1. iKnow interconnecting Knowledge (EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1) Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk iKnow Project Director

2. Researching Wild Cards Researching Wild Cards Researching Weak Signals Nature-related Unintentional results of human actions Intended results of human actions Earthquake Tsunami … Accident Serendipity … Terrorism STI Breakthrough … 3 broader types of Wild Cards 8 broader types of Weak Signals iKnow assumes that “anything” could be a weak signal… It all depends on the observer’s interpretation: 1. Current Strengths & Weaknesses 2. Current Drivers, Trends & Challenges 3. Current Strategies & Policies 4. Emerging Issues 5. Future Drivers, Scenarios, Threats & Opportunities 6. Shared Visions, Megatrends & Grand Challenges 7. Hidden Issues (Secrets & Unknowns) 8. Past Wild Cards Popper (2011)

4. McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World South North

5. Popper (2011)

6. Some examples of Wild Cards Some examples of Wild Cards Some examples of Weak Signals past wild cards can be weak signals of future events… including new wild cards… weak signals can hint about potential wild cards…

7. iKnow interconnecting Knowledge (EFP Workshop 26.10.11 – Part 2) Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk iKnow Project Director

8. New Weak Signals Concept (Popper, 2011) Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “ seeds of change ”, providing advance intelligence or “ hints ” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events. Influenced by – Mental frameworks – Subjective interpretations – Limited information – Time/Context i3 uncertain issues – Interpretation – Importance – Implications Pseudo-evidence-based – Unclear observables Creativity-based – Game changing events

9. MIOIR FFRCZ_punktTC ASICTAFRTCN iKnow is 50% Research iKnow is 50% Technology Development MIOIR Cyber FoxMindcom Research Agenda 1.To develop wild cards (WI) research frameworks 2.To develop weak signals (WE) research frameworks 3.To develop strategies to scan and assess WIWE 4.To explore WIWE shaping/shaking ERA & STI policy 5.To develop ERA toolkit & practical guide to WIWE Research Agenda 1.To develop wild cards (WI) research frameworks 2.To develop weak signals (WE) research frameworks 3.To develop strategies to scan and assess WIWE 4.To explore WIWE shaping/shaking ERA & STI policy 5.To develop ERA toolkit & practical guide to WIWE Technology Development Agenda 1.To build tools capable of mapping WIWE 2.To build tools capable of assessing WIWE 3.To build tools capable of interconnecting WIWE 4.To build tools capable of interconnecting knowledge 5.To build tools capable of interconnecting actors Technology Development Agenda 1.To build tools capable of mapping WIWE 2.To build tools capable of assessing WIWE 3.To build tools capable of interconnecting WIWE 4.To build tools capable of interconnecting knowledge 5.To build tools capable of interconnecting actors

10. iKnow has positioned Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE) studies as a core element in foresight and horizon scanning (FHS) activities iKnow has positioned Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE) studies as a core element in foresight and horizon scanning (FHS) activities

11. Horizon Scanning Strategy 1 ILTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 1 ILTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 2 OLTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 2 OLTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 4 OLBU Horizon Scanning Strategy 4 OLBU Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 ILBU Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 ILBU iKnow developed 4 WIWE scanning strategies iKnow developed 4 WIWE scanning strategies Top-Down Inward-Looking Outward-Looking Bottom-Up Popper (2011)

13. Nomination 1.source 2.theme 3.sub-theme 4.references 5.short name / headline 6.abstract Description 1.manifestation 2.potential implications 3.importance Analysis 1.filters 2.main drivers 3.risks & opportunities 4.stakeholders’ actions Interconnection 1.Grand Challenges 2.thematic relevance 3.ERA relevance 4.relevant research-friendly strategies 5.RTD & STI policy relevance Nomination 1.source 2.theme 3.sub-theme 4.references 5.short name / headline 6.Abstract 7.likelihood Description 1.typology 2.importance Analysis 1.early indicators 2.main drivers 3.risks & opportunities 4.stakeholders’ actions Interconnection 1.Grand Challenges 2.thematic relevance 3.ERA relevance 4.relevant research-friendly strategies 5.RTD & STI policy relevance Mapping Weak Signals Mapping Wild Cards

14. Wild Cards DelphiWeak Signals Delphi 120 selected WIWE assessed by 700+ participants 120 selected WIWE assessed by 700+ participants

15. Wild Cards Delphi Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Originality Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU Potential impacts on (in Your Country & the EU) 1- Physical infrastructure 2 - Virtual infrastructure 3 - Social welfare 4 - Economy 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems 8 - STI systems Preparedness ERA relevance Policy advice Current signals indicating WI plausibility Future signals indicating WI plausibility Analysis & Submission panels 60 Wild Cards So far we have… ~4000 assessments 60 Wild Cards So far we have… ~4000 assessments

16. Weak Signals Delphi 60 Weak Signals So far we have… 2500+ assessments 60 Weak Signals So far we have… 2500+ assessments Wild Cards headline navigation panel Comments & full preview Description & Ambiguity Main interpretation STI Importance in Your Country & EU Impact areas 1- Physical infrastructure 2 - Virtual infrastructure 3 - Social welfare 4 - Economy 5 - Security 6 - Policy & governance 7 - Environment & ecosystems 8 - STI systems ERA relevance Policy advice Potential wild card Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking Analysis & Submission panels Comment on interpretation

