1. The Collaborative Approach of Recovery Implementation Programs Todd Votteler, Ph.D. Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (800) 413-4130 www.gbra.org Incorporating Climate Change Science into the Endangered Species Act Recovery Implementation Program for the Texas Edwards Aquifer

2. Outline The Endangered Species ActThe Endangered Species Act The Edwards Aquifer Region: A Unique and Complicated EcosystemThe Edwards Aquifer Region: A Unique and Complicated Ecosystem State – Federal ChallengesState – Federal Challenges Climate ChangeClimate Change Tree-Ring ResearchTree-Ring Research

3. The Edwards Aquifer-San Antonio Segment (Karst Aquifer) -Irrigation & recharge out West -San Antonio in the Center -Major Springs in the East

4. Guadalupe River San Antonio Bay The Guadalupe River is the Primary Source of Freshwater Inflows to San Antonio Bay… Brown Shrimp Blue Crab 1.15 MAF Whooping Crane

5. A Few Facts San Antonio’s population is nearly 2 million, up from 200,000 in 1940.San Antonio’s population is nearly 2 million, up from 200,000 in 1940. Population of Texas Projected to Double by 2050.Population of Texas Projected to Double by 2050. 95% of San Antonio’s water supply comes from the Edwards Aquifer.95% of San Antonio’s water supply comes from the Edwards Aquifer. Edwards Aquifer springs provide 25% of the flow in the Guadalupe River.Edwards Aquifer springs provide 25% of the flow in the Guadalupe River. During droughts like 2005-2006 and 2008- 2009 as much 80% of the flow in the Guadalupe River comes from the springs.During droughts like 2005-2006 and 2008- 2009 as much 80% of the flow in the Guadalupe River comes from the springs.

6. Good Times

7. Bad Times 1956, Drought of Record. Fountain Darters Wiped Out at Comal Springs. Texas Begins Water Planning.

8. What is a Recovery Implementation Program? Recovery Implementation Programs (RIP) are an option under the Endangered Species Act that bring together a broad group of stakeholders including Federal, State, and private interests to work together to recover endangered species.Recovery Implementation Programs (RIP) are an option under the Endangered Species Act that bring together a broad group of stakeholders including Federal, State, and private interests to work together to recover endangered species. Through a RIP, federal funds can be passed through a federal agency to accomplish Program goals.Through a RIP, federal funds can be passed through a federal agency to accomplish Program goals. RIPs are a potential solution for intractable Endangered Species Act issues.RIPs are a potential solution for intractable Endangered Species Act issues.

9. Typical Activities Habitat restorationHabitat restoration Captive propagation and augmentationCaptive propagation and augmentation Research & monitoringResearch & monitoring Development of flow recommendationsDevelopment of flow recommendations Management of non-native speciesManagement of non-native species Education, and public involvementEducation, and public involvement

10. Edwards Aquifer The goal is to recover federally listed species dependent on the Edwards Aquifer while water development proceeds in compliance with all applicable Federal and State laws.The goal is to recover federally listed species dependent on the Edwards Aquifer while water development proceeds in compliance with all applicable Federal and State laws.

11. Recovery Implementation Program for the Edwards Aquifer The Texas Legislature created a RIP process in May 2007.The Texas Legislature created a RIP process in May 2007. The Texas Legislature’s RIP process may set a precedent for other states:The Texas Legislature’s RIP process may set a precedent for other states: –Who governs the process; –What questions are considered; and –The schedule and other guidelines Participants include state agencies, river authorities, groundwater districts, cities, industries, farmers, environmental organizations and others.Participants include state agencies, river authorities, groundwater districts, cities, industries, farmers, environmental organizations and others.

12. Loaiciga et al (1996) identified Edwards as one of the most vulnerable regional watersheds to climate changeLoaiciga et al (1996) identified Edwards as one of the most vulnerable regional watersheds to climate change –Region is dependent on aquifer –Strong climate & hydrology link –Climate record shows large variability –Groundwater pumping increasing –Aquifer supports habitats & species facing extinction –Water institutions mired in uncertainty “If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades (Seager et al, 2007).”“If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades (Seager et al, 2007).” Climate Change & the Edwards

13. Drought of Record is when natural hydrological conditions provided the least amount of water supply.Drought of Record is when natural hydrological conditions provided the least amount of water supply. For much of Texas the Drought of Record is drought from 1947 to 1957.For much of Texas the Drought of Record is drought from 1947 to 1957. State water plan must be based on the Drought of Record.State water plan must be based on the Drought of Record. Texas Water Planning is Based on the Drought of Record

14. The answer depends on the term of the Incidental Take Permit resulting from the RIP.The answer depends on the term of the Incidental Take Permit resulting from the RIP. If the term of the Incidental Take Permit is less than 15 years, then climate change might not be considered.If the term of the Incidental Take Permit is less than 15 years, then climate change might not be considered. However, if the term is less than 25 years is the process worth the effort?However, if the term is less than 25 years is the process worth the effort? This question faces those developing HCPs across the country.This question faces those developing HCPs across the country. Will Climate Change be Incorporated into the Edwards RIP?

