (0.023 square miles). 8% account for over 95% of the seas’ ecological production. Marine production is already harvested to the maximum. Provide approximately 18 kilogram of fish per capita per year. 7% of humanity’s food supply. 90% of the large predatory fishes are gone (tuna, cod swordfish). Swordfish: –From average size of 300 pounds to 90 pounds. Measuring the ecological activity of the sea: Surface determines its productivity. Capturing of solar energy and the gas exchanges with the atmosphere are proportional to the surface. Consumed fish that people fancy are high up in the food chain, the food gains from sea space remain limited. 2 2

8. Forests ■Overview Farmed or natural forests that can yield timber products. Environmental functions: Erosion prevention. Climate stability. Maintenance of hydrological cycles. Sustaining ecological systems. 3.44 billion hectares covering our planet. 0.6 hectares per capita world-wide. The world has almost lost half of its original forest cover: 62 million km2 (1900) to 33 million (1995). Most of if was destroyed over the last 30 years. Forests left occupy ecologically less productive land with exception of some few remaining inaccessible jungle areas. 3 3

9. Changes in the World’s Forest Cover 3 3 Growing economies and consumption. Population growth and demand for new land. Bad economic policies that promote the overexploitation of forests. Corruption and illegal trade. Poverty and landlessness. Forest Cover by Region, Mid-1990s (in 1,000 square km)

10. Forests ■Fossil Energy Land (Carbon sink) Land that should be reserved for CO2 absorption. Little area is set aside to absorb CO2. Neither the biochemical energy of the used fossil fuel is replaced nor its waste products absorbed. Can also be defined as a carbon sink. Humanity is living off nature's capital rather than its interests. Using fossil fuel based products or burning fossil fuels can release toxic pollutants. Potential of using the oceans to store CO2 at great depths. 3 3

11. Forests ■Frontier Forests Original forest cover remains with large tracts of relatively undisturbed forest: Defined as the frontier forest. 40% of forest on Earth qualifies as frontier forest. Russia, Canada, and Brazil house almost 70% of the world’s remaining frontier forest. 39% of Earth’s remaining frontier forest is threatened by logging, agricultural clearing, and other human activity. 3% of the world’s frontier forest falls entirely within the temperate zone. Characterized by moderate climate, including much of the U.S and Europe. 3 3

12. Frontier Forests as Share of Total Remaining Forests (in %), mid 1990s 3 3

13. Human Occupation ■Arable land (cropland) Land suitable for agriculture. Ecologically speaking the most productive land. Location / regional conditions imply different types of suitability: Days without freezing. Average temperature. Precipitations. Type of soil. 1.4 billion hectares of arable land: Land surface of 13.0 billion hectares. Only 10% of the land is thus arable. Additional 3.5 billion hectares of pasture land. 10 million hectares per year lost to degradation. Less than 0.25 hectares per capita world-wide. 4 4

14. Land Suitability for Cereal Cultivation 2 2

15. Human Occupation ■Pasture Grazing land for dairy and cattle farming. Most of the 3.35 billion hectares of pasture, or 0.6 hectares per person, are significantly less productive than arable land. Potential for accumulating biomass is much lower. Expansion of pastures has been a main cause of shrinking forest areas. ■Built-up areas Host human settlements and roads. Extend approximately 0.03 hectares per capita world-wide. As most human settlements are located in the most fertile areas of the world, built-up land often leads to the irrevocable loss of prime arable land. 4 4

16. Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use, 1965-1997 (in millions of hectares) 4 4

17. Minerals ■1. Types of Minerals ■2. Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution B B

18. 1 1 Types of Minerals ■Mineral resources Inorganic substances that are extracted from the earth’s crust. Their presence is the outcome of geological processes. The value is derived from the utility of the mineral: Rare minerals used as a currency (gold, silver, diamonds, etc.). Construction materials. Metals that can be shaped to numerous uses. Energy (fossil fuels, uranium). Fertilizers. Concentrations of minerals in particular locations.