17. Key facts and figures 60 900+ ISSUES. 4000+ assessments to 60 Wild Cards 4000+ assessments to 60 Wild Cards 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals 2500+ assessments to 60 Weak Signals Delphi results on September 2011

18. 50% match 50% match CAPUniversities close as research does not meet the needs of industry NUCSevere accident of a nuclear power plant SSHSoft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand AGRSilent Seas CAPEuropean Commission scrap research support projects NUCA considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources SSHCyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists" AGRA Killer Water Filter ICTSecure and safe internet that is easy to use ENVRisk assessment "saves" millions of lives but… Wild Cards ICTInformation crisis caused by personalized information delivery ENEBreakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets ICTSecure and safe internet that is easy to use ENEGas from Trash SSHCyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists" CAPUniversities close as research does not meet the needs of industry ICTNano-lab inside your body HEAEnd of Ageing CAPEuropean Commission scrap research support projects SSHSoft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand Wild Cards for UK

19. 30% match 30% match CAPUniversities close as research does not meet the needs of industry CAPEuropean Commission scrap research support projects NUCSevere accident of a nuclear power plant NUCA considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources AGRSilent Seas SPASpace war SPARevolutionary space propulsion technology SSHSoft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand SSHCyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists" HEAEnd of Ageing ENEBreakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets CAPUniversities close as research does not meet the needs of industry ICTInformation crisis caused by personalized information delivery ICTNano-lab inside your body CAPScientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished CAPEuropean Commission scrap research support projects ENEGas from Trash SSHAutomatic learning through neuro-data transfer ICTSecure and safe internet that is easy to use HEAEnd of Ageing Wild Cards for STI Wild Cards for STI Wild Cards for UK STI Wild Cards for UK STI

20. Top 10 Wild Cards for UK STI Top 10 Wild Cards for UK STI Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery Nano-lab inside your body Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished European Commission scrap research support projects Gas from Trash Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer Secure and safe internet that is easy to use End of Ageing

21. Vi-I Sec Eco Pol STI SoW Env Ph-I STI Env SoW Eco Vi-I Sec STI Vi-I Eco Env Eco STI Pol STI Pol SoW STI Vi-I STI Pol Sec STI Eco Sec Popper (2011)

22. CAPLack of interest in science by young scholars AGREmergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change CAPAdministration rather than results a priority SECNo strict global rules on nuclear security NUCDevelopment of new materials ENVGrowing frequency of floods in Europe and the world SPAPrivatisation of space flights NANImplantable electronics leaving no trace SSHConcerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade" NUCSmall-scale nuclear power plant operating CAPLack of interest in science by young scholars CAPAdministration rather than results a priority SECNo strict global rules on nuclear security ICTNext generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform ENVGrowing frequency of floods in Europe and the world ICTFast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGRBees be no more, less food than before ENVGrowing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis ENVEmergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles HEAIncreasing Self-Medication Weak Signals Top 10 Weak Signals for UK Top 10 Weak Signals for UK 40% match 40% match

23. CAPLack of interest in science by young scholars SPAOptical lifting demonstrated for the first time CAPAdministration rather than results a priority SSHGrowing interest in wild cards and weak signals research CAPGrowing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects SPAIdeas for radically new ways to reach Space NANHerbs (enhanced by Nanotechnology) used to fight cancer SPAPrivatisation of space flights NANImplantable electronics leaving no trace NUCDevelopment of new materials HEANeuro-Enhancement ICTFast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications SSHGrowing interest in wild cards and weak signals research CAPLack of interest in science by young scholars CAPAdministration rather than results a priority CAPGrowing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects HEAIncreasing Self-Medication ICTMigration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment ICTNext generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform ENVGrowing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Weak Signals for STI Weak Signals for STI Top 10 Weak Signals for UK STI Top 10 Weak Signals for UK STI 40% match 40% match

24. Neuro-Enhancement Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research Lack of interest in science by young scholars Administration rather than results a priority Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects Increasing Self- Medication Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment Next generation peer- to-peer content delivery platform Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world Top 10 Weak Signals for UK STI Top 10 Weak Signals for UK STI

26. Vi-I STI Sec STI SoW Pol Eco STI Pol Eco Pol Eco STI Pol STI Vi-I STI SoW Eco SoW Env Ph-I Popper (2011)

27. iKnow Project & Tools (R + TD Agenda) iOracle (Mapping) iOracle (Mapping) iLibrary (interconnecting, sharing and managing knowledge) iLibrary (interconnecting, sharing and managing knowledge) iCommunity (Networking) iCommunity (Networking) iScan (Advanced WI-WE monitoring) iScan (Advanced WI-WE monitoring) iBank (Knowledge generation and WI-WE mapping) iBank (Knowledge generation and WI-WE mapping) iDelphi (Participatory WI-WE assessment) iDelphi (Participatory WI-WE assessment) iNews (Dissemination) iNews (Dissemination)