1. Food Security and Biotechnology
Professor Paul PS Teng
Senior Fellow (Food Security)
S Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Centre for non-Traditional Security Studies
and
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning
National Institute of Education
5 April 2011

2. Evolution in Thinking about and acting on Food Security
Uni-dimensional to Multi-dimensional
Supply side influence to demand side influence
Rural to urban
Single sector to Multi sector interventions

3. (Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)
What is Food Security?
“Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
(Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)
Security for Whom?
Individual
Family Unit
(Households)
Communities
(Country)
Regions
Sufficiency
Safety
Economic Access
Physical Access
Nutrition 3

4. Security Conceptual Model
Capture
Fish
Natural
Ecosystems
Aquaculture
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
3. Access to Food
(Income)
Biofuels 2.
Access to Food
(Market Supply Chain)
Other Uses
1b.Availability
(Food Supply)
Production, Imports
Stockpiles
Demand for
Food
Household Food Security
Distribution
Processing/
Distribution Losses
Urban
Food Security
Trade
4. Utility
Safety/Quality/
Nutritive Value
1a. Availability
(Primary Production)
Crops/Animals
Science/
Technology
Inputs
Sunshine
4 – Dimensional Food
Security Conceptual Model
Labor
Water
Land
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization
Fragility of Agro-ecosystems
Climate Change Competition for Land
Changing Demographics
(e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)

5. Why is food a security issue?
DRIVERS
SYMPTOMS
CAUSES
Food Shortages
Globalisation
Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Food Price Increases
Hunger
Food
Insecurity
Loss of Life
Conflict
Civil Unrest
Food
Hoarding
Poverty
Economic Instability
Climate Change
Political Instability
Food Contamination
Social Instability 5

6. Food Access (Physical) Food Access (Economic)
Main Threats to Food Security
Food Availability
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
Food Access (Physical)
Access to markets
Infrastructure
Food Access (Economic)
Employment
Overseas Remittances
Foreign Direct Investment
Trade
Food Utilization
Health and nutrition
Sanitation/Hygiene
Storage/processing facilities
Clean water
Transitory Food Security
Weather disruptions and
pest outbreaks
Rising energy prices
Competition from energy sector
Policy changes e.g. trade
Lower holdings of cereal stocks
Diversion from staple to cash
crops
Conflict/Terrorist activities
Economic factors
Chronic Food Security
Demographic changes
Poverty
Underinvestment in
infrastructure/tech.
Climate change
Fragility of agro-ecosystems
Unfriendly policies towards
farmers
Declining no. of farmers
Globalisation
Four Dimensions of Food Security

7. Biotechnology links to Food Security
Food Availability
Production
Losses
Climate Change (CC)
Food Distribution
Food Utilization
Nutrition Quality (Biofortification)

8. TRENDS WHICH IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY
Mid to Long term
Demographics – numbers, shifts
Changes in demand for food –
Quantity and Qualitative
Investments in food entrepreneurship
Production and farmer-unfriendly policies
Climate and Natural Resource Base changes
Declining number of farmers
Immediate
Disruptions in supply
Input cost spiral
Alternative uses of biomass

9. World Population, 1961 to 2050 (Urban vs Rural)
At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities – 2008 was turning point
By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries)
800 million people involved in urban agriculture and contribute to feeding urban residents; 200 million produce for the market; 150 million are full-time employees
Low-income urban dwellers spend between 40%-60% of their income on food per year
9 Billion by 2050 9

10. Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture (UPA) Building more Resilient Cities
Urban agriculture: the growing of plants and the raising of animals within and around cities.
Integrated into the urban economic and ecological system; urban agriculture is embedded in -and interacting with- the urban ecosystem.
Provides complementary strategy to reduce urban poverty and food insecurity
Enhances urban environmental management
Contributes to local economic development, poverty alleviation and social inclusion of the urban poor, particularly women
Saves energy (e.g. lower transport and storage costs)
Responds to market demand
Building more Resilient Cities
through UPA 10

11. Decreasing number of farmers
Canada:
In 1946, about 1.2 million people worked on a farm as a main job.
Thirty years later, that number had dropped to a little under half a million. -- Geoff Bowlby, Labour Statistics Division
U.S.A.: The farming population peaked in It started declining in the late 1930’s and accelerated in the 1950’s. Today, less than 1% claim farming as an occupation (and about 2% actually live on farms). There are only about 960,000 persons claiming farming as their principal occupation and a similar number of farmers claiming some other principal occupation. The number of farms in the U.S. stands at about two million.

