1. IMPROVING COLLEGE ACCESS AND SUCCESS: Lessons from Institutions on the Performance Frontier Statewide Education Forum Baton Rouge, Louisiana February, 2007

2. You’ve come here today to talk together about how you can improve both access to and success within higher education in Louisiana. And, given the numbers, many of you are especially concerned about changing patterns for low-income students and African Americans.

3. At this meeting, you’ll be discussing mounting initiatives aimed at both overall increases and at cutting in half the gaps—in both access and success—that separate these students from other young Louisianans.

4. For some of you, at least, there’s a very big question: what does all of this have to do with me?

5. Isn’t improving college going and college success—especially among low-income and minority students—mostly about better high school preparation and more generous student financial aid?

6. Yes, these things matter and they matter a lot. But it turns out that what you do matters a lot, too.

7. This morning: Review the data on achievement and attainment patterns, K-16; Identify some institutions that are exceptions to those patterns; Share what we’re learning from those institutions about action steps that really matter.

8. First, some good news. After more than a decade of fairly flat achievement and stagnant or growing gaps, we appear to be turning the corner.

9. NAEP Reading, 9 Year-Olds: Record Performance for All Groups Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

10. NAEP Math, 9 Year-Olds: Record Performance for All Groups Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

11. Bottom Line: When We Really Focus on Something, We Make Progress

12. Clearly, much more remains to be done in elementary and middle school Too many youngsters still enter high school way behind.

13. But at least we have some traction on these problems.

14. The Same is NOT True of High School

15. Age 17: Math and Science NAEP Long- Term Trends Source: NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress and NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress. Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

16. Age 17: Reading and Writing NAEP Long-Term Trends Source: NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress. Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

17. Gaps between groups wider today than in 1990

18. NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds 21 29 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

19. NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds 20 28 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

20. Value Added in High School Declined During the Nineties

21. Value Added Declining in High School Math... Scale Score Growth, From Age 13 to Age 17 Source: NCES, 1999. Trends in Academic Progress. Data from Long Term Trend NAEP Note: Scale score gains reflect the difference between the scale scores of 17-year-olds and the scale scores of 13-year-olds four years prior.

22. ... Still Scale Score Growth, From Grade 8 to Grade 12 Source: NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde Note: Scale score gains reflect the difference between the scale scores of 12 th Graders and the scale scores of 8 th Graders four years prior.

23. Reading: Students Entering High School Better Prepared, But Leaving Worse Total= 290 Total= 288 Source: NCES, 1999. Trends in Academic Progress. Data from Long Term Trend NAEP

24. Hormones?

25. Students in Other Countries Gain far More in Secondary School TIMSS

26. PISA

27. PISA 2003: US 15 Year-Olds Rank Near The End Of The Pack Among 29 OECD Countries Source: NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem Solving: 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003

28. 2003: U.S. Ranked 24 th out of 29 OECD Countries in Mathematics Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ http://www.oecd.org/

29. Problems are not limited to our high-poverty and high-minority schools...

30. U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ http://www.oecd.org/

31. U.S. Ranks 23 rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of the Highest- Performing Students* * Students at the 95 th Percentile Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ http://www.oecd.org/

32. U.S. Ranks 23 rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of High-SES Students Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ http://www.oecd.org/

33. Problems not limited to math, either.

34. PISA 2003: Problem-Solving, US Ranks 24 th Out of 29 OECD Countries Source: NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem Solving: 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003

35. More than half of our 15 year olds at problem-solving level 1 or below. Source: OECD Problem Solving for Tomorrow’s World. 2004

36. One measure on which we rank high? Inequality!

37. * Of 29 OECD countries, based on scores of students at the 5 th and 95 th percentiles. PISA 2003: Gaps in Performance Of U.S.15 Year-Olds Are Among the Largest of OECD Countries Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data available at http://www.oecd.org/ http://www.oecd.org/

38. These gaps begin before children arrive at the schoolhouse door. But, rather than organizing our educational system to ameliorate this problem, we organize it to exacerbate the problem.