19. World Mineral Production, 1995 (in millions of tons) ■Energy minerals Oil, gas, coal, fissionable minerals such as uranium. ■Ferrous minerals Iron ore and other elements mainly used as ferro-alloys, such as manganese, silicon, nickel, cobalt, and tungsten. ■Non-ferrous metals Gold, silver, copper, aluminum (from bauxite), lead, zinc, tin, and platinum. ■Non-metallic minerals Construction: Limestone, gypsum, sand, gravel, and stone. Fertilizers: Phosphorus, potassium, sulfur, and nitrates. Salt: de-icing, chemicals (chlorine and sodium) and condiment. 1 1

20. Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution ■Mineral reserves Minerals recoverable from identified deposits under current technologies and economic conditions. Can change over time as technological advances make extraction more economically feasible. ■Mineral resources Reserves and other sources of the mineral that may eventually become available. Known deposits that are not currently profitably extractable. Undiscovered deposits that may be assumed to exist due to knowledge of a region's geological structures. Fixed quantity, unlike reserves. Economic Development Technological Development Threshold 2 2 Mineral resources Mineral reserves

21. Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution 2 2 Unbalanced; consumption and extraction are not commonly located at the same place

22. Minerals Production and Intensity of Use, 1970-2000 2 2

23. Food ■1. Food Models ■2. Nutrition Transition ■2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade ■3. The Green Revolution ■4. Agricultural Output and the Environment C C

24. Food Models ■The human diet Minimum caloric requirement: 2,700 calories for men and 2,000 calories for women, Diet is organized along models. Result of the socio-economic environment of the population: About 15 plants and 8 animal species supply 90% of food. Commonality of some food components in different parts of the world. Related to an average daily calorie intake. Linked to agricultural practices, but also to agribusiness and food processing industries. Development level and the distribution of agricultural production: Developed economies: industrial techniques are increasingly present in the diet. Third World countries: the diet remains often very simple and did not change for several hundred of years. 1 1

25. Global Food Insecurity 1 1

26. Annual Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products in Selected Countries, 1998 (in kilograms) 1 1

27. Food Models ■Malnutrition Imbalance (deficit or excess) in intake of nutrients. Hunger: Deficiency of calorie and protein. At least 1.2 billion people affected. Micronutrient deficiency: Deficiency of vitamins and minerals. 2.0 billion affected. Overconsumption: Excess of calories. Often accompanied by vitamins and minerals deficiencies. At least 1.2 billion people affected. 300 million people are obese. 1 1

28. Share of Underweight Children and Overweight Adults, Selected Countries, Mid 1990s 1 1

29. Food Models ■Changes in the diet Nutritional shift: From a diet dominated by grains and vegetables to a diet dominated by fats and sugars: Natural human desire for fat and sugar (energy dense foods; low satiation). Between 1980 and 2000 calorie intake in the US has risen nearly 10% for men and 7% for women. Increased corporate involvement in food supply: Caffeine is added (75% of sodas) to provide addiction. Massive usage of flavoring. Homogenization of global diets: Outcome of trade. Fast food industry. 1 1

30. Food Models ■Nutrition Transition Urban and sedentary: People are more often away from home. 1970: 75% of all food expenses spent to prepare meals at home. 2000: 50% of all food expenses for restaurants. Element of time. More woman in the labor force: Away from the traditional role of food preparation. Both members of a couple are often working. Less preparation time available: 90% of the money spent on food is spent on processed foods. 1 1

31. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, 1929-2002 1 1

32. Food Models ■Obesity 55% of the adult Americans (over 20 years) are overweight: 20% of men and 25% of women are obese (BMI 30; weight in kilograms, divided by the square of height in meters). 15% aged 6-19 are overweight. 2.2% morbidly obese (BMI 40). More prevalent among the poor (fat and sugar). Generation XXL: About 30% of American children are overweight (10% obese). NYC: About 43% overweight and 24% obese. Supersizing. Lack of physical activities. High fat and sugar diet, Diet-related diseases: 300,000 Americans die prematurely each year as a result of being overweight. Americans spend 40 billion per year on weight-loss products and services. Weight-loss products have been linked with growing obesity. People simply eat more “fat-free” products. 1 1

