1. Abdelzaher (UIUC)

2. Research Milestones DueDescription Q1 Estimation-theoretic QoI analysis. Formulation of analytic models for quantifying accuracy of prediction/estimation results. Q2 Extended analysis of semantic links in information networks. Formulation of information network abstractions that are amenable to analysis as new sensors in a data fusion framework. Q3 Data pool quality metrics and impact of data fusion. Formulation of metrics for data selection when all data cannot be used/sent. Q4Validation of QoI theory. Documentation and publications.

3. Research Milestones DueDescription Q1 Estimation-theoretic QoI analysis. Formulation of analytic models for quantifying accuracy of prediction/estimation results. Q2 Extended analysis of semantic links in information networks. Formulation of information network abstractions that are amenable to analysis as new sensors in a data fusion framework. Q3 Data pool quality metrics and impact of data fusion. Formulation of metrics for data selection when all data cannot be used/sent. Q4Validation of QoI theory. Documentation and publications.

4. 4 Signal data fusion Information Network Analysis Sensors, reports, and human sources Trust, Social Networks Methods: Bayesian analysis Maximum likelihood Estimation etc. Methods: Ranking Clustering etc. Methods: Fact-finding Influence analysis etc. Machine Learning Methods: Transfer knowledge CCM etc. Fusion of hard sources Fusion of soft sources Fusion of text and images Fusion from human sources This Talk: Towards a QoI Theory for Data Fusion from Sensors + Information network links

5. Infrared motion sensor Target Sensor Fusion Example: Target Classification Vibration sensors Acoustic sensors Different sensors (of known reliability, false alarm rates, etc) are used to classify targets Well-developed theory exists to combine possibly conflicting sensor measurements to accurately estimate target attributes. Bayesian analysis Maximum likelihood Kalman filters etc.

6. Information Network Mining Example: Fact-finding Example 1: Consider a graph of who published where (but no prior knowledge of these individuals and conferences) Rank conferences and authors by importance in their field Han Abdelzaher Roth Sensys KDD WWW Fusion Example 2: Consider a graph of who said what (sources and assertions but no prior knowledge of their credibility) Rank sources and assertions by credibility John Sally Mike Claim4 Claim1 Claim3 Claim2

7. The Challenge How to combine information from sensors and information network links to offer a rigorous quantification of QoI (e.g., correctness probability) with minimal prior knowledge? Infrared motion sensor Target Vibration sensors Acoustic sensors John Sally Mike Claim4 Claim1 Claim3 Claim2 + P(armed convoy)=?

8. Applications Understand Civil Unrest Remote situation assessment Use Twitter feeds, news, cameras, … Expedite Disaster Recovery Damage assessment and first response Use sensor feeds, eye witness reports, … Reduce Traffic Congestion Maping traffic congestion in city Use crowd-sourcing (of cell-phone GPS measurements), speed sensor readings, eye witness reports, …

9. Approach: Back to the Basics Interpret the simplest fact-finder as a classical (Bayesian) sensor fusion problem Identify the duality between information link analysis and Bayesian sensor fusion (links = sensor readings) Use that duality to quantify probability of correctness of fusion (i.e., information link analysis) results Incrementally extend analysis to more complex information network models and mining algorithms

10. An Interdisciplinary Team Abdelzaher (QoI, sensor fusion) Roth (fact-finders, machine learning) Aggarwal, Han (Data mining, veracity analysis) Fusion Task I1.1 QoI Mining Task I3.1 QoI Task I1.2

11. The Bayesian Interpretation The Simplest Fact-finder: John Sally Mike Claim4 Claim1 Claim3 Claim2 The Simplest Bayesian Classifier (Naïve Bayesian):

12. The Equivalence Condition We know that for a sufficiently small x k : Consider individually unreliable sensors:

13. A Bayesian Fact-finder and: By duality, if: Then, Bayes Theorem eventually leads to:

14. Fusion of Sensors and Information Networks Putting fusion of sensors and information network link analysis on a common analytic foundation: Can quantify probability of correctness of results Can leverage existing theory to derive accuracy bounds Source1 Source3 Source2 Claim4 Claim1 Claim3 Claim2 Sensor1 Sensor2 Sensor3 Fusion Result Information Network

15. Fusion of Sensors and Information Networks Putting fusion of sensors and information network link analysis on a common analytic foundation: Can quantify probability of correctness of results Can leverage existing theory to derive accuracy bounds Source1 Source3 Source2 Claim4 Claim1 Claim3 Claim2 Sensor1 Sensor2 Sensor3 Fusion Result Information Network Measurements

