1. An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme Training Module Mainstreaming Climate Change Module 4 Climate related evidence and assessment Ms Isabelle Mamaty Senior Expert Climate Support Facility

2. Climate related evidence and assessment  Learning objective: o To understand how to raise awareness and to proceed to screening and risk assessment processes  Expected outcomes: o Increased knowledge on raising awareness tools o Increased knowledge on screening tools o Increased knowledge on risk assessment tools 2

3. Main entry points in the national and sector policy cycles Policy cycle stageNational levelSector level Policy formulationNational long-term vision National policies and strategies Sector policies and strategies PlanningMulti-year development planSectoral plans Resource allocationNational budget Climate-related fund(s) Sector budget envelopes Resources from fund(s) Programming & implementation Sector-level development plans and budgets Sector programming Adapted from: Olhoff & Schaer (2010) Fig. 1, p. 10 Recognise climate risks Include climate- related programmes/ projects (sectoral and cross-sectoral) Allocate funding for climate-specific actions Relocate funding to vulnerable or priority sectors/ regions Incorporate climate-related activities Include climate considera- tions in project selection criteria 3

4. Who might be good champions? Are there already champions? Raising awareness and building partnerships (1)  Assessing available evidence: o using the findings of relevant studies and demonstration/pilot projects  Engaging key actors: o identifying and mobilising key organisations involved in development at the national and sector levels o identifying and mobilising ‘champions’ 4

5.  Developing and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy in support of mainstreaming: o Define the target audience to be informed or influenced o Develop policy-relevant messages and materials based on evidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes) o Select and use appropriate communication channels for the various target groups (e.g. media, sector working groups) 5 Raising awareness and building partnerships (2)

6. Tools supporting awareness raising and partnership building Assessing evidence Vulnerability and adaptation assessments Macro and meso economic analysis Demonstration or pilot projects Engaging key actors Communication & advocacy strategy National consensus on and commitment to climate-resilient and low-emission development Awareness raising & partnership building Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2011)... are also useful for influencing policies and informing planning processes 6

7. EuropeAid’s climate change sector scripts Agriculture and rural development Ecosystems and biodiversity management Education Energy supply Health Infrastructure Solid waste management Trade and investment Water supply and sanitation 7

8. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment objectives  The objective of the vulnerability and adaptation assessment is to identify, describe and assess: o The main vulnerabilities associated with current and future climate and climate variability. o Existing coping strategies and adaptation responses to these risks. o Current and future adaptation needs. o Options and measures to enhance current and future resilience and adaptive capacity. Source: Downing & Patwardhan (2004) 8

9. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment  A vulnerability and adaptation assessment would typically focus on 3 units of analysis: o Places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and ‘built infrastructure’ o People: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’, livelihoods o Institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate to each other, ‘social capital’  It should assess both current & future vulnerability to determine possible adaptation measures Source: Downing & Patwardhan (2004) 9

10. Steps in community vulnerability & adaptation assessment Source: IPCC (2007c) 4 th Assessment Report, WG II - Fig. 16.3 10

11. Mapping vulnerability 11 Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa – Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 03, p. 122

12. Macro- and meso-economic analysis  Economic analysis may be a powerful tool for motivating policy makers to take action o Macro level: analysis of the impact climate change may have on the national economy o Meso level: analysis at the level of key sectors or sub- sectors of the national economy  The costs of inaction (climate-related losses) are compared with the net benefits of taking action (avoided losses minus costs)  The analysis should also consider the distribution of losses and benefits (among social groups, regions...) 12

13. Demonstration projects Demonstration/ pilot projects Test what works and does not work (relevance, effectiveness) Support lesson drawing for adaptive management Mobilise communities, local/regional authorities & other stakeholders Help foster interest and commitment of national authorities & other stakeholders Create motivation and knowledge for replication/ scaling- up Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)13

14. Climate risk screening : Hazard and risk HazardRisk Probability of occurrence Severity of consequences 14

15. Climate risk screening objectives  Identifies potential risks for a programme or project by assessing, in its specific context:  A standard screening questionnaire can be developed to support this exercise Exposure to the effects of CC Sensitivity to such effects Response & adaptation capacity Maladaptation risk O PTIONAL : Impacts on climate (GHG emissions/ emission removals) 15