39. How? By giving students who arrive with less, less in school, too.

40. Some of these “lesses” are a result of choices that policymakers make.

41. Nation: Inequities in State and Local Revenue Per Student Gap High Poverty vs. Low Poverty Districts -$907 per student High Minority vs. Low Minority Districts -$614 per student Source: The Education Trust, The Funding Gap 2005. Data are for 2003

42. Not Just K-12: In higher education, we spend less per student in the institutions where most low-income students start. Expenditures per student 2 Year Colleges$9,183 4 Year Colleges$27,973 Source: NCES Digest of Education Statistics, 2003

43. But some of the “lesses” –indeed, perhaps the most devastating ones— are a function of choices that educators make.

44. Choices we make about what to expect of whom…

45. Source: Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in “Prospects: Final Report on Student Outcomes”, PES, DOE, 1997. Students in Poor Schools Receive ‘A’s for Work That Would Earn ‘Cs’ in Affluent Schools

46. Choices we make about what to teach whom…

47. Source: CCSSO, State Indicators of Science and Mathematics Education, 2005 Fewer Latino students are enrolled in Algebra 1 in Grade 8

48. Source: CCSSO, State Indicators of Science and Mathematics Education, 2001 Fewer Latino students are enrolled in Algebra 2

49. And choices we make about Who teaches whom…

50. More Classes in High-Poverty, High- Minority Schools Taught By Out-of-Field Teachers *Teachers lacking a college major or minor in the field. Data for secondary-level core academic classes. Source: Richard M. Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania. Original analysis for the Ed Trust of 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey. High poverty Low povertyHigh minority Low minority Note: High Poverty school-50% or more of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. Low-poverty school -15% or fewer of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. High-minority school - 50% or more of the students are nonwhite. Low-minority school- 15% or fewer of the students are nonwhite.

51. Poor and Minority Students Get More Inexperienced* Teachers Source: National Center for Education Statistics, “Monitoring Quality: An Indicators Report,” December 2000. *Teachers with 3 or fewer years of experience. High poverty Low poverty High minority Low minority Note: High poverty refers to the top quartile of schools with students eligible for free/reduced price lunch. Low poverty- bottom quartile of schools with students eligible for free/reduced price lunch. High minority-top quartile; those schools with the highest concentrations of minority students. Low minority-bottom quartile of schools with the lowest concentrations of minority students

52. Results are devastating. Kids who come in a little behind, leave a lot behind.

53. By the end of high school?

54. African American and Latino 17 Year-Olds Do Math at Same Levels As White 13 Year-Olds Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

55. African American and Latino 17 Year-Olds Read at Same Levels As White 13 Year-Olds Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP

56. And these are the students who remain in high school. What do those numbers look like?

57. Students Graduate From High School At Different Rates * 4-Year Graduation Rates Source: Jay P. Greene and Marcus A. Winters, The Manhattan Institute, 2006. Leaving Boys Behind: Public High School Graduation Rates. Data is for the class of 2003.

58. True, Among High School Graduates, College-Going is Increasing

59. Immediate College-Going Increasing for All Groups: 1980 to 2002 Source: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2002 (2003), Table 183 AND U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Report, October 2002.

60. College Going Increasing for High School Grads at All Income Levels Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, October Current Population Surveys, 1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of Education 2002, p.166. *Due to small sample sizes, 3-year averages used for Low-income category

61. But though college going up for minorities, gains among whites have been greater

63. And though college going up for low-income students, they still haven’t reached rate of high income students in mid- seventies.

65. Highest Achieving Low-Income Students Attend Postsecondary at Same Rate as Bottom Achieving High Income Students Source: NELS: 88, Second (1992) and Third Follow up (1994); in, USDOE, NCES, NCES Condition of Education 1997 p. 64

66. But access isn’t the only issue: There’s a question of access to what…

68. And what about graduation?

69. Black and Latino Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates (6 Year Rates; All 4-Year Institutions) Source: U.S. DOE, NCES, 1995-96 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, Second Follow- Up (BPS: 96/01) in U.S. DOE, NCES, Descriptive Summary of 1995-96 Beginning Postsecondary Students: Six Years Later. Table 7-6 on page 163. Overall rate: 55%

70. The result? Increases in college completion not commensurate with increases in college going.

71. College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher, Whites Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, October Current Population Surveys, 1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of Education 2002, p.166 and 174. 19 10

72. College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher, Blacks Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, October Current Population Surveys, 1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of Education 2002, p.166 and 174. 21 7

73. College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher, Hispanics Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, October Current Population Surveys, 1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of Education 2002, p.166 and 174.