33. Food Models ■The “Fast Food” diet Higher sugar and fat content: Value added and high profits food products. Fast food industry: $110 billion a year industry. Largest group of minimum wage workers in the US (3.5 million). 25% of the adult population visit a fast food restaurant every single day. Most fast food is delivered to the restaurant already frozen, canned, dehydrated, or freeze-dried. A fast food kitchen is merely the final stage in a vast and highly complex system of mass production. Fast food, sweetened cereals and candy: 50% of all food ads. Targeting the children and inculcate a nutritional consumption leaning on sugars and fats (schools). 1 1

34. Food Models ■“Supersizing” Larger containers and quantities: Larger package size can increase consumption up to 55%. 1950s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 6.5 ounces. 1990s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 20 ounces. Little cost for the supplier: Brand name, packaging and marketing are dominant in pricing. Larger quantities directly means higher profits. Skew the perception of normal nutritional intake. 1 1

35. Food Production, Consumption and Trade ■Food production Has been able to keep up with population growth: Expansion of arable land. Green Revolution. Environmental stress, soil degradation and destruction of ecosystems. Increased dependency on fertilizers and irrigation. Gradual shift to lower quality sources of protein: From beef to pork and poultry. Intensification of aquaculture: Try to replace exhausted fish supplies. More rational use of oceanic resources. 2 2

36. World Protein Production by Source, 1950-2000 2 2

37. Food Production, Consumption and Trade ■Deficit and distribution Overcome shortages: Import what is lacking in the national production. An economy needs to generate sufficient surpluses from other sectors. Purchase enough food to overcome the national deficit: Very few Third World countries can afford to do so. Africa: Region facing the most intensive shortages. Chronic dependency of food aid. China: Fast industrialization. Growing importer of food. India: Intense irrigation projects. Has become self-sufficient, but may have reached a limit. 2 2

38. Food Production, Consumption and Trade ■International trade of agricultural goods About 9% of global exchanges in commodities. The nature, origin and destination of food trade is linked to a number of factors: If the good is perishable. Consumption habits. The profit that can be derived from trading food products. Highly linked to export cultures that are produced strictly to generate income. Third World countries are massively involved in these types of cultures. 2 2

39. Exports of Cereals, 1960-2003 (in 1000s of tons) 2 2

40. Grain Imports for Selected Countries, 1990, With Projected Need for Imported Grain in 2030 2 2

41. World Coffee Production and Trade, 2003 2 2 Share of Developing countries in global exports of agricultural goods, 2000

42. The Green Revolution ■Context Strong population growth in the second half of the 20th century. New techniques were required to increase production. New land was becoming scarce. Labor was difficult to add to existing agricultural systems. ■Increasing the agricultural output Green Revolution in the 1960s. New varieties of wheat, corn and rice: 1920: 20 bushels per acre (wheat). 1997: 120 bushels per acre (wheat). Enabling up to three harvests per year and increased outputs. 3 3

43. The Green Revolution ■Strategy Focused more on scientific achievements rather than on mechanization of agriculture. Focused on genetics and pedology (soil science). The development of new seed strains: Increase agricultural production. Make crops more resistant to diseases. Development of hybrids. New strains do not occur naturally. The improvement of inputs into soils: Fertilizers of various types. Enhance the productivity of previously marginal soils. Irrigation in dry areas (40% of our food comes from irrigation). Boost productivity in many world regions but not without costs. 3 3

