1. Climate Change Water stress, floods, ...
Walter Mendoza
mumbai
xavier’s
july 02, 2011

2. Key issues
350 ppm
2°C

3. Disaster? Or Catastrophe?

4. Tipping elements Processes, particularly sensitive to climate change
Greenland
ice sheet
Arctic sea ice melting
Methane outgasing
Arctic ozone
depletion
Deep water
formation
Himalaya
snow cover
Indian monsoon
Sahara
El Niño
Southern Oscillation
Amazon vegetation
Marine
carbon cycle
Graph shows Hadley Centre model prediction for areas with future cyclone generation (red/orange) in global warming scenario, compared to actual track of Catarina.
Point out that observed trend in hurricane activity is still under debate.
Globale Erwärmung  A) mehr Verdunstung  Trockenheit,
B)mehr Wasserdampf  1) mehr Wasser kann fallen, 2) mehr latente Wärme
Abschwächung des meridionalen Temp-gefälles  weniger Westwindwetterlagen
Verschiebung von typischen Wetterlagen  mehr Extreme an einem Ort
West Antarctic
ice sheet
Antarctic ozone hole

5. Climate change and water
Superimposed on the existing crisis
Surface air temperature in India is going up at the rate of 0.4 degrees Centigrade
Rainfall patterns changing: more extreme rainy days; less number of rainy days; decline in summer rainfall
Total runoff in most rivers will increase, cause more flooding; runoff will be less in lean season

6. Climate change and water
Glaciers melting at an accelerated rate, may cause increased flooding in Himalayan rivers and subsequent
Increase in flash floods
Glacier-fed rivers may eventually run dry

7. Climate change and water
Rising sea levels and coastal erosion will gobble up land
Coastal freshwater aquifers turning saline
Large scale displacement
Increased extreme disasters (drought, floods, cyclones, etc)

8. Health impact
As temperatures soar, humidity increases, as water becomes scarce, disasters such as floods increase,
so will
Diarrhoea, cholera, malaria and other vector borne disease
Increased drought, leading to
Poor water quality, dehydration, chronic low water consumption, poor sanitation and hygiene

9. Social impact Poor impacted the most, sustained poverty
Increased inequity
Affect on livelihood
Social unrest, increased conflicts

11. Over the last 25 years, Gangotri glacier has retreated more than 850 meters

13. Agriculture
Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.
The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

14. Coastal Zones
Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period
Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

16. Coastal Zones
Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period
Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

19. Key Vulnerable River Basins
Acute physical water scarce conditions
Constant water scarcities and shortage
Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions
Rare water shortages

20. Health
Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone
The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.
Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s
Endemic regions of malaria

21. Responses
NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
State Action Plans

22. National Water Mission
Studies on Management of Water Resources
Management & regulation of Groundwater resources
Mandating water-harvesting and artificial recharge
Enhancing recharge of deep zones of aquifers
Mandatory water assessments and audits for industrial waste disposal
Regulation of power tariffs for irrigation

23. Responses
NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
State Action Plans

24. Responses
NAPCC – National Action Plan on Climate Change - Water Mission
State Action Plans

25. National Water Mission (contd.)
Upgradation of storage systems for freshwater & drainage systems for wastewater
Prioritizing vulnerable watersheds
Rejuvenation of old water tanks
Models for urban storm water flows
Strengthen links with afforestation & wetland conservation
Enhance storage capacities in hydro projects
Conservation of wetlands
Development of Desalination techniques

26. Responses

27. Responses

28. Responses

29. mumbai

30. mumbai

31. Mithi river

33. The Beginning of the End
Thank you