74. Internationally? After decades of leading all other developed countries in both college going and college completion, we are no longer first in either.

75. Moreover, while college graduates have stronger literacy and quantitative skills than non- graduates…

76. 2003 NAAL Prose Literacy by Educational Attainment Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2005. Available at : http://nces.ed.gov/NAAL Some college refers to adults who attended a post-secondary institution but did not obtain a degree

77. 2003 NAAL Quantitative Literacy by Educational Attainment Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2005. Available at : http://nces.ed.gov/NAAL Some college refers to adults who attended a post-secondary institution but did not obtain a degree

78. Too few are proficient, too many are basic or below, and in both categories the numbers are getting worse.

79. 2003 NAAL Percent of College Graduates Proficient Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2005. Available at : http://nces.ed.gov/NAAL

80. 2003 NAAL Percent of College Graduates Basic Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2005. Available at : http://nces.ed.gov/NAAL

81. ADD IT ALL UP...

82. Of Every 100 White Kindergartners: (25-to 29-Year-Olds) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2003, in The Condition of Education 2005. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2005/section3/indicator23.asp#info

83. Of Every 100 African American Kindergartners: (25-to 29-Year-Olds) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2003, in The Condition of Education 2005. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2005/section3/indicator23.asp#info

84. Of Every 100 Latino Kindergartners : (25-to 29-Year-Olds) Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2003, in The Condition of Education 2005. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/2005/section3/indicator23.asp#info

85. Of Every 100 American Indian/Alaskan Native Kindergartners: (25 Years Old and Older) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, We the People: American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States. Data source: Census 2000, www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/race/censr-28.pdfwww.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/race/censr-28.pdf

86. College Graduates by Age 24 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Educational Opportunity.

87. So What Can We Do?

88. Many educators have concluded that we can’t do much.

89. What We Hear Many K-12 Educators Say: They’re poor; Their parents don’t care; They come to schools without breakfast; Not enough books Not enough parents...

90. The Postsecondary Equivalent? They enter without the necessary skills; They have to work to support their families; Their peers and families don’t support and value their struggle…

91. But if they are right, why are low- income students and students of color performing so high in some schools…

92. M. Hall Stanton Elementary Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

93. 487 students in grades K-6 100% African American 86% Low-Income Source: Philadelphia School District, https://sdp-webprod.phila.k12.pa.us/school_profiles/servlet/

94. Rapid Improvement at Stanton Grade 5 Reading Over Time Source: School Information Partnership, http://www.schoolmatters.com Pennsylvania Department of Education, http://www.pde.state.pa.us

95. Rapid Improvement at Stanton Grade 5 Math Over Time Source: School Information Partnership, http://www.schoolmatters.com Pennsylvania Department of Education, http://www.pde.state.pa.us

96. Capitol View Elementary Atlanta, Georgia

97. 252 students in grades K-5 95% African American 88% Low-Income Source: Georgia Governor’s Office of Student Achievement, http://reportcard2006.gaosa.org/

98. High Achievement at Capitol View 2006 Grade 5 Reading Source: Georgia Governor’s Office of Student Achievement, http://reportcard2006.gaosa.org/

99. High Achievement at Capitol View 2006 Grade 5 Math Source: Georgia Governor’s Office of Student Achievement, http://reportcard2006.gaosa.org/

100. Elmont Memorial Junior-Senior High School

101. Elmont Memorial Junior-Senior High School Elmont, New York 1,966 Students in Grades 7-12 75% African American 12% Latino Source: New York State School Report Card, http://www.emsc.nysed.gov/irts/reportcard/

102. Elmont Memorial Higher Percentage of Students Meeting Graduation Requirements than the State, Class of 2004 Regents English Source: New York State School Report Card, http://www.emsc.nysed.gov/irts/reportcard/

103. Elmont Memorial Higher Percentage of Students Meeting Graduation Requirements than the State, Class of 2004 Regents Math Source: New York State School Report Card, http://www.emsc.nysed.gov/irts/reportcard/

104. University Park Campus School

105. University Park Campus School Worcester, Massachusetts 220 Students in Grades 7-12 9% African American 18% Asian 35% Latino 39% White 73% Low-Income Source: Massachusetts Department of Education School Profile, http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/

106. University Park Results: 2004 100% of 10 th graders passed MA high school exit exam on first attempt. 87% passed at advanced or proficient level. Fifth most successful school in the state, surpassing many schools serving wealthy students.

