1. National Wind Generation Picture

2. Outline 1.US energy today 2.Legislative landscape 3.The future 4.Long-term national planning 5.Conclusions

3. 1.US energy today: Existing US resource mix by capacity 3 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

4. 1.US energy today: Retail Prices - 2007 4

5. 1.US energy today: US wind capacity historical growth 5 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

6. 1. US energy today: Wind capacity by state 6 Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.orgwww.awea.org

7. 1. US energy today: Wind capacity and 2008 growth by state 7 ? ? ? ? ? ? Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.orgwww.awea.org

8. 1.US energy today: Wind % capacity by state 8 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

9. 1.US energy today: Market share of total US wind fleet 9 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

10. 1.US energy today: Market share of 2008 wind installations 10 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

11. 1.US energy today: Ownership by company and by utility 11 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

12. 1.US energy today: Power purchase agreements+ownership 12 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

13. 1.US energy today: Wind plant size 13 Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report

14. 2. Legislative landscape: Renewable portfolio standards (on energy) 29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind) 14 State renewable portfolio standard State renewable portfolio goal Solar water heating eligible * † Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources WA: 15% by 2020* CA: 33% by 2020 ☼ NV : 25% by 2025* ☼ AZ: 15% by 2025 ☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) HI: 40% by 2030 ☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 UT: 20% by 2025* ☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* MT: 15% by 2015 ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 IA: 105 MW MN: 25% by 2025 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) ☼ MO: 15 % by 2021 WI : Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015* ☼ OH : 25% by 2025 † ME: 30% by 2000 New RE: 10% by 2017 ☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025 ☼ MA: 15% by 2020 + 1% annual increase (Class I Renewables) RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 23% by 2020 ☼ NY: 24% by 2013 ☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021 ☼ PA: 18% by 2020 † ☼ MD: 20% by 2022 ☼ DE: 20% by 2019* ☼ DC: 20% by 2020 VA: 15% by 2025* ☼ NC : 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017 29 states & DC have an RPS 6 states have goals KS: 20% by 2020 ☼ OR : 25% by 2025 (large utilities )* 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) ☼ IL: 25% by 2025 WV: 25% by 2025* †

15. 2. Legislative landscape: Tax incentives 15 Federal Incentives: Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour PTC,or 30% investment tax credit (ITC) State incentives: IA: 1.5¢/kWhr, small wind, Utah, Oklahoma, Various other including sales & property tax reductions

16. 2. Legislative landscape: Federal, congressional bills 16 Waxman-Markey (House, passed)Kerry-Boxer (Senate) 2012 renewables target6% of electric energy renewable In separate bill (Bingaman) 2020 renewables target20% 2012 emissions targetCuts by 3% (2005 baseline) 2020 Emissions targetCuts by 17%Cuts by 20% (2005 baseline) 2030 Emissions target42% 2050 Emissions target83% See http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-markey-bill-breakdown/http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-markey-bill-breakdown/

17. 17 $60 billion AEP plan Joint Coordinated System Plan (20%wind). Cost: $82 billion (2024 $) 2. Legislative Landscape Building Transmission

18. 2. Legislative Landscape Building Transmission Multi-state transmission is very difficult FERC’s authority – national interest corridors Regional efforts 2008: Uppr Mdwst Trns Dvlpmnt Initiative: MN,ND,SD,IA,WI 2008: Joint Coord Sys Planning: MISO, PJM, SPP, TVA, MAPP 2010: DOE transmission planning grants:  Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, MISO, SoCo, TVA, MAPP, Entergy  WECC: Most of the western companies Will FERC mandate if a state rejects T-plans? 18

19. 3. The future: US wind potential by state 19 Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106 Annual wind energy potential (10 12 w-hrs) Annual wind energy potential R= ------------------------------------------ 2006 state annual retail sales States with high production and R-ratio have high export potential (Montana, Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas) Analysis assumes (a) only sites having capacity factor > 20% included; (a) loss of 20% and 10% of potential power for onshore and offshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference, (c) offshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of nearest shoreline.

