1. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 WISCONSIN’S FUTURE WORKFORCE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE STATE’S ECONOMY Green Innovations 2009 Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development April 22, 2009

2. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce 2 THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S ECONOMY IN FACT, IT WAS AN ABORATION

3. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 WORKFORCE

4. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 4 Workforce development and economic development are interrelated and interdependent.

5. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 QUANTITY

6. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 6 WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTH BECOMES FLAT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

7. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 7 ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELL WIDEN THE SIDEWALK !

8. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 8 BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTURE PARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

9. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 9 WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

10. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 10 LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPR RETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

11. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 11 NO NEED TO POSTPONE SUCCESSION PLANS IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING Source: Bureau of the Census, OEA

12. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 QUALITY

13. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 13 Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003. Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Routine manual Nonroutine analytic. Nonroutine interactive WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTS CHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK* Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University * Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles

14. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 14 EDUCATION INCLINATION GAINS LIMITED AT BEST

15. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 15 Entry level jobs with family supporting wages and advancement opportunities require same knowledge foundation and skill set as those entering post-secondary education. Advanced reading Advanced writing Advanced mathematics (Algebra II) Fastest growing occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year, require some post- secondary education. EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIRED NO TWO-TRACKING Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.

16. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 ACHIEVEMENT GAP ESTABLISHED EARLY Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago

17. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 ACHIEVEMENT GAP DEPENDENT ON THE MOTHER’S EDUCATION Source: Prof. James Heckman, Nobel Laureate, University of Chicago

18. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 POVERTY v. EDUCATION USE THE CORRECT POLICIES  Ed ≠ f (Poverty)  Poverty = f (Education)

19. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 19 HUGE RETURN ON INVESTMENT HIGH/SCOPE PERRY PRESCHOOL (Per participant in 2000 constant dollars discounted 3% annually) Larry Schweinhart, High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, www.highscope.org

20. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 20 STATE IMPACTS BENEFICIAL AND PERPETUAL Graph representative of data portrayed in Enriching Children, Enriching the Nation, Robert Lynch, Economic Policy Institute, 2007. Cost bump in 2021 due to higher post-secondary enrollments Benefits rise faster after 2021 due to higher earnings of graduates

21. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 21 Asked what he admires most in Western counterparts, Jiang Jianqing, chairman of China's largest state bank, ICBC, says, "Innovation. Americans have an endless passion for it. …. you can't stop it. It's one of the most important ways to push enterprise forward." WHAT WILL KEEP US IN FRONT ? INNOVATION IS A MUST Source: Newsweek, Published January 10, 2009, From the magazine issue dated January 19, 2009, http://www.newsweek.com/id/178810?from=rss

22. Wisconsin’sFutureWorkforce April 22, 2009 22 Dennis Winters Phone: 608-267-3262 Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.govwww.dwd.wisconsin.gov OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oeawww.dwd.wisconsin.gov CONTACT INFORMATION