1. ATLAS SIG Mass Tourism Coventry, 14th may 2007 LOW COST TOURISM: LENGTH OF STAY Esther Martinez 1 & J.M. Raya 2 1. Universitat de Girona esther.martinez@udg.edu 2. EUM © E.M.

2. Tourism in Catalonia and Spain Tourism in Catalonia and Spain Low cost tourism in Spain and Catalonia Low cost tourism in Spain and Catalonia Duration of stay: previous research Duration of stay: previous research The model and results The model and results Conclusions Conclusions © E.M.

5. Europe: A rrivals in LCC from Europe U.K. 23.2% 1 st Spain 15.8% 2 nd Germany 11.3% 3 rd % of flights for each company Easy Jet 22.3% Ryanair 18.1% Air Berlin 19.5% © E.M.

6. LC Flights: 29.7% of passengers coming by air High concentration in few regions: 92.3% passengers in LCC where in Catalonia, Balearics, Andalusia, C. Valenciana, Canary Islands, Madrid. Catalonia: 3.8milions passengers (24.6% of total Spain) 25.1% increase in relation to 2004 © E.M.

8. “AIR” TOURISM: LC vs. TRADITIONAL © E.M.

9. Previous research  Relevance of length of stay for:  economic impacts (expenditure)  costs (e.g. hotels)  marketing, product configuration, destinations’ management…  Applied models of microeconomic analysis: probits, OLS..( Alegre&Pou, 2007; Gokovali, Bahar&Kozak, 2007; probits, OLS..( Alegre&Pou, 2007; Gokovali, Bahar&Kozak, 2007; Fleisher&Pizam, 2002) Fleisher&Pizam, 2002)  Explanatory variables: socio-economic and demographical (e.g. life-cycle), cultural, destination attributes, prices, income, time… © E.M.

10. Our model  Economic model  Econometric model © E.M.

11. Economic model Based in consumer model. Individual data. Based in consumer model. Individual data. The consumer decides time to be spent at destination depending on: The consumer decides time to be spent at destination depending on: Income and time constraints Income and time constraints Prices Prices Preferences (age, marital status, country,...) Preferences (age, marital status, country,...) © E.M.

12. Econometric model: parametric duration model Model the duration of stay or hazard (probability of abandoning or failure, i.e. leaving the destination) conditioned on having been t periods at destination. Model the duration of stay or hazard (probability of abandoning or failure, i.e. leaving the destination) conditioned on having been t periods at destination. Conditioned on covariates (explanatory variables) Conditioned on covariates (explanatory variables) Proportional Hazard Function Models Proportional Hazard Function Models Accelerated failure time models Accelerated failure time models © E.M.

13. Our model: log-logistic model Girona’s airport, 2005, survey. Girona’s airport, 2005, survey. Dependent variable: days (1-31) Dependent variable: days (1-31) Explanatory variables: Explanatory variables:  Socio-economics-demographics (age, sex, studies, occupation)  Country (proxy for culture, climate...)  Destination (“sun” or “city”)  Trip purpose (VFR, holiday, culture/shopping, study)  Type of accommodation (hotel, camping sites, own homes and F&R)  Season: spring or summer  Organised trip/self organized  Travels alone/doesn’t © E.M.

14. Results 1 Time restriction Time restriction Age (especially from 50); summer ; self employed Age (especially from 50); summer ; self employed Income restrictions Income restrictions Age (specially from 50); ( age  income); low/medium employed Age (specially from 50); ( age  income); low/medium employed Price effects Price effects Camping sts., free housing, rented houses vs. hotels Camping sts., free housing, rented houses vs. hotels Preferences Preferences Country (culture, promotion....): Country (culture, promotion....): Irish, Dutch, Belgians, French (a bit less) Irish, Dutch, Belgians, French (a bit less) Italians, Germans, British Italians, Germans, British Type of attraction: urban tourism vs. “s&s” tourism Type of attraction: urban tourism vs. “s&s” tourism Education: primary vs. secondary and university Education: primary vs. secondary and university Not significant: sex, trip purpose, organized trip. Not significant: sex, trip purpose, organized trip. © E.M.

16. Results 2 VARIABLESurvivor COUNTRY UK6,21 Ireland7,03 France6,34 Holland7,4 Belgium7,52 OCCUPATION Unemployed6,83 L, own job5,97 L, basic¬intermediate level6,2 STUDIES Basic8,32 University6,12 Total6,63 © E.M.

17. Examples (extreme) Holland or Belgium, older than 50 years, camping site, summer, “s&s” destination: Holland or Belgium, older than 50 years, camping site, summer, “s&s” destination: E (length)= 14 days E (length)= 14 days (95% probability between 12 and 15 days) (95% probability between 12 and 15 days) British or Italian, younger than 50 years, hotel 4-5*, spring, Barcelona: British or Italian, younger than 50 years, hotel 4-5*, spring, Barcelona: E (length)= 3 days E (length)= 3 days (95% probability between 2 and 4 days) (95% probability between 2 and 4 days) © E.M.

18. Conclusions Relevance of: Relevance of: Time, income and price constraints Time, income and price constraints Socio-demographic and cultural effects Socio-demographic and cultural effects Destination attributes Destination attributes Important information for destinations (marketing, product orientation,...) Important information for destinations (marketing, product orientation,...) Future research Future research © E.M.