1. GEOG3025 Census and administrative data sources 3: Integration and future development

2. GEOG3025 Census and administrative data Lecture overview Objectives of lecture Introductory questions Census challenges Census data creation from individual records Comparison with administrative sources International comparisons Future directions

3. GEOG3025 Objectives To understand why censuses are becoming less effective To consider alternative options for large scale social data collection To explore likely routes from the present situation to the next round of censuses

4. GEOG3025 Introductory questions… Do we still need a census? Is a census viable as a means of collecting social data? Can’t we just use administrative records?

5. GEOG3025 Census challenges Declining response rates/difficulty of enumeration Rising demand for more up to date information Potential of extracting relevant data from administrative sources

6. GEOG3025 Data from census Reflections on class responses: data collection issues Coverage –Who was omitted? Accuracy –Who answered some questions incorrectly? (intentional or unintentional)

7. GEOG3025 Extract of person data

8. GEOG3025 Imputation Validation of OCR records –Missing or impossible values One Number Census methodology –Missing individuals –Missing households

9. GEOG3025 Aggregation issues Table specification prior to data collection Application of disclosure control methodology –Table level: threshold populations (40 households, 100 persons) –Small cell adjustment (rounding to 0 or 3) –Record swapping

10. GEOG3025 Table framework TotalMaleFemale : 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 Total

11. GEOG3025 ‘Unsafe’ cells TotalMaleFemale : 18-19000 20-24291514 25-29110 30-34000 35-39110 Total311714

12. GEOG3025 Record swapping TotalMaleFemale : 18-19000 20-242814 25-29220 30-34000 35-39110 Total311714

13. GEOG3025 Small cell rounding TotalMaleFemale : 18-19000 20-242814 25-29330 30-34303 35-39000 Total3417

14. Hard to code variables!

15. GEOG3025 NS-SeC National Statistics – socioeconomic classification Replaces former social class and SEG Use for Census and all official surveys Occupation-based Based on occupation and employment status

16. GEOG3025 NS-SeC: sample subdivisions Source: www.national.statistics.gov

17. GEOG3025 NS-SeC

18. GEOG3025 Interaction variables Now1 Year ago SO16 0TG SO17 2FESO14 2FE SO17 2GTSO16 3SH SO17 1NY CR2 0ASSO16 7AB

19. GEOG3025 The rise of administrative data Can provide microdata from routinely updated administrative sources Can take snapshots and produce more frequent estimates than census BUT no comprehensive administrative population register Current barriers to data linkage without explicit consent of data subjects

20. GEOG3025 CensusIreland, South Africa EDs for collection and output Census, NeSSUKPostcode, OA/SOAs; aspiration to statistical population register Short census, community survey USATIGER, blocks, communities Rolling censusFranceNeighbourhood data, commune coverage 1/5 or 1 in 5 No census, annual statistics Sweden, Netherlands Integrated registers, geographical flexibility International comparisons

21. GEOG3025 France: rolling census Small communes (<10,000) once every five years Large communes sampled 1/5 per year, to achieve full coverage over five years No conventional complete enumeration

22. GEOG3025 USA: short form and ACS Abandon long form census (approx 1/6 sample in 2000 census) Retain short form census for 2010 American Community Survey, continuously administered, covering 2.5% addresses per year, already started

23. GEOG3025 Netherlands: administrative census Statistical population register Person ID and address provide links to administrative records 2001 ‘census’ data constructed by snapshot matching of administrative registers

24. GEOG3025 Plans for UK 2011 Census Methodology essentially as in 2001 Focus enumeration effort on those areas hardest to count: greater variety of enumeration approaches Post-out and post-back of census forms Electronic form tracking system

26. GEOG3025 An integrated population statistics system? ONS consultation document autumn 2003 2011 census Integrated social survey system Statistical population register Needs address register Would require new legislation

27. GEOG3025 Lecture summary International challenges to census Consideration of census data creation Retreat from census-taking Rise of administrative data sources