1. Slide 1 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence BRIEFING September 2002

2. Slide 2 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence USA RAIL SAFETY BRIEFING AGENDA Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Overview SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration International University Collaboration FRA Safety Rule Making Participation Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule Major Risk USA Assessment Projects Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview Proposed UVA – China Collaboration

3. Slide 3 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence - Overview MISSION: Develop and maintain railroad performance-based safety enforcement standards, risk assessment methodologies and tool sets that support global rail industry safety enforcement. OBJECTIVES: Provide a Monte Carlo risk assessment systems simulation methodology with web-based tool sets and education that is Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and Association of American Railroads (AAR) compliant. STRATEGY: Implement a UVA School of Engineering and Applied Science (SEAS) interdisciplinary Rail Center of Safety-Critical Excellence staffed with a permanent research staff, faculty from Electrical and Computer Engineering, Systems Information and Engineering, Civil Engineering, and Cognitive Psychology Laboratory. Establish global university - industry collaboration. EXPECTED RESULTS: Global application of performance-based safety standards, risk assessment methodologies, validated & verified tool sets and education.

4. Slide 4 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration Center is based on a SEAS interdisciplinary collaboration with the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and industry suppliers: Electrical and Computer Engineering Department  Monte Carlo systems approach to risk assessment  Probabilistic advanced safety train control Systems Information and Engineering Department  Historical data mining for validation & verification  Human-factors for probabilistic safety behavior Civil Engineering Department  Guideway structures probabilistic behavior models  Crash-worthiness / accident severity Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department  Maglev levitation safety hazards and performance Cognitive Measurements Laboratory  Probabilistic human-factors for safety measurements

5. Slide 5 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence International University Collaboration Collaboration is underway with the following German technical universities: Technical University of Braunschweig Technical University of Dresden

6. Slide 6 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence FRA Safety Enforcement Rule Making Center has participated since 1997 in the preparation of the FRA performance-based safety standard rule making that includes the following: Railroad Safety Program Plan  Defines the Safety Plan process a railroad operator will follow Railroad Product Safety Plan  Requires that a Product Safety Plan be written for each system that is deployed by the railroad operator  Product Safety Plan must include:  Traffic Flow Density  Human-factors  Quantified Risk Assessment  Extensive Safety-Critical Documentation  Documentation Configuration Control & Test Plan  Operational Rule Book

7. Slide 7 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule Performance-based safety standards require the quantification of safety as a societal cost risk versus train miles traveled A Product Safety Plan is required for each system that is deployed by a railroad and the following quantification must be demonstrated: Risk NEW << Risk Old Train Miles Traveled High Degree of Confidence Compliance to Coverage for all Safety-Critical Devices

8. Slide 8 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Major Center USA Risk Assessment Projects CSX: Communication-based Traffic Management (CBTM) 126 mile line Unit coal trains and other mixed mode traffic New York City Transit (NYCT): Communication-based Train Control (CBTC) 22 mile dual track line with crossovers High performance transit railway operations 60 second headways and 30 second train station dwell time Lockheed Martin: Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) Positive Train Control (PTC) 126 mile line with mixed mode operations High speed passenger (110 MPH) trains and freight Maglev, Inc: City of Pittsburgh, “Pennsylvania Project” 45 miles dual crossover guideway with 250 MPH planned speeds Passenger & light freight operation FRA: Web-based predictive risk assessment methodologies and tool set

9. Slide 9 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview PROOF-OF-SAFETY: RISK VERSUS TRAIN MILES TRAVELED Subject to: Traffic throughput density Basic principles of safety Assumptions Constraints Operational rule book compliance Track plan infrastructure: track plan, guideway, bridges, crossings Train movement dynamics multi-dimensional model Signaling and control system multi-state probabilistic model Human-factors probabilistic model Train severity mishap model Proof-of-correctness (Hazard-free validation) Proof-of-safety risk (Non-hazard-free verification) Coverage compliance of all processor-based subsystems

10. Slide 10 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Axiomatic Safety-Critical Assessment Process (ASCAP) Features ASCAP is FRA performance-based standard compliant Monte Carlo large-scale train-centric simulation Operates on a web-based parallel processing mini-super computer ASCAP structure is Unified Modeling Language compliant Calculates Events Passed at Danger based on a dynamic train movement model and probabilistic behavior of wayside devices and human-factors – dispatchers, train crews and maintenance-of-way workers Events Passed at Danger are an automatic generation of fault trees Calculates mishap-pairs: train-to-train collisions, etc. and crash-worthiness severity as societal cost based on history of accidents and/or real-time performance-based simulation

11. Slide 11 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence SIGNIFICANT ASCAP MODELS Probabilistic device behavior: Rule book compliance/non-compliance A.I. blackboard outcomes Human-factors safety behaviors and compliance Train dynamic movement model – discrete & continuous Accident severity societal cost Events passed at danger

12. Slide 12 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Event Passed at Danger (EPAD) Concept YARD A YARD B Train 1 Train 2 S CRASH Train 1 crew sees red signal as green & proceeds Train 1 has generated an EPAD Simulation changes from discrete event to continuous Based on train crew behavior(s) the trains may stop Train 1 crew has violated the rule book compliance

13. Slide 13 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence MISHAP CONCEPT Train B should have taken the siding Discrete Event Simulation Continuous Simulation

14. Slide 14 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Decision Maker Risk Containment Region Societal Cost

15. Slide 15 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence ASCAP++ Tool SET

16. Slide 16 School of Engineering and Applied Science Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Proposed – China/USA Collaboration A China/USA university partnership is proposed that provides FRA compliant risk assessment for the major rail projects in China: Duplicate a Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence in China for:  High Speed Rail  Maglev  Transit Railways Technology transfer of Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) risk assessment compliant methodologies, tool sets and education to China Technology transfer would take place with UVA implementing the risk assessment of a major China rail project with Chinese graduate students at UVA Methodologies and tool sets would be supported via the web as graduate students return to China Chinese university would have a seat on the UVA Advisory Board to provide technical direction oversight. Likewise, Chinese Center would have a technical Advisory Board with a UVA member