1. Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing World Presentation to the Distributed Wind Energy Association F. Andrew Dowdy February 13, 2013

2. The Challenge of Energy Access 1.3 Billion people without electricity 2.7 billion without clean cooking facilities Ramifications include economic development, human health, deforestation Problem will persist in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia Additional $48 billion/year for next 20 years needed Problem will require private sector investment, new commercial models

3. What is the Value of Electricity? Cellphone Charging, Batteries $45-50/kWh Lighting, $6-40/kWh Water Pumping, $1.35/kWh Cooking, $0.07-0.13/kWh Air Conditioning, <$0.05/kWh

4. Why Distributed Power? 1.Small power loads, a long way from the grid 2.Falling cost of renewables, especially solar PV 3.Failure of central grid-based power systems 4.Emergence of IT payment systems

5. How Big is the Distributed Market? –According to IEA, universal access by 2030 requires mini-grid (<500 kW) and off-grid applications totaling: 96 GW of solar (20% C.F.) 33 GW of small wind power (45% C.F.) 19 GW of biomass (60% C.F.) Source: IEA WEO 2011

6. Potential for Small Wind Power Current Global Market* at End of 2010: –521,000 SWT’s globally –443 MW of combined capacity (avg. 850 W) IEA estimate of 33 GW of off-grid and mini-grid wind implies: –75 times 2010 global capacity? –@100 kW = 330,000 SWT’s? –@10 kW = 3.3 million SWT’s? –@3 kW = 11 million SWT’s? (*Based on 2012 Small Wind World Report, WWEA)

7. Barriers to Commercialization Challenges Capital Investment: –Poorest populations don’t have capital to buy these systems outright Operational Management –Need to generate revenue from very small individual sales, with low administrative costs –Need to maintain systems (technical, security questions) Scale –No one is interested in a handful of projects Possible Solutions Financing Schemes –Investors available for viable projects –Partial subsidies may be appropriate Sell Energy Services, not kWh “Anchor customers” –Schools, other government –Cell phone towers IT Payment Systems –Pre-pay meters –Mobile banking Replicable Systems –“Learning Curve” cost reduction –Provides scale

8. Getting There Top-Down: Sustainable Energy for All Initiative –UN, Host Governments, Donors, MDBs, Private Sector financing Bottom-up: –Cellphone companies, NGO’s moving towards standardized models?

9. Opportunities for the Private Sector? –Military, disaster relief applications? –Potentially hundreds, thousands of applications Is there a Ray Kroc model? Not a market for solar panels or wind turbines, But a market for integrated systems Volume of sales key to costs and ultimate profits Standardized systems Distribution networks

10. Questions?