44. Fertilizer Response Curve for Corn 3 3

45. The Green Revolution ■Net impact Increased agricultural output in many areas. Increased the cost of agriculture. Decreased agricultural employment in many areas: Benefits accrued to the wealthier and middle class farmers who could afford its more costly inputs. Increased landlessness among the peasantry. Increased surplus population in rural areas. Increased rural to urban migration in many developing countries. Increased political instability in many places. 3 3

46. Global Production of Major Grains, 1961-2004 (in M tons) 3 3

47. Global Cereal Yields, 1961-2004 (kg per hectare) 3 3

48. Change in Cereal Yields, 1965-2002 3 3 Cereal Output per Hectare, 2000 (kg)

49. Production and Yield of Wheat in China and India, 1961-2004 3 3

50. Mechanization and Performance of Agriculture, 1995-1998, Selected Countries 3 3

51. The Green Revolution ■The Green Revolution and economic dependency Requires irrigation systems, fertilisers and pesticides. Agriculture is now more capital intensive: Fertilisers and pesticides are often produced by multinational corporations. Seeds are also produced. Financing agriculture: Increasing linkages with financial institutions. Borrowed money to purchase inputs, fell into debt, and lost their land to creditors when they were unable to pay. Put the peasant in a debt cycle. In many areas the Green Revolution increased landlessness among the peasantry. 3 3

52. The Green Revolution ■Future of agriculture? Improving the performance of plants and animals: Genetical engineering; transgenic crops. Controlled ripening (enzyme). Herbicide and fungal resistance. Animal diet (increased absorption). Improved nutrition (more amino acids, vitamins and easier digestion). Modifying life to suit medical, industrial and energy purposes: Disease fighters (bananas and potatoes delivering vaccine). Manufacturing (colored cotton; plastic making corn; rubber making sunflower). Hydrogen producing algae. 3 3

53. 4 4 Agricultural Output and the Environment ■Maintaining agricultural output Context of increased food demand. Provide food for the expected population surge of 1.5 billion people between 2000 and 2020. Expansion of land under cultivation. Intensified cultivation; higher productivity per unit of surface. Efforts aimed at intensified cultivation are now much more critical than only 20 years ago.

54. Agricultural Output and the Environment ■Expansion potential Reserves still exist in the developing countries for expanding agricultural land. Very unevenly distributed. Found mainly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Asian countries, especially the most densely populated, have only slight expansion possibilities. Demographic pressure pushes towards that strategy. 4 4

55. Grain Harvested Area per Person, 1995-2020 (in square meters) 4 4

56. Grain Equivalent to Produce Meat (in kg) 4 4

57. Meat Production, United States and China 1961-2003 (in tons) 4 4

58. Agricultural Output and the Environment ■Consequences Rapidly deterioration of environmental quality. Extended soil degradation: Nutrient depletion. Erosion. Salination. Dwindling availability of water resources: Agriculture accounts for 70% of all fresh water withdrawals. Exhaustion of aquifers. Water pollution by fertilizers and pesticides. Loss of animal and plant species (biodiversity): 20 to 30% of the world’s forest converted to agriculture. 50% of all species are in danger of extinction. Threatening national parks and protected areas. 4 4

59. Water ■1. Sources of Water ■2. Water Development Projects ■3. Water Use D D

60. Sources of Water ■Rivers, lakes, and streams Traditional sources of water. 50% of all major rivers are polluted and overused. 700 million Chinese are drinking contaminated water. ■Aquifers Important water sources, especially in many dry areas. Wells of various kinds tap into the water table to draw upon underground sources of water. 51% of all the drinking water in the US. Many aquifers are re-charged: Receive water through percolation of rainwater through the overlying soil and rock structure. 1 1

61. Sources of Water ■Fossil aquifers They lie under arid regions today. Formed in earlier geologic periods when the region may have received greater precipitation. Not being re-charged: a non-renewable resource. The aquifer underlying parts of Saudi Arabia falls into this category. ■De-salinization of sea water Remains an expensive alternative. Not produced satisfactory results in many areas, at least as far as human consumption is concerned. Technologies for de-salinization are receiving greater priority. Moving from steam-process to filtration (osmosis). Pushed the price for desalted seawater down to $2 for a thousand gallons, compared with $6 around 1990. 1 1

