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Classification: Internal Status: Draft Oslo Group expert meeting: A user perspective Oslo, May 18., 2009 Øivind Ekne, Leading Advisor, Market Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Classification: Internal Status: Draft Oslo Group expert meeting: A user perspective Oslo, May 18., 2009 Øivind Ekne, Leading Advisor, Market Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Classification: Internal Status: Draft Oslo Group expert meeting: A user perspective Oslo, May 18., 2009 Øivind Ekne, Leading Advisor, Market Analysis and Strategy, Oil Trading and Supply, StatoilHydro

2 2 What we do Requiring a broad range of statistics Supporting trading activity –Short term focus –Oil, natural gas, CO 2 –Demand/supply Production, import/export, stocks, end use volumes and prices Supporting strategic decisions; investments & divestments –Explaining, forecasting, scenarios –Medium & long term focus –Energy balance; all forms of energy Production, import/export, stocks, end use volumes and prices –Underlying factors driving energy demand and competition between energy sources Additional arguments –Better information More efficient markets –“What gets measured gets managed”

3 3 Our “wish list” Consistency –Over time and across borders; ability to aggregate –Across energy sources; units and calorific value –Reporting structure (layout, formats) Timely –Statistics are driving market developments, markets can move quickly Availability and easy access –Easy overview of available statistics –Easy to choose time series etc. –Download options, industry standard formats Accuracy –How accurate is accurate enough? 10% rule? –May push towards timeliness push inaccuracy? –Commercial sensitivity versus accuracy

4 4 The element of timing 5 min. 60 min. Markets can move significantly in a matter of minutes. Example of price driver: EIA/DOE weekly statistics

5 5 Best practice: EIA/DOE U.S. Data Summary Weekly Supply Estimates Weekly Supply Estimates U.S. Crude Oil Supply & Disposition more Summary dataU.S. Crude Oil Supply & Dispositionmore Summary data Prices Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices Spot Prices World Crude Oil Prices more Price dataSpot PricesWorld Crude Oil Pricesmore Price data Crude Reserves & Production Crude Oil Production Crude Oil Production Reserves, Reserves Changes, and Production more Crude Reserves & Production dataReserves, Reserves Changes, and Productionmore Crude Reserves & Production data Refining & Processing Weekly Inputs, Utilization & Production Weekly Inputs, Utilization & Production Refinery Yield more Refining & Processing dataRefinery Yieldmore Refining & Processing data Imports/Exports & Pipelines Weekly Imports & Exports Weekly Imports & Exports U.S. Imports by Country of Origin more Imports/Exports & Pipelines dataU.S. Imports by Country of Originmore Imports/Exports & Pipelines data Stocks Total Stocks (Weekly & Monthly) Stocks by Type more Stocks dataTotal Stocks (Weekly & Monthly)Stocks by Typemore Stocks data Consumption/Sales Product Supplied Product Supplied Prime Supplier Sales Volumes more Consumption/Sales dataPrime Supplier Sales Volumesmore Consumption/Sales data Reports This Week in PetroleumThis Week in Petroleum normally updated Wednesday 1 p.m. (schedule) Weekly Petroleum Status Report normally updated Wednesday 10:30 a.m. (schedule) Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule) U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule) Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices normally updated Monday by 5 p.m. (schedule) more Petroleum Reports...schedule Weekly Petroleum Status Reportschedule Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Updateschedule U.S. Retail Gasoline Pricesschedule Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Pricesschedulemore Petroleum Reports... Analyses Market Assessment of Planned Refinery OutagesMarket Assessment of Planned Refinery Outages Apr 2009 Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? June 2008 How dependent are we on foreign oil? May 2008 Primer on Gasoline Prices Primer on Diesel Fuel Prices Residential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should Know State Energy Profiles Real (vs. Nominal) Petroleum Prices updated monthly more Petroleum Analyses... Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? How dependent are we on foreign oil? Primer on Gasoline Prices Primer on Diesel Fuel Prices Residential Heating Oil Prices: What Consumers Should Know State Energy Profiles Real (vs. Nominal) Petroleum Prices more Petroleum Analyses... Forecasts Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy OutlookShort-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook

6 6 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Released after 10:00 p.m. Released after 10:30 a.m. Highlights: Weekly Petroleum Status Report HighlightsPDFPDF Tables: H1 Petroleum Supply SummaryPDFPDF 1U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, 4 Weeks EndingPDFTXT,CSVPDFTXTCSV 2U.S. Petroleum ActivityHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 3Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, U.S. TotalsHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 4Stocks of Motor Gasoline by PAD DistrictHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 5Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil by PAD DistrictHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 6Stocks of Residual Fuel Oil by PAD DistrictHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 7Stocks of Propane/Propylene by PAD Districts I, II, and III, and (IV & V)HTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 8U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum ProductsHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 9U.S. Imports of Petroleum Products by ProductHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 10U.S. Petroleum Products SuppliedHTML,PDF,XLSHTMLPDFXLS 11U.S. and PAD District Weekly Estimates, Most Recent 4 WeeksHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS 12U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week EndingPDF,TXT,CSVPDFTXTCSV 13World Crude Oil PricesHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS 14Spot Prices of Crude Oil, Motor Gasoline, and Heating OilsHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS 15Spot Prices of Low-Sulfur Diesel, Kerosene-Type Jet, Residual Fuels, and PropaneHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS 16NYMEX Futures Prices of Crude Oil, Motor Gasoline, No. 2 Heating Oil, and PropaneHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS 17U.S. Retail Motor Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel PricesHTML,PDF,TXT,CSV,XLSHTMLPDFTXTCSVXLS + figures, sources, appendices and glossary

7 7 Other issues Euroilstock improvement (example ARA stocks weekly?) The Norwegian OD (for NCS) seems to be best practice on production data Strengthen reporting from Non-OECD –Large emerging economies like China and India crucial JODI.org – continued development? –Six international organizations supporting JODI (APEC, Eurostat, IEA, OLADE, OPEC and UNSD) –Assess the oil data situation in their respective member countries in order to better qualify and quantify the lack of transparency. The assessment included the collection of monthly oil statistics from each organisation’s member countries through a harmonized questionnaire on 42 key oil data points. User friendly downloading example: FED St. Louis Challenges with stocks: Oil in transit, floating storage, primary vs. secondary & tertiary Incentives for industry to voluntarily provide data? (Prisoner’s dilemma?) Bio fuels – the whole value chain CO 2 and other greenhouse gas reports

8 8 The JODI World Database This database should in no way be seen as a final product. The database evolves continuously. The quality of the data is assessed on a continuous basis too (see also ‘Database’ section). Other flows already collected through the JODI questionnaire, like imports and exports, will be included at a later stage. Making the data available was only the first step towards more transparency.Database The database consists of: Seven product categories: Crude Oil, LPG, Gasoline, Kerosene, Diesel Oil, Fuel Oil and Total Oil, Six flows: Production, Demand, Refinery Intake and Output, Closing Stock Levels and Stock Change. Data in three different units: barrels, tons and litres Data for more than 90 participating countries Data from January 2002 to one month-old. The current features of the database enable users to quickly access and view data from different perspectives. Users can consult metadata, select and filter user-defined views, search for specific data, export data in multiple formats and visualize data through interactive charting (see also ‘First Time User’).First Time User The JODI partner organizations submitted to the participating countries/economies an expanded JODI questionnaire with additional flows and products. Since March 2007, an exercise is running, for a trial period, to assess how many participating countries are in position to fill in the expanded questionnaire, with the aim of evaluating this exercise at the next JODI conference that should take place at the end of 2008. The organizations are very committed to these objectives but they cannot do it alone. They need full co-operation from countries and the oil industry. They also need comments from the users, be it praise or criticism and of course any suggestions are welcome.


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