1. Are Your Polls Effective? Yes, No, Maybe St. Louis, Missouri June 22, 2011 Richard Bernard, Ph.D. Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference Understanding The Keys To Successful Transit Ballot Measure Campaigns

2. 1 Outline I. Why Poll and Different Types of Polls II. Ingredients in an Effective Poll III. Polls Can be Effective/May Not be Effective IV. Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been Developed

3. 2 I.Why Poll and Different Types of Polls

4. 3 Find out where the race currently stands Determine whether moving forward is a viable reality Invest a little to potentially save a lot Figure out a strategy to win – Road Map or Planning Tool  Messaging – How do you sell your initiative?  Targeting – Which demographic/geographic groups do you target and with what messages? Why Poll?

5. 4 Benchmark(Baseline) In-depth survey (15-25 minutes) Provides strategic plan for campaign Refinement Moderate length (10-15 minutes) Develops or tests ballot measure title and summary Pulse Moderate length (10-15 minutes) Re-assesses where the measure stands among electorate Asks additional information and tests new potential messaging for public outreach/campaign Different Types of Polls

6. 5 Track Short, basic survey (5-10 minutes) Tracks where the measure stands among the electorate Measures impact of paid and free media Post-Election Survey Somewhat in-depth survey (15-20 minutes) Examines recall of recent measure and level of support Aids in the prioritizing of transportation projects and services Helps brand measure in relation to transportation agency Different Types of Polls – Each has a Different Roll (continued)

7. 6 II. Ingredients in an Effective Poll Sample Represents Likely Voter Turnout Reasonable Sample Size Good Background Research

8. 7 Sample: A randomly selected list that represents your universe  Ideally drawn from a list of registered voters, but often drawn from a Random-Digit Dial (RDD) sample of individuals who report that they are 18+ and registered to vote  Includes landline, cell phone numbers and voter data  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services report that as of June 2010, 23.9% of adults were living in wireless-only households (with lowest rates in Rhode Island and New Jersey 12.8% and highest rates in Arkansas 35.2%) Sample Represents Likely Voter Turnout

9. 8 Representative of Likely Voter Turnout  Likely turnout is based on historical data and individual vote history  Poll is likely to be more inclusive than exclusive  Various turnout scenarios can be analyzed with data  Voter turnout tends to skew towards older and whiter, population skews towards younger and more ethnically diverse individuals The Right Sample (Continued) U.S. General Election Turnout Percentages U.S. General Election Turnout of Voting-Age Population 200856.8% 200637.1% 200455.3% 200237.0% 200051.3% http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

10. 9 The margin of error is derived from a mathematical process which gives you a range within which responses are accurate. It is the degree of confidence that you can apply to the results of the interviewing. For example, on a national survey of 1,000 respondents at least 18 years old, the researcher can project the results of a survey to the entire universe of Americans ages 18 years and older, within + 3.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. This means that if you were to replicate the survey at the same point in time, the results would be within three percentage points of your results (in 95 out of 100 cases). Reasonable Sample Size – Margin of Error Matters Sample SizeM.O.E. 5013.86 100 9.8 150 8 200 6.93 250 6.2 300 5.66 350 5.24 400 4.9 450 4.6 500 4.38 600 4 700 3.7 800 3.46 900 3.27 1000 3.1

11. 10 What do you want the money for?  projects and/or services  enhancements/maintenance/restoration How much money is needed?  best and worst case scenarios What does the pollster need to know about the area  historically, demographically, geographically, political, etc. Good Background Research

12. 11 Who is likely to support the measure?  How well funded are the supporters Who is likely to oppose the measure?  How well funded is the opposition and what are they likely to say. Garbage in, garbage out – a poll can only be as good as the research that goes into it Good Background Research (Continued)

13. 12 III. Polls Can be Effective/May Not be Effective

14. 13 Examining awareness, concerns and attitudes at a cross-section in time and place Helping frame wording, messaging and ballot titles and summary language Assessing voters’ threshold for the amount they are willing to pay Identifying on which projects/services voters are willing to fund Highlighting potential roadblocks and dismissing non-threatening concerns Identifying support, opposition and persuadable voters Learning what to say to who Distinguishing credible messengers and sources of information Polls Can be Effective at

15. 14 Guiding communication decisions and how to best spend dollars efficiently and effectively to build a successful effort Convincing elected officials and/or key decision makers to side or oppose an initiative (or at least stay out of the discussion) Building coalition Raising funds Generating free media Measuring the effectiveness of public outreach/campaign over time through multiple surveys Polls Can be Effective at (Continued)

16. Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010 Transportation Statements Framing the Right Question is Critical. 15 “The United States Would Benefit From an Expanded and Improved Public Transportation System, Such as Rail and Buses”

17. Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010 Transportation Statements Framing the Right Question is Critical. (Continued) 16 “My Community Would Benefit From an Expanded and Improved Public Transportation System, Such as Rail and Buses”