12. Population 65 and Older (%)
Farmers are growing older!
Farmers 65 and Older (%)
Ave. Age of Farmers
No. of Farmers
Population 65 and Older (%)
(millions)
1970
1998
U.S. 17 35 51 57
1.2 1 10 13
Canada 12 19 49
0.3 8
Japan 14 43 47
60c 7
2.5 16
Korea 5 36
50c
14.4
4.9 3 6
Source: Population Reference Bureau -- Montague Yudelman & Laura J.M. Kealy. 2000

13. Stress Factors on the natural resource base
Soil
Degradation (Erosion, Salinization, etc.)
Water
Pollution by industrial and agricultural effluents
Air
Pollution by natural and anthropogenic sources
Global Climate Change (GCC)
Temperature (global warming)
Light (global dimming) 13

14. Dimension I: Availability Dimension II: Access

15. AFP NEWS BRIEFS LIST
 MONDAY, JANUARY 26, :40 FAO SAYS WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION MUST DOUBLE BY DANIEL SILVA
Global food production, already under strain from the credit crunch, must double in the next four decades to head off mass hunger, the head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said on Monday.
Speaking at the start of a two-day international conference in Madrid, FAO director general Jacques Diouf said the global economic crisis was already undermining efforts to tackle food insecurity and the need would become more pressing in the years ahead.
"We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in We will need to double global food production by 2050," Diouf said.“
70% by 2050

16. Increasing Food Availability (Dimension I, II)
Productivity (Increase yield/unit area; Decrease losses)
Improved conventional seeds
Improved biotech seeds
Improve management of inputs
Improved management of processes
Total Production Capacity (Increase Total cropping area)
Imports (Increased Distribution)
Efficiency of distribution (diagnostics, LLP management)

17. Irrigated Rice: Major yield loss factors
HOW DOES CC CHANGE THE EFFECT OF THESE FACTORS
ON CROP YIELD AND LOSS?
Subtropics
Cold
Drought
K deficiency
P deficiency
N deficiency
Organic matter deficiency
Submergence
Lodging
Sheath blight
Blast
Humid Tropics
Stemborer
Drought
Submergence
Rice bugs
BLB
BPH
Bacterial blight
Lodging
Sulfur deficiency
Zinc deficiency
Sub-humid tropics
Weeds
Stemborer
Bacterial leaf blight
Drought
Blast
Gall midge
Army worm
Rodents
Zinc deficiency
Leaffolder

18. Yield losses in rice cultivation
Stresses Yield loss (as % of production)
________________________________
Pest infestation 6.8
Problem soils 6.4
Water stresses 9.9
Average loss 23.1

19. New Farming land? NTS Insight October 2010
Can Asia Learn from Brazil’s Agricultural Success?
Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world’s major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil’s success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of self-sufficiency in the region.
By Margarita Escaler and Paul Teng.
                                                                                                       Coffee trees cultivated under irrigation in Brazil's cerrado farms.
Credit: Anderson Galvao

20. References
< Working Paper.
Food (In)Security in Urban Populations By Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler   The food crisis at the end of the last decade and the resulting food riots that occurred in cities all over the world exposed the vulnerability and fragility of the current global food system and highlighted the increasing problem of urban food security. Urban households were among the hardest hit by the food and economic crises as they saw their purchasing power decline drastically. Though aggregate world food availability was relatively good during this period, access to that food by the urban poor had been severely compromised. This working paper aims to analyse the factors that influence urban food security and argues the case for why an urban focus will increasingly matter in the international discourse on food security. A truly “systems approach” will be needed to study and deal with the many inter-related factors and players in food security. Too often have professional communities maintained disciplinary barriers when addressing such complex problems.
Commentary. Facing Food Shortages: Urban Food Security in An Age of Constraints Abstract: Seventy per cent of the world’s population are expected to live in urban areas by Food production to feed this larger, more urban and richer population will have to be done in the face of changing consumption patterns, the impact of climate change and the growing scarcity of land and water. It is time that urban centres take charge to usher in a new era of “urban green revolution”.

21. Decline in potentially good agricultural land (East Asia);
Climate change impacts on agriculture in APEC economies (Regional/sub-regional)
Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production (South and east Australia; southeast Asia); reduced yields of rain-fed wheat and rice (southeast Asia); Northward shift of agric. zones (China); 40% projected decline in irrigated rice in central and southern Japan;
Reduced grain quality (Australia); up to 30% grain yield reduction by 2080 (Mexico); 73-78% reduction in coffee production by 2050 in Veracruz (Mexico);
Decline in potentially good agricultural land (East Asia);
Loss of farm land due to sea level rise (Southeast and East Asia); >1 million people to lose land in Mekong delta
Source: IPCC 2007

