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Effect of Model Calibration on Streamflow Forecast Results Ali Akanda, Andrew Wood, and Dennis Lettenmaier Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

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Presentation on theme: "Effect of Model Calibration on Streamflow Forecast Results Ali Akanda, Andrew Wood, and Dennis Lettenmaier Civil and Environmental Engineering University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Effect of Model Calibration on Streamflow Forecast Results Ali Akanda, Andrew Wood, and Dennis Lettenmaier Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Seattle, WA

2 Problem Calibration is always a time-consuming and labor intensive part of modeling process. Automatic calibration routines are available but still not used widely. Has hampered implementation of models in different operational settings. 1970s: ESP method developed in NWS 2000s: ESP implemented in NWRFC s Question if operational water supply forecasting is mostly concerned with seasonal volumes, do we need to calibrate? Objective see whether bias-correction can achieve same goals as calibration in forecasting streamflow values

3 Contents Domain Calibration Forecasts Results Summary

4 Domain Western U.S. Small-Medium 1/8 th degree 9 being used Mostly unimpaired

5 Calibration Manual Visual comparison of averaged streamflow hydrographs Base State: NLDAS Parameters D s D s max W s b inf Soil Depth [each layer]

6 Green - Colorado Drainage: 468 sq. miles

7 North Fork Flathead Columbia Falls, MT Drainage: 1548 sq. miles

8 White - Colorado Drainage: 755 sq. miles

9 Weber – Great Basin Drainage: 162 sq. miles

10 West Walker – Great Basin Drainage: 181 sq. miles

11 Verde – Colorado Drainage: 5858 sq. miles

12 Forecasts ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) 30 Ensembles for each run (1970-1999) Forecasts for 25 different years: 1975-99 Yearly forecasts run from January 1 / April 1 Dry season streamflow average values (April-July and April-September)

13 Streamflow forecasts – Weber River Basin, UT April 1 forecasts April-SepCalibratedUncalibrated MAE527753 RMSE603811 April-JulyCalibratedUncalibrated MAE463606 RMSE517659 All error values are in cfs

14 Streamflow forecasts – White River Basin, CO April 1 forecasts April-SepCalibratedUncalibrated MAE22162913 RMSE25623295 April-JulyCalibratedUncalibrated MAE19473136 RMSE22093426 All error values are in cfs

15 Streamflow forecasts - North Fork Flathead (NOFOR @ PNW)

16 April-JulyCalibratedUncalibrated MAE58477897 RMSE70738522 April-JulyCalibratedUncalibrated MAE40206925 RMSE47697741 April-SepCalibratedUncalibrated MAE63657089 RMSE77278616 April-SepCalibratedUncalibrated MAE43787345 RMSE52108223 Streamflow forecasts - North Fork Flathead (NOFOR @ PNW) Error Values Jan 1 ForecastsApr 1 Forecasts

17 Results Bias Correction performed based on respective 25-year climatology (75-99) –Percent Anomaly –Rank Percentiles Streamflow Error Values (averaged over ensembles / years) –MAE (Mean Average Error) –RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)

18 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts Weber River Basin, UT April 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly510518 Percentile478504 Uncorrected517659 All error values are in cfs

19 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts Weber River Basin, UT April 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly568573 Percentile578536 Uncorrected603811 All error values are in cfs

20 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts White River Basin, CO April 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly17321674 Percentile15301548 Uncorrected22093426 All error values are in cfs

21 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts White River Basin, CO April 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly19591932 Percentile15341555 Uncorrected25623295 All error values are in cfs

22 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts N Flathead River, MT April 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly37665656 Percentile31304726 Uncorrected37657594 All error values are in cfs

23 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts N Flathead River, MT Apr 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly41847772 Percentile31925114 Uncorrected41908117 All error values are in cfs

24 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts White River Basin, CO Jan 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly16081547 Percentile15331496 Uncorrected17762898 All error values are in cfs

25 Bias Corrected Streamflow forecasts White River Basin, CO Jan 1 forecasts RMSECalibratedUncalibrated Anomaly16891652 Percentile15001512 Uncorrected19632600 All error values are in cfs

26 Summary Calibration helps to reduce the error of streamflow forecast results (expected) Difference of Uncalibrated vs Calibrated forecast results greatly reduced if bias is removed by either method Percentile-based bias correction performs better than anomaly-based bias correction Error reduction from bias-correction similar to that achieved by calibration Similar trends observed with both January 1 and April 1 forecasts

27 Work to be done Comparison of forecast results with different initiation dates (Jan/ Apr 1) Similar results for calibrated basins Study even larger basins (Salmon?)

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