107. University Park Higher Percentage of Students at Proficient and Advanced than the State 2005 Grade 10 Math Source: Massachusetts Department of Education School Profile, http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/

108. Guess What? Also very big differences in college results…even among those who serve “same” kinds of students.

109. Higher education institutions graduation rates

110. Some of these differences are clearly attributable to differences in student preparation and/or institutional mission. But not all…

111. Some colleges are far more successful than their students’ “stats” would suggest.

112. Doc/Research Institutions With Similar Students Getting Different Results Median SAT Size% PellOverall 6 Yr-Grad Rate White/URM Grad Rate Gap Penn State119533,97519%83%-14% Univ of Wisconsin 124027,71112%76%-21% Texas A & M 118533,90114%75%-9% Univ of Washington 118525,05921%71%-11% Univ of Minnesota 114528,27316%54%-19%

113. Masters Level Institutions With Similar Students Getting Different Results Median SAT Size% PellOverall 6 Yr-Grad Rate URM 6-Yr Grad Rate Millersville U of PA 1055636919%66%46% SUNY at Plattsburgh 1045513033%59%52% NW MO State 1010504327%53%44% Northern Michigan U 1010783132%45%38%

114. Bac General/Masters Institutions With Similar Students Getting Different Results Median SAT Size% PellOverall 6 Yr-Grad Rate URM 6-Yr Grad Rate Elizabeth City (NC) 810203960%51%54% Kentucky State 825182749%39%44% Fayetteville State (NC) 865382055%38%39% U of Ark Pine Bluff 775291868%31% Coppin State (MD) 875269157%22%

115. College Results Online

117. Bottom Line: At Every Level of Education, What We Do Matters A Lot!

118. MOVING FORWARD

119. 1. Improving Preparation: Four things higher education can do

120. A. Don’t be bashful about pressing for all students to graduate high school “college ready.” High impact schools aim high for all students. Even when they start with high dropout rates, they aim students toward college and careers.

121. That’s Good, Because Education Pays: 2000 U.S. Median Earnings Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Decennial Census)

122. Growing Need for Higher Levels of Education: Projections of Education Shortages and Surpluses in 2012 Associates Degree Some College Shortage Surplus Source: Analysis by Anthony Carnevale, 2006 of Current Population Survey (1992-2004) and Census Population Projection Estimates Bachelor’s Degree

123. NEW STUDY FROM ACT: College ready, workforce training ready=same thing

124. B. Add your voice to the movement to make the “college prep” curriculum the default curriculum for all students.

125. Single biggest predictor post-high school success is QUALITY AND INTENSITY OF HIGH SCHOOL CURRICULUM Source: Cliff Adelman, 2006, The Toolbox Revisited, U.S. Department of Education.

126. High School Curriculum Intensity is a Strong Predictor of Bachelor’s Degree Completion Source: Clifford Adelman, U.S. Department of Education, The Toolbox Revisited, 2006. Curriculum quintiles are composites of English, math, science, foreign language, social studies, computer science, Advanced Placement, the highest level of math, remedial math and remedial English classes taken during high school.

127. College prep curriculum has benefits far beyond college.

128. Students of all sorts will learn more...

129. Source: USDOE, NCES, Vocational Education in the United States: Toward the Year 2000, in Issue Brief: Students Who Prepare for College and Vocation *Grade 8-grade 12 test score gains based on 8th grade achievement. Low Quartile Students Gain More From College Prep Courses*

130. They will also fail less often...

131. Challenging Curriculum Results in Lower Failure Rates, Even for Lowest Achievers Source: SREB, “Middle Grades to High School: Mending a Weak Link”. Unpublished Draft, 2002. Ninth-grade English performance, by high/low level course, and eighth-grade reading achievement quartiles

132. And they’ll be better prepared for the workplace.

133. Leading districts, states making college prep the default curriculum. Texas, Indiana, Arkansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Kansas.