22. CC :MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Conceptual framework: CC and Agriculture/Food Security
Mitigating causes of climate change: Reducing sources of
CO2
CH4
Others
Mitigating symptoms and effects on agricultural production:
Water (Excess, Deficit, Irregularity) – Drought, Submergence
Temperature – Ambient, Water, Soil
Dimming – Solar radiation
Rising Ocean levels
Mitigating effects on food security
Production and Production Process(es)
Supply of unprocessed agricultural produce for food (Diversion to biofuel)
Distribution

23. Mitigating causes of climate change -- Methane
Reducing methane emissions to atmosphere
Rice: c 13%
Changing rice plant architecture and anatomy through conventional breeding and biotechnology
Changing farming system from paddy rice to dryland rice
Livestock: c 17%
Changing diet composition of rumen livestock
Changing efficiency and nature of digestive process through breeding with biotechnology tools
What biotechnologies?
What enablers?

24. Biotechnology & Climate Change Mitigation
Reduced fuel consumption on farms through
Reduced need to spray crops – Fuel savings in 2007 through BT led to a reduction of 1.1 million tons of CO2
Reduced tillage or no-tillage – leads to reduced CO2 emissions of 89 or 36 kg/ha respectively
Enhanced carbon sequestration
More carbon is sequestered through no tillage
Reduced fertilizer use and N2O emissions
Nitrogen use efficiency in crops
Livestock and manure management
Biofuel crop development
Third generation biofuel development

25. Biotechnology & Climate Change Adaptation
Trait improvement:
heat and drought tolerance (Drought-tolerant maize)
waterlogging tolerance
frost, pest and disease resistance
water-use efficiency (e.g. Water-efficient Maize for Africa)
nutrient-use efficiency
early vigor
reduced dependence on low temperatures to trigger flowering or seed germination
Reducing water loss from agriculture: Less ploughing means trapping moisture

26. Key Messages - I
Adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture are of great concern. Food security will remain elusive in several countries by 2050, if suitable policies and measures for adaptation to climate change are not in place.
Agricultural adaptations to climate change are crucial to achieve not only food security but also water security, and even energy security, thereby social security & sustainability.
Agriculture and forestry sectors contribute around 30% of global GHG emissions; Their mitigation potential is comparable to industry and energy supply, especially in developing countries, and more than that in transport and waste sectors.
Agriculture offers many low-cost GHG mitigation opportunities. Income from carbon offsets from agriculture, if properly recognized in the post-2012 climate regime, can nearly meet adaptation costs.

27. Food Security: geographic connectivity
Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels -- Distribution
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Global Food Supply Chain

28. Crop
Item
2006/07
2009/10
Corn (Maize)
Global/Asia Production, Million M T
698.0
810.9/190.1
Global Exports, Million M T
(% of global production)
84.4
(12%)
88.8
(11%)
Asian Imports, Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
43.3
(51%)
36.2
(41%)
Rice (Milled)
417.0
441.0/383.4
29.0
(7%)
30.1
7.4
(25%)
7.9
(26%)
Wheat
Global Production/Asia, Million M T
594.0
680.0/ 242.1
110.0
(19%)
134.0
(19.8%)
28.8
35.0
Soybean (For Meal)
Global Production, Million M T
153.8
163.8
54.6
(35%)
55.3
(34%)
12.8
(24%)
13.9

29. How secure is the world food system??
Five companies control 90% of the global trade in grain
Three companies control 85% of the global tea market
Five companies control 80% of the global trade in bananas
Almost all commercial bananas in the world today are just one variety
-- Cavendish
> 90% of milk in the U.S.A. comes from 1 breed of cattle
> 90% of eggs from 1 breed of layer-hen
1 company owns >90% of the world’s patents filed on genetically
modified seed

30. Dimension III: Economic Access

31. Trends in World Hunger
Trends in World Hunger
Graph represents number of hungry people in the world over time,
The unit of measure is millions of people
Trend towards decreasing hunger through
Followed by Increasing trend to with a dramatic increase in slope to 2008 and on to the projection for 2009
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009). Value for 2009 is a projection.

32. Where do the Hungry Live ?
1.02 billion hungry in the world
642 million live in Asia and the Pacific
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009)..

33. Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. The end of Poverty. Penguin33

34. Food Price Crisis
Percentage change,
Graph depicts the percentage change in price of major staple foods from
Rice – which is the tallest bar (second bar from the right) increased in price more than 25 percent,
Wheat - the second tallest bar (on the far right) increased nearly 20 percent
Beans / Lentils – the bar on the far left increased 15 percent
These are the staples of Asia. These increases in price affected consumers, particularly those struggling to earn sufficient income to feed their families.
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009).

35. Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket
What governments fear!
Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket
14 April, 2008
(CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday.
"This is the world's big story," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute.
"The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic this weekend," he said on CNN's "American Morning," in a reference to top economic officials who gathered in Washington. "There are riots all over the world in the poor countries ... and, of course, our own poor are feeling it in the United States.“
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has said the surging costs could mean "seven lost years" in the fight against worldwide poverty.

36. Dimension IV: Utilization (Nutritive Value, Quality, Safety)

37. World Food Programme: Basic Terms and Definitions
UNDERNOURISHMENT: describes the status of persons, whose food intake regularly provides less than their minimum energy requirements (MDG indicator of Hunger)
UNDERWEIGHT: Weight for Age, measured in children under 5 years of age. (MDG indicator of Hunger)
Moderate = 2 std deviations below the reference standard;
Severe = 3 std deviations below the reference standard;
WASTING: Weight for Height. Measure of acute malnutrition.
STUNTING: Height for Age. Measure of chronic malnutrition
FOOD SECURITY: exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
UNDERNOURISHMENT: describes the status of persons, whose food intake regularly provides less than their minimum energy requirements (MDG indicator of Hunger)
UNDERWEIGHT: Weight for Age, measured in children under 5 years of age. (MDG indicator of Hunger)
Moderate = 2 std deviations below the reference standard;
Severe = 3 std deviations below the reference standard;
WASTING: Weight for Height. Measure of acute malnutrition.
STUNTING: Height for Age. Measure of chronic malnutrition

38. Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC), FAO)
Map of Asia – depicting the Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (yellow)
List is maintained by FAO
Courtesy: Michael Sheinkman, WFP, Thailand

39. Prevalence of Undernourished (MDG indicator)

40. Food Security Atlas – SE Asia
WFP VAM strives to identify the populations in need of food assistance, and how WFP support should tailor support to make a difference in peoples lives and their livelihoods.
Atlases have been produced for in India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Cambodia.
Examples of use of Atlas: Indonesia
In 2002, WFP worked with National Food Security Council and build the capacity of all provincial food security agencies to undertake food security analysis and mapping. More than 90 provincial staff of the government were given training during When the Atlas was released in August 2005, the publication highlighted 100 priority districts in the country across several provinces that required immediate attention for eradication of food insecurity. Based on the findings and recommendation of the book, the Ministry of Agriculture allocated more than US$ 32 million to those 100 districts in December 2005 to initiate immediate projects on community based food and seed banks, agricultural extension for sustainable food and nutrition etc. Most ofthe provinces have carried forward this analysis further to identify food insecure sub-districts and even villages, by allocating provincial budgets for undertaking such activities. The government now plans to update the Atlas in early This Atlas, popularly known as FIA, is now fully institutionalized within government’s annual work plans and budgetary allocations.
Action:
Safety Nets and Cash
Food Aid from surplus countries
Biofortified crops?

41. Security Conceptual Model
Capture
Fish
Natural
Ecosystems
Aquaculture
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
3. Access to Food
(Income)
Biofuels 2.
Access to Food
(Market Supply Chain)
Other Uses
1b.Availability
(Food Supply)
Production, Imports
Stockpiles
Demand for
Food
Household Food Security
Distribution
Processing/
Distribution Losses
Urban
Food Security
Trade
4. Utility
Safety/Quality/
Nutritive Value
1a. Availability
(Primary Production)
Crops/Animals
Science/
Technology
Inputs
Sunshine
4 – Dimensional Food
Security Conceptual Model
Labor
Water
Land
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization
Fragility of Agro-ecosystems
Climate Change Competition for Land
Changing Demographics
(e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)

42.                                                   
Date: 10 – 12 August 2011 Venue: Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel Singapore.
The International Conference on Asia Food Security (ICAFS), seeks to bring together stakeholders from government, non-governmental organisations, the business community, academic institutions and other interested parties to explore the prevailing challenges and opportunities for promoting long-term food security in Asia.  ICAFS has secured the presence of leading experts and practitioners in the food security field to discuss issues ranging from urban-rural food interdependencies and small-scale agricultural progress to cutting-edge agro-technologies and advancements in food processing, distribution and market assessment. This wide-ranging scope ensures that ICAFS will provide valuable information across a comprehensive set of food security topics.
Much more information on ICAFS can be accessed through the webpage on the International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) ‘Feeding Asia in the 21st Century: Building Urban-Rural Alliances’, including details on the conference schedule, confirmed speakers and registration procedure.
ICAFS is also welcoming paper submissions across a broad list of food security topics, which is likewise explained in greater detail here.  Please do not hesitate to contact the conference convenors (contact information listed in the webpage) if you have any questions relating to ICAFS.
The International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) (
About the Centre: