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PRESENTATION ON PHARMACEUTICALS SBI CAPITAL MARKETS LTD. ANALYST : FALGUN JOSHIPURA 19 March, 2003 Tel.: 022-22189166 Extn:

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Presentation on theme: "PRESENTATION ON PHARMACEUTICALS SBI CAPITAL MARKETS LTD. ANALYST : FALGUN JOSHIPURA 19 March, 2003 Tel.: 022-22189166 Extn:"— Presentation transcript:

1 PRESENTATION ON PHARMACEUTICALS SBI CAPITAL MARKETS LTD. ANALYST : FALGUN JOSHIPURA 19 March, 2003 falgun.joshipura@sbicaps.com Tel.: 022-22189166 Extn: 464

2 IS PHARMA UNDERVALUED ?

3 OUR STOCK PICKS AT CURRENT LEVELS RANBAXY (BUY) (GOOD TO TRADE) GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA (BUY AND HOLD) DR. REDDY’S (OUTPERFORM) (HIGH RISK) (GOOD TO TRADE) WOCKHARDT (BUY) (VALUE PICK) SUN PHARMA (BUY) (LONGER TERM BET)

4 A QUICK VALUATION COMPARISON Source: Bloomberg; All figures are 12mth trailing. 19 March, 2003

5 PFIZER LTD. FACTS  LEGAL MERGER STALLED ON APPEAL MADE BY MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS  INTEGRATION BENEFITS -- RS 100 MN  DISCONTINUATION OF VACCINE. COREX CROSSES RS 1000 MN IN FY02.  PARENT’S BLOCKBUSTER-- ZOLOFT LAUNCHED IN FY02 UNDER NAME OF DAXID.  BENADRYL GROWING @ 25% YOY. SALES NEAR TO RS 500 MN.  TOP 10 BRANDS CONTRIBUTED 66% OF SALES AND GREW @ 9-10% IN FYO2.

6 PFIZER LTD.

7 VALUATION COMMENTS :GOOD PICK FOR FY04 ONWARDS RISK :

8 GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA LTD. FACTS  RATIONALIZATION PROCESS TO CONTINUE WITH SALE OF WORLI PROPERTY.  BOTTOM-LINE DRIVEN. FOCUS ON CHOSEN 30 BRANDS. OLD BRANDS WILL SUBSIDIZE COST OF PROMOTION OF NEW BRANDS.  POST 2005, LOOKING FOR 2-3 MOLECULES TO GIVE RS 1000 MN EACH IN 2-3 YEARS, BASED ON EXPERIENCE IN CHINA.  2-3 NEW MOLECULES PER YEAR TO BE LAUNCHED. SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH ONLY IF RS 100-200 MN SALES IN 2-3 YEARS OF LAUNCH.

9 GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA LTD.

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11 SALES CAGR THROUGH FY13 IS 8.93%. PAT CAGR IS 11.36% VALUATION COMMENTS :BUY AND HOLD RISK : DCF

12 NOVARTIS INDIA LTD  Q3, FY03 PAT DOWN 30.4% YOY. 9 MONTH PAT UP 31.6%.  GENERIC COMPETITION IN Q3, FY03 -- MARGINS UNDER PRESSURE  HIGHER PROMOTIONAL EXPENSES AND ONE-TIME ERP COST IN Q3, FY03.  RS 559 MN WORTH FG IMPORTED IN FY02.  RS 198 MN FROM GOREGAON PROPERTY IN FY03. RS 384 MN OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. FACTS

13 NOVARTIS INDIA LTD

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15 CAGR SALES 9.74%; PAT 11.19% (FY03—FY14) DCF

16 NOVARTIS INDIA LTD VALUATION COMMENTS :MARKET PERFORMER RISK :

17 AVENTIS PHARMA INDIA LTD FACTS  MARGINS IN FY02 A DISSAPOINTMENT. HIGHER RAW MATERIAL COST LOWERED MARGINS.  59% OF RAW MATERIAL IS IMPORTED. THIS SHALL BENEFIT THE COMPANY AS CD LOWERED TO 25% FROM 30%.  STRATEGIC PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO DO WELL. THEY NOW ACCOUNT FOR 27% OF DOMESTIC SALES AND ARE GROWING AT 32% YOY.  A SUSTAINED TURNAROUND IN MARGINS AIDED BY STARATEGIC PRODUCTS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE STOCK IN FY03-FY04.

18 AVENTIS PHARMA INDIA LTD

19 CAGR SALES THROUGH FY14 IS 8.25% AND THAT FOR PAT IS 12.8% Market Uninterested by the price obtained by using DCF DCF

20 AVENTIS PHARMA INDIA LTD VALUATION COMMENTS :ACCUMULATE ON INDICATION OF MARGIN IMPROVEMENT RISK :

21 RANBAXY LABORATORIES LTD FACTS  LOW MARKET SHARE IN AUGMENTIN A CONCERN. OUR ASSUMPTION IS OF 10% MARKETSHARE IN FY03. IF THE COMPANY ATTAINS 5% MARKET-SHARE FOR FY03, EPS WILL FALL BY 3.44%.  SIMILAR CONCERNS COULD ARISE IN SORTRET (ISOTRETINOIN). OUR ASSUMPTION IS OF 35% MARKET SHARE IN FY03. AT 20% MARKETSHARE, FY03 EPS WILL DECREASE BY 2.88% AND AT 10% MARKETSHARE (UNLIKELY INCIDENT) BY 4.8%. â GANCICLOVIR EXCLUSIVITY EXPECTED IN Q3, FY03. SALES IN FY03 ESTIMATED BY US AT $ 18.75 mn. â AUGMENTIN - CAUTIOUS APPROACH â CEFUROXIME AXETIL - APOTEX DELAY