62. Sources of Water (in cubic miles) 1 1

63. Water Development Projects ■Context Increasing the amount of usable water for the various purposes that follow. These projects are not without their limits or with their attendant problems. ■Dam construction Assisted tremendously in achieving the increases registered in irrigation worldwide. Reaching the point where further increases will be difficult to realize. Relatively few remaining rivers and streams. More than 45,000 dams have been constructed worldwide. The rate of construction has declined recently. 2 2

64. Commissioning of Large Dams 2 2

65. Water Development Projects ■Problems with dams They are exceptionally expensive to build: Large dams cost billions of dollars. Displace many people in areas to be flooded by the reservoir that is created behind the dam. The reservoir takes some land out of production. Dredging: The outcome of siltation. The volume of sediments deposited from upstream by the river that is dammed can outstrip the capacity to dredge. The reservoir may eventually fill in and the dam will become useless. The rate of sedimentation increases with population growth and the expansion of agriculture in the upstream locations. The flood control achieved by the dam is helpful in some ways. 2 2

66. Largest Dam Reservoirs 2 2

67. Water Development Projects ■River diversion Re-channeling water in some areas to render it more readily available for use, especially in agriculture. Reduces water flow to downstream locations. Sometimes, international boundaries are crossed by rivers. Removal of water for purposes upstream means that less water is available in the country (or countries) that lies downstream. ■Rivers no longer reaching the sea The Nile in Egypt. The Ganges in South Asia. The Yellow River in China. The Colorado River in North America. 2 2

68. Water Development Projects ■The Nile The construction of the Aswan High Dam in southern Egypt. Interrupted the seasonal pattern of flooding along the Nile Valley. These floods throughout history have served to replenish the soils of the valley. The soils are now not receiving the necessary nutrients and may be depleted. Usage of fertilizers instead. Irrigation water from the dam also enabled Egypt to double agricultural production. Created increased soil salinity in the process. 2 2 Aswan High Dam

69. Water Use ■Water use Tripled since 1950 Water use is increasing at a pace faster than population. Linked with rising living standards. ■Roles Water has two primary contradictory roles: Key life support for all species and natural communities. A commodity to be sold and used for agricultural, industrial, and urban purposes. The overuse of water and the pollution, if allowed to proceed unchecked, render the first role unsustainable. 3 3

70. Global Water Withdrawal by Sector, 1900-2000 (in cubic km) 3 3

71. Water Use ■Agriculture Fast growth of water requirements. Population growth. Expansion of the land under cultivation. Irrigation necessary to render arable otherwise marginal land. ■Industrial Used by heavy industry, notably mining. Industrialization is leading to rapid increases in water use. ■Municipal Direct human consumption of water for drinking and cooking purposes, sewage treatment, space heating, and other uses. Highly concentrated geographically due to urbanization. A human being needs 3-5 liters of water per day. 3 3

72. Percentage of Land Irrigated 3 3 Irrigated Area, Top 10 Countries, 1995 (in millions of hectares)

73. Water Required to Produce 1 kg of Food (in liters) 3 3

74. Water Use ■Water losses Loss of water before it can be used. Result of human activity and/or alteration of the environment. Such losses amount to just 5% of water use. Evaporation of still water from reservoirs. Inefficient irrigation practices. Infrastructure decay: Urban plumbing and sewer systems. Problematic in many developing countries that cannot afford better upkeep. Water pollution: 20% of rivers in China are severely polluted. 80% cannot sustain commercial fishing. 3 3

75. The Bottom Line with Commodities ■Human activities are dependant on commodities Several commodities cannot be substituted. Many are not renewable. ■Price and availability Supply and demand. Level of utility. The demand is expected to rise substantially. The supply of many commodities will not.