16. Simulation-based Evaluation Generate thousands of “assertions” (some true, some false – unknown to the fact-finder) Generate tens of sources (each source has a different probability of being correct – unknown to the fact-finder) Sources make true/false assertions consistently with their probability of correctness A link is created between each source and each assertion it makes Analyze the resulting network to determine: The set of true and false assertions The probability that a source is correct No prior knowledge of individual sources and assertions is assumed

17. Evaluation Results Comparison to 4 fact-finders from literature Significantly improved prediction accuracy of source correctness probability (from 20% error to 4% error)

18. (Almost) no false positives for larger networks (> 30 sources) Evaluation Results Comparison to 4 fact-finders from literature

19. Below 1% false negatives for larger networks (> 30 sources) Evaluation Results Comparison to 4 fact-finders from literature

20. Coming up: The Apollo FactFinder Apollo Architecture Apollo: Towards Factfinding in Participatory Sensing, H. Khac Le, J. Pasternack, H. Ahmadi, M. Gupta, Y. Sun, T. Abdelzaher, J. Han, D. Roth, B. Szymanski, and S. Adali, demo session at ISPN10, The 10th International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks, April, 2011, Chicago, IL, USA. Abdelzaher, Adali, Han, Huang, Roth, Szymanski Apollo: Improves fusion QoI from noisy human and sensor data. Demo in IPSN 2011 (in April) Collects data from cell-phones Interfaced to twitter Can use sensors and human text Analysis on several data sets: what really happened?

21. Apollo Datasets Track data from cell-phones in a controlled experiment 2 Million tweets from Egypt Unrest Tweets on Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Emergency

22. Immediate Extensions Non-independent sources Sources that have a common bias, sources where one influences another, etc. Collaboration opportunities with SCNARC and Trust Non-independent claims Claims that cannot be simultaneously true Claims that increase or decrease each other’s probability Mixture of reliable and unreliable sources More reliable sources can help calibrate correctness of less reliable sources

23. Road Ahead Develop a unifying QoI-assurance theory for fact-finding/fusion from hard and soft sources Sources Use different media: signals, text, images, … Feature differ authors: physical sensors, humans Capabilities Computes accurate best estimates of probabilities of correctness Computes accurate confidence bounds in results Enhances QoI/cost trade-offs in data fusion systems Integrates sensor and information network link analysis into a unified analytic framework for QoI assessment Accounts for data dependencies, constraints, context and prior knowledge Account for effect of social factors such as trust, influence, and homophily on opinion formation, propagation, and perception (in human sensing) Impact: Enhanced warfighter ability to assess information

24. Collaborations Fusion Task I1.1 QoI/cost analysis (unified theory for estimation/prediction and information network link analysis QoI Task I1.2 QoI Mining Task I3.1 (w/Jiawei Han) Consider new link analysis algorithms OICC Task C1.2 Community Modeling S2.2 Sister QoI Task C1.1 Decisions under Stress S3.1 (w/Dan Roth) Account for prior knowledge and constraints (w/Boleslaw Szymanski and Sibel Adali) Model humans in the loop (w/Ramesh Govindan) Improve communication resource efficiency (w/Aylin Yener) Increase OICC

25. Collaborations Collaborative – Multi-institution: Q2 (UIUC+IBM): Tarek Abdelzaher, Dong Wang, Hossein Ahmadi, Jeff Pasternack, Dan Roth, Omid Fetemieh, and Hieu Le, Charu Aggarwal, “On Bayesian Interpretation of Fact-finding in Information Networks,” submitted to Fusion 2011 Collaborative – Inter-center: Q2 (I+SC): H. Khac Le, J. Pasternack, H. Ahmadi, M. Gupta, Y. Sun, T. Abdelzaher, J. Han, D. Roth, B. Szymanski, S. Adali, “Apollo: Towards Factfinding in Participatory Sensing,” IPSN Demo, April 2011 Q2 (I+SC): Mani Srivastava, Tarek Abdelzaher, Boleslaw Szymanski, “Human-centric Sensing,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, special issue on Wireless Sensor Networks, expected in 2011 (invited). Invited Session on QoI at Fusion 2011 (co-chaired with Ramesh Govindan, CNARC)

26. Military Relevance Enhanced warfighter decision-making ability based on better quality assessment of fusion outputs A unified QoI assurance theory for fusion systems that utilize both sensors and information networks Offers a quantitative understanding of the benefits of exploiting information network links in data fusion Enhances result accuracy and provides confidence bounds in result correctness