2. cteconomy.uconn.edu

4. Top Ten Economic Myths

5. Myth #10 Recovery? What Recovery?

6. CONNECTICUT’S RECOVERY IS UNDER WAY Change in Jobs in Thousands

7. Myth #9 Yes, but this recovery’s sub-par.

8. JOB GROWTH HAS BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED 2011 2012 U.S. GDP Growth CT Job Growth 1969-2012

9. Myth #8 The state hasn’t added jobs, on net, in 20 years.

10. WITH ALL THE JOBS COUNTED THERE’S A LOT MORE WORK NOW THAN BEFORE NOTE: Adjusted for population, CT was 10 th in U.S. in employment growth 1994-2008 Wage and Salary Employment Total Employment

11. Myth #7 High labor costs are holding Connecticut back.

12. OUTPUT PER WORKER FAR EXCEEDS COMPENSATION Annual Worker Output Annual Worker Compensation (Salary + Benefits) In 2011, CT #5 in Output less Compensation (After DE, AK, WY, LA CT

13. Myth #6 Housing costs are out of line.

14. HOME PRICES TRACK WITH INCOME 2010 Median Home Price 2010 Median Family Income Note: Bridgeport-Stamford 21% above predicted; NYC 67% above predicted

15. Myth #5 We’re a high-tax state.

16. WE’RE 45 TH IN OWN-REVENUE* AS A SHARE OF INCOME * Includes Property, Sales, Individual and Corporate Income Taxes and user-charges for commodities and services (e.g. tuition, fees, tolls, etc.) Own-revenue as a % of Income, 2010 Connecticut

17. Myth #4 The rich don’t pay their fair share.

18. MILLIONAIRES’ TAX SHARE EXCEEDS INCOME SHARE NOTE: In 2011, millionaires represented 0.6% of Connecticut filers.

19. Myth #3 Income inequality is rampant.

20. STATE’S INCOME INEQUALITY IS SECOND AMONG FIFTY 2011 Gini Coefficient: 1.0 = perfect inequality 0.0 = perfect equality CT New York

21. FEWER OF US ARE POOR, MORE ARE RICH Percent of Households, 2011

22. Myth #2 Connecticut is plagued by a brain drain.

23. WE’RE 4 th IN COLLEGE-EDUCATED ADULTS Percent of Population 25+ with bachelor’s or higher, 2011 Connecticut

24. AND THERE IS NO MASS EXODUS OF YOUNG PEOPLE (BUT AN AGING POPULATION POSES CHALLENGES) 1989 Profile 1989 Profile Advanced 20 Years 2009 Profile

25. Myth #1 We owe our success to Fairfield County.

26. #1 IN PER CAPITA INCOME WITH FAIRFIELD COUNTY 2011 Per Capita Income

27. #4 IN PER CAPITA INCOME WITHOUT FAIRFIELD COUNTY 2011 Per Capita Income

28. Beyond the Myths (Where to From Here?)

29. GIVEN THE RANGE OF ECONOMISTS’ FORECASTS FOR U.S. GDP Source: The Economist April 20 th – 26 th 2013 Annual Forecasted GDP Growth

30. 14 10 14 CONNECTICUT COULD GAIN 20K-40K JOBS OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 19 22 17 14 Thousands

31. STILL LEAVING CT’S JOB TOTAL 20-40K BELOW 2008 PEAK Thousands

32. HOME SALES ARE PICKING UP 2000-2013 Average

33. AS ARE PERMITS; PARTICULARLY MULTIFAMILY Single Family Permits Multi-Family Permits 56 315 119 213

34. BUT PRICES ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER High Value Tier Mid Value Tier Low Value Tier Across Tier, Prices are Down Nearly 30% Source: CREUES UConn School of Business

35. AND THE SEQUESTER THREATENS TO REVERSE ANY PROGRESS IN JOBS IN 2013 “Best Case” CT Job Growth CT-Specfic Sequester-Related Job Losses* 1.2% of U.S. Sequester-Related Job Losses* *CRS/Chumera Economics Estimates of direct, indirect and induced job losses Change in Jobs

36. TO RECAP Conventional Wisdom Doesn’t Always Stand up to the Evidence Connecticut Remains an Economic Leader and it is Recovering, But Slowly A Housing Resurgence Could Give the Economy a Much-needed Boost But Fiscal Austerity Could Still Derail the Recovery

38. cteconomy.uconn.edu