1. Solving the Energy, Climate, and Air-Quality-Health Crises With Wind Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University JP Morgan’s Fourth Annual Public Power & Gas Conference New York City, New York May 11, 2006

2. Temperature Changes 1880-2005

3. Los Angeles (Dec. 2000) Mark Z. Jacobson

4. Direct and Externality Costs of Three Energy Sources Sources: DOE Office of Fossil Energy (2001)Science 293, 1438 (2001) Derived From UNEP (2001)European Commission (1995) Atmos. Environ. 35, 4763 (2001) DirectGlobal Particle OtherTotal costwarminghealthenviron.cost (¢/kWh)costcostcost(¢/kWh) (¢/kWh) (¢/kWh)(¢/kWh) New coal3.5-40.4-13-81.6-3.38.5-16 New nat gas3.3-3.60.7-1.10.4-20.5-1.14.9-7.8 New wind2.9-4.7<0.1<0.1<0.12.9-5.0

5. Energy Cost From New, Large Turbine New 1500 kW turbine, 77-m diameter blade, 7-7.5 m/s annual winds Energy produced per year: = 4.68-5.24 x 10 6 kWh/yr Cost of turbine+installation+land +financing+roads+consultancy = $1000/kW Amortize over 20 years @ 6-8% = $131,000-153,000/yr Annual O&M @ 1.5-2.5% of turbine= $18,000-$30,000/yr Total direct cost= $149,000-$183,000/yr Direct cost per unit energy produced = 2.9-3.9 ¢/kWh Long-distance transmission cost= 0-0.8 ¢/kWh Total cost:= 2.9-4.7 ¢/kWh

6. Installed Wind Capacity Worldwide CountryInstalled Capacity (MW) Germany16,629 Spain8,263 U.S.6,740 Denmark3,117 India3,000 World50,000 as of October, 2005 Individual turbine ≈ 1 MW --> ≈ 50,000 turbines

7. Wind Power For Electricity Global electric power demand:1.6-1.8 TW Average wind speed at 80 m height offshore:~8.6 m/s How many 5 MW turbines in 8.5 m/s winds needed to satisfy global electric demand?~860,000 What % of water within 25 km of world’s 1.6 million km of coast needs to be shallow/windy?~0.9

8. Wind Power For all Energy Global overall power demand:9.4-13.6 TW How many turbines needed?~5,000,000 What % water within 25 km of a coast needed?~4.9 Available global wind over land/near shore > 6.9 m/s: ~72 TW -->Enough wind for 40x all electric power, 6x all energy Available solar power at surface over land: ~31,000 TW Available tidal power*: ~3.7 TW Available wave power*: ~5 TW Available hydropower* (5% already used): ~6.5 TW Ethanol forms acetaldehyde, the 3 rd -leading ozone precursor Ethanol from corn -- carbon neutral at best Ethanol from switchgrass -- carbon uncertain but still high

9. Water Depths ≤ 50 m (blue) within 25 km (Red Line) of California’s Coast Dvorak and Jacobson (2006)

10. Impacts of Wind vs. Fossil-/Biofuels U.S. bird deaths from 7000 turbines 10,000-40,000/yr (!) U.S. bird deaths from transmission towers: 50 million/yr (!) Worldwide bird deaths from avian flu:200 million/yr (%) Extrapolated bird deaths with 860,000 turbines: 1.2 million/yr Extrapolated bird deaths with 5,000,000 turbines: 7.1 million/yr Premature U.S. deaths fossil-/biofuel pollution: 80,000-137,000/yr (*) U.S. respiratory illness fossil-/biofuels: 63-105 million/yr (*) U.S. asthma fossil-/biofuels: 6-14 million/yr (*) The effect of wind turbines on birds will always be trivial relative to the benefit of reducing fossil-biofuels on human and animal illness. (!) Bird Conservancy (April 2006); (%) San Jose Mercury News (April 2006) (*) McCubbin and Delucchi (1999)

11. Mean 80-m Wind Speed in Europe Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/

12. Mean 80-m Wind Speed in North America

13. New Offshore Wind Farm June 20, 2003 - CNC “A study by Stanford University reported that…the greatest reservoir of previously uncharted wind power in the continental U.S. may be offshore and onshore along the southeastern and southern coasts. Ever since it was released, Texas's General Land Office has been fielding calls from developers.” October 24, 2005 - USA Today “Texas has sold a lease for an 11,000-acre tract in the Gulf of Mexico that backers believe could become the first wind energy farm along the U.S. coast, state officials announced Monday.

14. Wind Speed and Ocean Depth Maps Courtesy U. Deleware Grad. College Marine Studies Red/dark blue > 7.5 m/s wind All but dark blue < 21 m deep

15. Proposed Nantucket Sound Windfarm Courtesy U. Deleware Grad. College Marine Studies

16. Reducing transmission capacity 20% reduces power 9.8% with 1 turbine but only 1.6% with 19 turbines Firming Wind by Aggregating Farms 19 connected wind farms produce 33% firm power (222 kW out of 670 kW expected power from 1500 kW turbines) when operating at 87.5% reliability, the average for a U.S. coal plant). Archer and Jacobson (2006)

17. Aggregate Wind Power (MW) From 81% of Spain’s Grid Versus Time of Day, Oct. 26, 2005

18. Simulations of Future Vehicle Scenarios Baseline case (1999 fleet of onroad vehicles) Hybrid case Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV), where H 2 from –Steam-reforming of natural gas –Wind-electrolysis –Coal gasification Jacobson, Colella, Golden (2005)

19. Percent Reduction in Total U.S. Anthropogenic Emission Upon Switching Onroad Vehicles to Hydrogen from Steam-Reforming of Natural Gas PollutantPercent Reduction PollutantPercent Reduction CO 2 -15Ethene-25 CH 4 +21Formald.-20 CO-55Higher ald.-52 NO x -33Toluene-17 SO 2 +2Xylene-28 NH 3 -5.3BC 2.5 -15 Paraffins-27OM 2.5 -2

20. Near-Surf. Black Carbon Diff. (  g/m 3 ) Natural gas-HFCV minus baseWind-HFCV minus baseCoal-HFCV minus baseHybrid minus base

21. Annual Reduction in Illness/Mortality HybridNat. gasWindCoal Asthma (millions) 0.3-0.91.2-3.4 1.1-3.3 Resp. Illness (millions) 5-818-30 17-29 Death1400-24003700-6400 2700-4700

22. Reduction in Health/Climate Costs For Each Scenario HybridNat. gasWindCoal Billion $/yr 15-10333-24846-28310-149 $/gallon Gas/diesel displaced 0.09-0.650.21-1.580.29-1.800.06-0.95

23. Summary Sufficient winds are available worldwide to supply all electric power and nonelectric-power energy sources. 33-45% of wind power can be firmed by interconnecting wind farms. The rest, which is intermittent, can be used in wind- electrolysis/hydrogen fuel cells and wind-battery systems. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reduce air pollution significantly, regardless of whether hydrogen in produced from wind, natural gas, or coal gasification. Wind-H is better for climate than natural gas-H. Hybrids are better for climate but worse for air quality than coal-H. By comparison, ethanol produces acetaldehyde, the third leading ozone-smog precursor, and it hampers efforts to improve air quality in California. CO 2 balances for ethanol vary with large uncertainties.

24. Summary U.S. ($/gal) Gas cost Feb. 13. ‘06:2.28 Gas+externality:2.57-4.08 Near-term cost of hydrogen from wind-electrolysis Electricity ($0.03-$0.05/kWh+transmiss)$1.60-3.77/kg-H 2 Electrolyzer (50-95% occupied)$0.39-2.00/kg-H 2 Water$0.005-0.009/kg-H 2 Compressor$0.70-1.34/kg-H 2 Storage$0.31-0.31/kg-H 2 Total$3.01-7.43/kg-H 2 Total per gallon of gasoline displaced:$1.12-3.20/gallon Near-term cost of H 2 from wind may be ≤ real cost of gasoline