1. anchorage crossroads to the world 2004 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 21, 2004 Anchorage, Alaska Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER

2. anchorage crossroads to the world Annual Rate of Job Growth

3. anchorage crossroads to the world 2003: How We Did Jobs Population Unemployment Personal Income Average Wage Inflation

4. anchorage crossroads to the world 2004: The Year Ahead Positives Federal Spending--strong Confidence Quotient -- cautiously upbeat Oil Price--high Mining -- lots of action National Economy -- picking up Stock Market--up Negatives National Economy -- uncertain recovery War on Terrorism-- uncertain Fiscal Gap--unresolved Seafood/Timber-- struggling PFD -- down Interest Rates -- edging up

5. anchorage crossroads to the world Where are the Jobs?

6. anchorage crossroads to the world Private Service Economy

7. anchorage crossroads to the world Health 17,200 Total Health Jobs Health care will again lead all industries in adding new jobs to the economy. +1,000 Jobs Examples: Providence Hospital Southcentral Foundation Recent Job Growth

8. anchorage crossroads to the world Leisure & Hospitality 15,000 Total Leisure and Hospitality Jobs Several factors will combine to insure a strong year for tourism, so the leisure and hospitality sector will record another year of strong growth. +400 Jobs Examples: Westmark Hotels McDonalds Restaurants The Alaska Club Recent Job Growth

9. anchorage crossroads to the world Trade 22,000 Total Trade Jobs Increasing consumer income in Anchorage and throughout the state will provide the driving force for another year of growth in the trade sector. +250 jobs Examples: Wal-Mart Safeway Recent Job Growth

10. anchorage crossroads to the world Professional & Business Services 17,200 Total Professional and Business Services Jobs Expanding business opportunities will drive job growth in this sector, although a peaking construction boom will slow the increase from prior years. +200 Jobs Examples: Alaska Executive Search Lounsbury and Associates Inc. Recent Job Growth

11. anchorage crossroads to the world Other Services 6,100 Total Other Services Jobs Growing consumer income drives growth in services to households. +150 Jobs Examples: Alaska Cleaners Salvation Army Recent Job Growth

12. anchorage crossroads to the world Transportation & Utilities 10,600 Total Transportation and Utilities Jobs After a loss of jobs last year, we project no change for this sector. No Change Examples: Chugach Electric Association Federal Express Recent Job Growth

13. anchorage crossroads to the world Finance 8,400 Total Finance Jobs Higher interest rates will hold employment in the finance sector to the same level as last year. No Change Examples: Alaska USA Federal Credit Union Ribelen Lowell and Company Recent Job Growth

14. anchorage crossroads to the world Information 4,600 Total Information Jobs No change is expected in jobs in this part of the economy. No Change Examples: GCI Communications Anchorage Daily News Recent Job Growth

15. anchorage crossroads to the world Natural Resources 2,500 Total Natural Resources Jobs After two years of falling employment, jobs in petroleum and mining will stabilize and we expect no change. No Change Examples: British Petroleum Conoco Phillips Recent Job Growth

16. anchorage crossroads to the world Construction 8,300 Total Construction Jobs Growing construction spending has been one of the big drivers of the economy for several years, but its impact is moderating. Activity will remain high, but we expect no change in the level of employment. No Change Examples: Neeser Construction Inc. Spinell Homes Inc Recent Job Growth

17. anchorage crossroads to the world Manufacturing 1,900 Total Manufacturing Jobs Manufacturing makes a small contribution to the economy. We expect no change in jobs this year. No Change Examples: Europa Bakery Anchorage Tank and Welding Inc. Recent Job Growth

18. anchorage crossroads to the world Government 30,500 Total Government Jobs Federal, state, and local government spending will be tight again this year. Budget cuts will lead to state and local job losses of 100 compared to last year. -100 Jobs Examples: Anchorage School District US Fish and Wildlife Service Recent Job Growth

19. anchorage crossroads to the world Job Growth Summary

20. anchorage crossroads to the world Concluding Caveat Federal Spending Bubble State Government Living Beyond Its Means Other Economic Drivers