16. Climate risk screening: key factors to consider  Location  Sector  Relationship of the planned intervention to livelihoods  Socio-economic conditions (current – projected)  Adaptive capacity of various stakeholder groups o Including current coping mechanisms / autonomous adaptation measures  Lifetime of the considered investments/activities 16

17. Outcomes of climate risk screening GHG emissions or emission removals Significant (*) No specific action, or limited measures Further investigation, adaptation measures Further investigation, redesign for reduced vulnerability/enhanced adaptive capacity, or even abandonment No specific action Further investigation, redesign for reduced maladaptation risk, or even abandonment No specific action, or limited measures Further investigation and enhancement of mitigation potential Vulnerability to the effects of CC Risk of maladaptation None or low Medium High No Yes Insignificant (*) In proportion to the size/scope of the intervention

18. Climate risk assessment objectives  Climate risk assessment (CRA) is a dedicated study aimed at: o assessing in further detail the risks identified during climate risk screening o identifying possible risk prevention, risk mitigation and other adaptation measures o assessing these options o formulating concrete recommendations with regard to the design of the programme or project The assessment of future climate risks should be anchored to an assessment of current risks

19. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA)  A study: o aimed at analysing the environmental consequences of proposed policies/plans/programmes, as well as the main environmental opportunities, risks and constraints to be taken into account o for the purpose of promoting more sustainable development Ensures that environmental considerations are taken into account EARLY in the policy & planning process 19

20. Role of SEA in supporting climate change mainstreaming  With adequate ToR, SEA can: o identify elements of the considered policy or programme that are sensitive to or at risk from climate change o identify elements that may result in increased vulnerability to the effects of climate change o assess direct and indirect GHG emissions o identify options for risk management, adaptation and mitigation o and make recommendations on alternatives, on institutional aspects, capacity building, etc. For a model of ToR, see handout or EC Guidelines on the Integration of Environment & Climate Change (2009), Annex 5

21. Is the assessment linked to: A specific policy, strategy, programme or project? No Vulnerability and adaptation assessment Yes A specific policy or strategy? Yes (†) No A specific programme? No Yes (†) A specific project? Yes (†) Strategic environmental assessment (*) Climate risk assessment Environmental impact assessment (*) (*) With ToRs adapted to include climate-related considerations (†) Climate risk screening can be applied before undertaking a more detailed assessment 21

22. Turning words into action 22

23. Discussion  Question and answers  Climate related evidence and assessment What are the opportunities to develop a climate change related evidence and assessment in your sector or at your level and what are the institutional and capacity needs in your organisation to do so? 23

24. Presentation of case studies  Presentation of vulnerability and risk assessments case studies 24

25. Learning process exercise: Working group  Exercise: Assess impacts, vulnerability and define need for action for a given national or sector programme and/or identify climate risks and adaptation opportunities of a given programme/project 25

26. Recap – Key messages  Mainstreaming climate change at strategic planning levels supports more integrated, effective, efficient and sustainable responses o But top-down and bottom-up approaches to adaptation are complementary and mainstreaming is also justified at local level  Multiple tools are available to support climate change mainstreaming in policies, strategies, programmes and projects  Both ad hoc studies and assessments, and integration of climate-related considerations in feasibility / formulation studies, support this mainstreaming process 26

27. Key references  EC (2009a) EC Cooperation: Responding to Climate Change – ‘Sector scripts’ series. European Commission, Brussels  EC (2009b) Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development Cooperation. European Commission, Brussels  UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty- Environment Initiative  UNEP (2005) Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaigns. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi  Adaptation Learning Mechanism knowledge-sharing platform: http://www.adaptationlearning.net/http://www.adaptationlearning.net/  World Bank – Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change web pages: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate- change-study-homepage http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate- change-study-homepage 27

28. 28 Thank you Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat pendomaro@acp.int or +32 495 281 494 www.gcca.eu/intra-acp www.gcca.eu/intra-acp