18. 17 The Right Ballot Title and Summary is Critical for the Success of a Measure Cathedral City Measure Q (Riverside County) Shall a 0.75% tax be imposed on transactions and uses in the city, with the revenue to be used for general municipal purposes? Final Vote: November 2006 Measure H: Fiscal Emergency Measure -- City of Cathedral City (Riverside County) To offset the impact of severe state budget cuts on essential services; address Cathedral City's Fiscal Emergency; prevent drastic cuts to police officers, firefighters, paramedics and ambulance response, 9-1-1 emergency dispatch, safety equipment for police officers and firefighters, anti-gang/anti-drug programs; and preserve other general City services, shall Cathedral City adopt a one cent transactions (sales) and use tax, expiring in five years, requiring citizens' finance advisory committee review and annual financial audits? Final Vote: June 2010

19. 18 Polls Help Identify the Best Wording (Ranked by % Extremely Important) 12. I am going to read you a list of some ways that funds raised by THE LOCAL 9-1-1 FIREFIGHTER/PARAMEDIC EMERGENCY MEDICAL RESPONSE MEASURE may be used in your community. Please tell me how important it is to you that each feature be included: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. ^ Not Part of Split Sample % Total Ext./Very Important Difference +16% “Preventing an increase in 911 emergency response times” “Maintaining fast 911 emergency response times” VS.

20. Public Opinion Strategy: Future of Transportation National Survey – March 2010 In general, would you support or oppose increasing funding to expand and improve public transportation in your community, if it required a small increase in taxes or fees? Support for Small Tax/Fee for Public Transportation, by Party Polls Identify Supporters and Opponents (31%)(30%) (35%) (22%) 19

21. 20 Polls Help Determine What to Say to Who “Expanding the existing subway system” (Scale 1 to 7: 1=Not At All Willing to vote to pay for the use and 7=You are Very Willing to vote to pay for the use) I am now going to read you a list of ways money from the transportation ballot measure could be used. Regardless of your opinion of the measure, after I mention each one, please tell me how willing you would be personally to pay for that proposed item through a: A “sales tax increase”/“parcel tax increase” to relieve traffic congestion and improve road safety in Los Angeles County

22. 21 Polls Help Identify Potential Roadblocks - Message Order in a Contested Election Could be Critical Supportive Statements FirstOpposition Statements First (All Voters)

23. 22 Simulating in a “perfect world” how a potential educational outreach program and/or funding initiative campaign may play out (i.e. predicting the unexpected) Convincing a politician who has competing agendas Predicting voter response to unclear or complicated ballot language Polls May Not be Effective at

24. 23 Predicting the early impact of a “stacked ballot” Anticipating what the opposition will actually do Pre-testing the effectiveness of the delivery of messages through TV ads or mail Polls May Not be Effective (Continued)

25. 24 Polls Can’t Always Predicted Unexpected Future Events Progression- $720 Million Bond 9/17/19. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?

26. 25 Opposition Out Spent and Out Messaged Supporters of the Measure STOP THE MONEY GRAB! www.StopTheMoneyGrab.com Important News Regarding Measure "G"

27. 26 Final Vote and Survey Results: Measure G: Mt. San Jacinto Community College District Survey Results: January 2006 Final Vote: June 6, 2006

28. 27 Most Surveys Focus on a Isolated Measure – Ignoring Positioning on the Ballot and Competing and Overlapping Measure Priorities e.g. 2008 City of Los Angeles ( Survey Conducted in October 2008 ) Proposition 1: $9.9 Billion Statewide High Speed Train Bond Measure Proposition 10: $5 Billion Statewide Alternative Fuel Clean Energy Bond Measure Measure R: ½-cent County Transportation Sales Tax Measure J: $3.5 Billion Community College Bond Measure Q: $7 Billion Los Angeles Unified School District Bond (29 cities and unincorporated areas) Proposition A: Los Angeles City $36 Annual Parcel Tax Gang and Youth Violence Prevention Measure

29. 28 City of Los Angeles Special Gang and Youth Violence Prevention, After-School and Job Training Programs Tax Final Vote and Survey Results One Month Before Survey Results: October 2008 Final Vote: November 2008

30. 29 IV.Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been Developed

31. 30 Polling data can help shape on-going strategy Can influence communication materials Materials can be tested through an Internet survey, focus groups or through dial groups Polls Can Effectively be Used Even after the Campaign Road Map has been Developed

32. 31 The poll results should guide your strategic plan, but they have to be matched with reality: your budget, your organizational capacities and political developments. Remember that any poll is only a snapshot of opinion at one moment in time; conditions in the campaign are certain to evolve – and so will the numbers Final Notes of Caution

33. For more information, contact: 2425 Colorado Ave., Suite 180 Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone (310) 828-1183 Fax (310) 453-6562 Bernard@FM3research.com