15. Texas lawmakers and water managers are skeptical about climate change.Texas lawmakers and water managers are skeptical about climate change. Is there another way to incorporate climate variability into the RIP without focusing on climate change?Is there another way to incorporate climate variability into the RIP without focusing on climate change? Possibly, by focusing on historical variability.Possibly, by focusing on historical variability. Water managers rely upon historical drought and flood information.Water managers rely upon historical drought and flood information. Will Climate Change be Incorporated into the Edwards RIP?

16. Trees produce a narrow growth ring under drought conditions and a wider ring under normal and wet conditions.Trees produce a narrow growth ring under drought conditions and a wider ring under normal and wet conditions. Chronologies are based on small core samples extracted from living trees & cross- sections cut from dead logs.Chronologies are based on small core samples extracted from living trees & cross- sections cut from dead logs. The tree-ring record is compared to Weather Service climatic data to find out the seasonal response of the trees.The tree-ring record is compared to Weather Service climatic data to find out the seasonal response of the trees. Tree-Ring Study

17. Objectives for Tree-Ring Study Less is known about Texas in this field than Eastern & Western US or Mexico.Less is known about Texas in this field than Eastern & Western US or Mexico. Local chronologies better than distant chronologies.Local chronologies better than distant chronologies. We are focusing on baldcypress at several locations in south-central Texas.We are focusing on baldcypress at several locations in south-central Texas. We are hoping to produce a 500 year chronology for south-central Texas.We are hoping to produce a 500 year chronology for south-central Texas. Study Participants:Study Participants: –Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority –University of Arkansas, Tree-Ring Lab –University of Texas, School of Geosciences –Texas Forest Service –Texas Parks & Wildlife Department –Individual Landowners

18. Summary The Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Plan is likely to provide a model that other states will follow to deal with their intractable Endangered Species Act disputes.The Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Plan is likely to provide a model that other states will follow to deal with their intractable Endangered Species Act disputes. If the region focuses on preparing for decade long droughts identified in the tree-ring study will the process satisfy a requirement that the plan account for climate change?If the region focuses on preparing for decade long droughts identified in the tree-ring study will the process satisfy a requirement that the plan account for climate change?

19. Questions?

22. Previous Tree-Ring Study for Edwards Aquifer Region; 1537-1995 “The 1950s drought was very bad, even when viewed in a long-term context. The reconstructions also indicate that there may have been periods when drought was more protracted and the impact might have been considerably worse. It would appear unwise for civil authorities to assume that the 1950s drought represents the worst case scenario to be used for planning purposes in water resources management in the South Central and Edwards Plateau climate divisions of Texas.”

23. Why this RIP Unique First RIP fully based on an HCP.First RIP fully based on an HCP. First RIP where federal water management is not part of the program.First RIP where federal water management is not part of the program. First RIP developed to address aquifer management.First RIP developed to address aquifer management. First RIP in a private lands state.First RIP in a private lands state. First RIP to include a coastal/estuary ecosystem in the project area.First RIP to include a coastal/estuary ecosystem in the project area. First RIP mandated in state legislation.First RIP mandated in state legislation.

24. Tree-Ring Chronologies 2 Baldcypress: LA: 996 –1988; Eastern TX: 1254 –19932 Baldcypress: LA: 996 –1988; Eastern TX: 1254 –1993 4 Douglas-fir: 2 TX: 1537–1992, 1473 – 1992; 2 NM: 1362–1989, 137BC–19924 Douglas-fir: 2 TX: 1537–1992, 1473 – 1992; 2 NM: 1362–1989, 137BC–1992 1 NM ponderosa pine: 1391–19871 NM ponderosa pine: 1391–1987 3 NM Pinyon pine: 1410 –1987; 1411– 1972; 1478 –19723 NM Pinyon pine: 1410 –1987; 1411– 1972; 1478 –1972 6 post oak: 3 from living trees, 3 from historic buildings; 1648 –19956 post oak: 3 from living trees, 3 from historic buildings; 1648 –1995

25. Current Water RIP Programs Middle Rio Grande ESA Collaborative ProgramMiddle Rio Grande ESA Collaborative Program Upper Colorado RIPUpper Colorado RIP San Juan RIPSan Juan RIP Platte River Endangered Species PartnershipPlatte River Endangered Species Partnership Lower Colorado Multi-species Conservation ProgramLower Colorado Multi-species Conservation Program June Sucker RIPJune Sucker RIP