134. C. Getting All Students in Courses With the Right Labels Isn’t Enough. Higher education can be strong partner in quality assurance strategies.

135. Fertile ground for P-16 work: High quality assignments, lessons, units, end-of-course assessments.

136. D. Good teachers matter big time.

137. LOW ACHIEVING STUDENTS IN TN GAIN MORE WITH EFFECTIVE TEACHERS: One Year Growth Sanders and Rivers, Cumulative and Residual Effects of Teachers on Future Academic Achievement, 1998.

138. Cumulative Teacher Effects On Students’ Math Scores in Dallas (Grades 3-5) Source: Heather Jordan, Robert Mendro, and Dash Weerasinghe, The Effects of Teachers on Longitudinal Student Achievement, 1997. Beginning Grade 3 Percentile Rank= 55 Beginning Grade 3 Percentile Rank= 57

139. But some students don’t get their fair share of strong teachers.

140. More Classes in High-Poverty, High- Minority Schools Taught By Out-of-Field Teachers *Teachers lacking a college major or minor in the field. Data for secondary-level core academic classes. Source: Richard M. Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania. Original analysis for the Ed Trust of 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey. High poverty Low povertyHigh minority Low minority Note: High Poverty school-50% or more of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. Low-poverty school -15% or fewer of the students are eligible for free/reduced price lunch. High-minority school - 50% or more of the students are nonwhite. Low-minority school- 15% or fewer of the students are nonwhite.

141. Poor and Minority Students Get More Inexperienced* Teachers Source: National Center for Education Statistics, “Monitoring Quality: An Indicators Report,” December 2000. *Teachers with 3 or fewer years of experience. High poverty Low poverty High minority Low minority Note: High poverty refers to the top quartile of schools with students eligible for free/reduced price lunch. Low poverty- bottom quartile of schools with students eligible for free/reduced price lunch. High minority-top quartile; those schools with the highest concentrations of minority students. Low minority-bottom quartile of schools with the lowest concentrations of minority students

142. Does any of this matter to college preparation? Teacher Quality in Illinois and Its Impact on College Readiness

143. College Readiness at High Poverty, High Minority Schools by TQI Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois. http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf

144. Percent of Students More/Most Ready by High School TQI and Highest Math Level Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois. http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf http://ierc.siue.edu/documents/College%20Readiness%20-%202005-3.pdf

145. Because of pioneering work of Blue Ribbon Commission, Louisiana already out ahead on building necessary data systems, looking at value-added by source college. But it’s important for you to ACT on what you learn here.

146. So far, talked mostly about how you can help spur and support improvements in high schools.

147. But while those efforts take root, there are many, many things you can do to turn your numbers around now.

148. 2. Improving Access and Success in College. Five places to focus.

149. A. Leadership Matters

150. A lot of campuses add learning communities, “freshman experiences”, learning centers and the like…and then wonder why their numbers don’t improve.

151. These things can help. But student access and success must become a high priority for all academic units.

152. That’s why presidential and provost leadership is so important. Leadership role can’t simply be “delegated down.”

153. B. Helps to set stretch goals on student success, track progress, reward results.

154. And the data need to be used. Factor in presidential evaluation in CSU, ULS, USG, UMS.

155. C. Take a look at how you are deploying institutional aid.

156. Both the federal government and state governments have shifted more and more of their aid resources toward more affluent students.

157. Maximum Pell Grant Coverage of Cost of College

160. But the shifts away from poor students in institutional aid money are MORE PRONOUNCED than the shifts in government aid.

163. Are you truly meeting legitimate need of low-income students or shifting precious resources to compete for high-income students?

164. D. Momentum matters. It is critically important to identify and fix “choke points” in student progression—courses where availability and/or disproportionate failure is blocking student progression.

165. Best examples: University of Northern Iowa; also, Univ of Alabama and others in NCAT course redesign initiative.

166. E. Go after students who left in good standing without a degree, and invite them back. e.g. University of New Mexico Graduation Project.

167. The Education Trust Download this Presentation www.edtrust.org Washington, DC: 202-293-1217 Oakland, CA: 510-465-6444