20. 3. The future: US wind potential 20 Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106 Contiguous US annual wind energy potential, 10 15 wh Multiples of 2008 Total US Energy Consumption* Onshore622.12 Offshore, 0-20 meter1.2.041 Offshore, 20-50 m2.1.072 Offshore, 50-200 m2.2.075 Total682.321 Total 2008 US Energy consumption across all sectors is 100 Quads:

21. Long-term national planning: How wind fits in

22. Energy system: Electric, Fuels, Transportation LIQUID FUEL NATURAL GAS ELECTRIC RAIL AIR Interstate 22

23. Energy system: Today US ENERGY USE IS 69% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION US CO2 EMISSIONS IS 74% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION GREENING ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION ENERGY SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM 23

24. Energy system: Today Solar, 0.09 Nuclear, 8.45 Hydro, 2.45 Wind, 0.51 Geothermal 0.35 Natural Gas 23.84 Coal 22.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 37.13 26.33 8.58 27.39 20.9 Unused Energy (Losses) 57.07 Electric Generation 39.97 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residential 11.48 Commercial 8.58 Industrial 23.94 Trans- portation 27.86 8.45 6.82 20.54 6.95 24 LightDuty: 17.12Q Freight: 7.55Q Aviation: 3.19Q

25. Energy System: Transport goes electric! Warren Buffet's MidAmerican Energy Holdings bought 9.9% of BYD for $232 million. World's first all-electric locomotive has over 1,000 batteries, runs 24 hours on a single charge. A modified French high-speed train has set a new world speed record for a train on conventional rails of 357 mph.

26. Solar, 1.0 Nuclear, 15 Hydro, 2.95 Wind, 8.1 Geothermal 3.04 Natural Gas 23.84 Old Coal 10.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 15.13 26.33 8.58 25.7 8.5 Unused Energy (Losses) 43.0 Electric Generation 49.72 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residential 11.48 Commercial 8.58 Industrial 23.94 Trans- portation 15.5 15 6.82 20.54 6.95 A possible future INCREASE Non-CO2 12Q to 30Q USE 11Q Electric for transportation 4.5Q 26 IGCC, 3 REDUCE COAL 21Q TO 12Q REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q  15Q LightDuty: 8.56Q Freight: 3.75Q Aviation: 3.19Q

27. Infrastructure planning: Environmental Impacts 22Quads Petroleum reduction×156.4lbs/MBTU*0.4535=1560 MMT CO2 12Q Old Coal reduction×212.7lbs/MBTU*0.4535=1157 MMT CO2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CO2 REDUCTION= 2717 MMT CO2 If we achieve this worldwide by 2035, there is a 75% chance of not exceeding the 2 degree guardrail. Total US 2007 GHG 27

28. Infrastructure planning: Unit Costs 28 TechnologyOvernight cost $/kWProd cost $/MWhr (Fuel costs + environmental cost*) Solar thermal50210 Solar PV60380 Nuclear33182.00 Wind onshore19230 Wind offshore38510 Geothermal40000 Coal conventional20582.95 Clean coal (IGCC+seq)35004.50 *Environmental cost s assumed to be $1.5/MWhr, for nuclear, $3/MWhr for conventional coal, and $1.5/MWhr for clean coal.

29. Infrastructure planning: Solution Cost 29 TechnologyAdditional capacity, GW Trillion dollars Overnight costChange in annual fuel cost Solar thermal65.50.3290 Solar PV58.90.3560 Nuclear60.90.202+0.0038 Wind onshore6301.2110 Wind offshore800.3070 Geothermal1060.1810 Coal conventionalReduced0-0.0053 Clean coal (IGCC+seq)29.50.103+0.0010 Elec. Transprt.-1.0-0.264 TOTALS10313.7-0.264

30. Infrastructure planning: Solution explanation Why do we reduce production cost and emissions? 30 Because we reduced the use of combustion!   Coal-fired power plants Internal combustion engines

31. NUCLEAR Infrastructure planning: more questions GEOTHERMAL SOLAR Wind BIOMASS CLEAN-FOSSIL Where, when, & how to interconnect? 31

32. Conclusions 32 1.Wind resource not large player today. 2.Legislative landscape intent on changing that. 3.US wind energy potential: could supply 2ב08 total (100Q) energy consumption. 4.Wind must be a major player in economic solutions to global warming. 5.710 GW of wind by 2035, plus a little of all other non-CO2 resources, represents US contribution towards a feasible solution to global warming.