22 RANBAXY LABORATORIES LTD Consolidated figures

23 RANBAXY LABORATORIES LTD VALUATION COMMENTS :BUY (GOOD FOR TRADING) RISK :

24 DR. REDDY’S LABORATORIES LTD FACTS  FILE PARA IV ANDA FOR ALL DOSAGE STRENTGHS OF OLANZAPINE. ELI LILLY HAS SUED IN A DISTRICT COURT. OLANZAPINE SALES WERE $ 2.5 bn IN 2001. PATENT EXPIRY IS 2011. ONLY ONE PATENT IS CHALLENGED.  15-YEAR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND MARKETING TIE-UP WITH LEINER HEALTH PRODUCTS INC.  PARA IV FOR SERTRALINE (PFIZER’S ZOLOFT; $2.4 bn IN 2002) FOR 25, 50, AND 100 mg DOSAGE FORMS. FILED AGAINST 4 OF THE FIVE PATENT. PFIZER HAS NOT SUED IN THE 45 DAYS.  AMLODIPINE MALEATE

25 DR. REDDY’S LABORATORIES LTD  THREE MORE 505(b)(2) FILINGS ANTICIPATED.

26 DR. REDDY’S LABORATORIES LTD Consolidated figures

27 DR. REDDY’S LABORATORIES LTD RISK : VALUATION COMMENTS :OUTPERFORM (GOOD FOR TRADING)

28 SUN PHARMACEUTICAL IND. LTD. FACTS  IMPROVED MARGINS ON EXITING THE LOW MARGIN CEPHALOSPORIN BUSINESS. Q3, FY03 PAT IMPROVED BY 20% TO RS 558.5 mn.  IN ALL 9 DMFs FILED. APPROVALS OBTAINED FOR PENTOXYFILENE AND METROPOLAL TARTARATE. 6 DMFs TO BE FILED FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS. BULK WILL BE SUPPLIED EVEN TO OTHER PLAYERS IN USA (NOT ONLY CARACO)  3-4 NEW PRODUCTS PER DIVISION FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS.  OUR SALES EXTIMATE FOR CARACO FO FY03 IS $ 44.59 mn. ESTIMATED CASH EPS IS $ 0.21/SHARE. THE COMPANY SHOULD MAKE A CASH PROFIT OF $ 3.63 MN IN FY03.

29 SUN PHARMACEUTICAL IND. LTD. DOMESTIC MARKET CONTRIBUTED TO 82.7% OF TURNOVER IN Q3, FY03.

30 SUN PHARMACEUTICAL IND. LTD. LEUPROLIDE IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

31 SUN PHARMACEUTICAL IND. LTD. VALUATION COMMENTS :BUY (LONGER TERM BET) RISK :

32 CIPLA LTD. FACTS  LOSS OF MARGINS AND DELAY IN ASTHMA INHALER EXPORTS HAVE LEAD TO STOCK TRADING NEAR 52 WEEK LOW.  STRATEGY OF LAUNCHING MANY NEW BRANDS NOT SUSTAINABLE IN THE LONG RUN.  STRATEGY FOR BULK EXPORTS TO PARA IV AND EXPORT OF INHALERS ARE THE CATALYSTS AND PILLARS OF CIPLA’S STRATEGY; IMPACTING THE RATING OF THE STOCK.

33 CIPLA LTD.

34 VALUATION COMMENTS : HOLD/ACCUMULATE RISK :

35 WOCKHARDT LTD. FACTS  OWN FACILITIES IN BIOTECH TO AID MARGINS  HUMAN INSULIN LAUNCH IN 2Q,FY03.  TWO OF THE SUPERGENRICS TO BE LAUNCHED IN REGULATED MARKETS IN 3Q OR 4Q, FY03 ON OBTAINING NECESSARY APPROVAL.  BIOTECH PRODUCTS LAUNCHED IN LESS REGULATED MARKETS. LAUNCH IN REGULATED MARKETS IN EARLY 2005.  EXITING OF PLAYERS FROM HEP-B IN DOMESTIC MARKET TO WORK WELL FOR WOCKHARDT.

36 WOCKHARDT LTD. Consolidated figures

37 WOCKHARDT LTD. VALUATION COMMENTS : BUY / UNDERVALUED RISK : IN MEDIUM TERM

38 Disclaimer T his document has been prepared by SBI Capital Markets Ltd. (SBICAP), and is based upon information available to the public and sources, we believe, to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. SBICAP may solicit investment banking business from entities referred to in this document. SBICAP and others associated with it may have positions in, and effect transactions in securities prior to publication of this document. This document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The opinions expressed in this document are solely those of SBICAP and are as of this date. These opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither this document nor any copy hereof may be taken or transmitted outside India. The Analyst & his dependants do not hold any shares of the pharmaceutical companies covered in this presentation. SBI Capital Markets does not hold any shares of the pharmaceutical companies covered in this presentation.

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