1. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 World Population Growth

2. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Population Dynamics

3. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Recall a Point Made by Malthus: Population always has the potential to increase more rapidly than the production of food supplies. Boserup’s Theory: Historically within human populations production tends to Expand to the level demanded by population Population Dynamics Population Growth: Birthrate minus mortality Population Pressure: The tendency for population levels to expand to the carrying capacity. This is often translated into social pressure to increase production Fertility Rate: Live Births per 1000 women aged 15-44 in a given year. Birth Rate: The number of live births per thousand in a given year. Fecundity: The physiological capacity to produce a live child.

4. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Comparison of pelvic apertures in five primates

5. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Human, Australopithecine, and Chimpanzee Birth Processes

6. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Key Points of Natural Selection in The Human Life Cycle n Implantation of the Zygote ~ first three weeks n Early development of the embryo ~ first trimester n Birth ~ infants n Birth ~ mothers 14 ~ 30 years n First two years ~ disease in infants n Late Adulthood ~ cumulative disease load, dental decay

7. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Care of infants and children –Heavy work loads and restricted diets for pregnant women –Direct Abortion (universal phenomena) –Infanticide Indirect Direct

8. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Treatment of women and girls –Forced or incidental malnutrition –Polygyny –Surgical mutilation n Intensity and duration of breast- feeding –Extended Amenorrhea due to breast feeding –Lowered Fucundity

9. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Frequency of, and prohibitions against, intercourse –Social proscriptions against sexual intercourse –Restrictions on the age of marriage

10. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Important Factors Governing Fertility Rates n Age at first menses n Age of marriage/sexual activity n Disease Load n Nutritional Health n Mortality

11. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Foraging Reproduction n Moderate death and birth rates n Value of children: moderate n Birth control low fat diet for women prolonged breastfeeding induced abortion n Few reproduction specialists

12. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Agricultural Reproduction n High growth rate n Value of children: high n Increased reliance on direct means of birth control herbs induced abortion n Midwives, herbalists

13. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Industrial Reproduction n Negative growth for industrialized countries n Value of children: mixed n High growth in developing countries n Birth control grounded in science in vitro fertilization n Highly developed reproduction specialists

14. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture’s affect on Reproduction Family traditions…. Government policies…. International organizations…. ….influence: when to start having sex how often who with how many children to have

15. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 n 450 plant species worldwide contain natural substances that can be used to control fertility n Religious, economic and social factors affect decisions to induce abortion Fertility Control

16. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Peas as Birth Control? Historically population growth in Tibet has been stable Tibetans subsisted on barley and peas When mice were fed a diet of 20% peas, litter sizes dropped by half When mice are fed a diet of 30% peas, they failed to reproduce at all

17. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death Infanticide The deliberate killing of an offspring due to child deformity or sickness if child fails to meet parental expectation because of poverty

18. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death Suicide.... Catholicism ….is a sin Buddhism ….has been used to make political statements Asia and S Pacific ….is a noble act Social changes, brought about by industrialization, are often not matched by people’s ability to attain new goals leading to high suicide rates (especially among youth).

19. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death n Spousal Abuse n Warfare –accounts for high proportion of male deaths in some horticultural societies n Ethnocide –destruction of a culture n Genocide –physical extermination of a cultural group

20. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8 7 6 5 2 1 4 3 Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague 9 10 11 12 A.D. 3000 A.D. 4000 A.D. 5000 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 2100 Future Billions World Population Growth Through History Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

21. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 123 (1930) 33 (1960) 14 (1974) 13 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 15 (2028) 26 (2054) World Population Growth, in Billions Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).

22. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

23. Population of the United States, by Age and Sex, 1950-2050 (millions) malefemale

24. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

29. Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions MaleFemaleMaleFemale 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-9 0-4 Age Age Distribution of the World’s Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

30. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Desire for Smaller Families Women With Two Children Who Say They Want No More Children Percent Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys, 1988-2000.

31. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

32. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Billions Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries More Developed Countries Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

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34. Trends in Aging, by World Region Population Ages 65 and Older Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

35. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Millions Percent increase per year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

36. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002. Trends in Urbanization, by Region

37. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Women of Childbearing Age Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

38. Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 U.S. Population Density per Square Mile

39. Regional HIV/AIDS statistics and features, end of 2002 * The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 2002, using 2002 population numbers ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa & Middle East South and South- East Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America Caribbean Eastern Europe & Central Asia Western Europe North America Australia & New Zealand TOTAL late ’70s early ’80s late ’80s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s early ’90s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s 29.4 million 550 000 6.0 million 1.2 million 1.5 million 440 000 1.2 million 570 000 980 000 15 000 42 million 8.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 58% 55% 36% 24% 30% 50% 27% 25% 20% 7% 50% Hetero Hetero, IDU IDU, Hetero, MSM MSM, IDU, Hetero Hetero, MSM IDU MSM, IDU MSM, IDU, Hetero MSM Epidemi c started Adults & children living with HIV/AIDS Adult prevalenc e rate * % of HIV- positive adults who are women Main mode(s) of transmission for those living with HIV/AIDS ** Adults & children newly infected with HIV 3.5 million 83 000 700 000 270 000 150 000 60 000 250 000 30 000 45 000 500 5 million

40. Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002 Total: 42 million Western Europe 570 000 North Africa & Middle East 550 000 Sub-Saharan Africa 29.4 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.2 million South & South-East Asia 6 million Australia & New Zealand 15 000 North America 980 000 Caribbean 440 000 Latin America 1.5 million East Asia & Pacific 1.2 million

41. Estimated number of adults and children newly infected with HIV during 2002 Total: 5 million Western Europe 30 000 North Africa & Middle East 83 000 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.5 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 250 000 East Asia & Pacific 270 000 South & South-East Asia 700 000 Australia & New Zealand500 North America 45 000 Caribbean 60 000 Latin America 150 000

42. Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002 Total: 3.1 million Western Europe 8 000 North Africa & Middle East 37 000 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 25 000 East Asia & Pacific 45 000 South & South-East Asia 440 000 Australia & New Zealand<100 North America 15 000 Caribbean 42 000 Latin America 60 000

43. Children (<15 years) estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002 Western Europe 5 000 North Africa & Middle East 40 000 sub-Saharan Africa 2.8 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 16 000 East Asia & Pacific 4 000 South & South-East Asia 240 000 Australia & New Zealand < 200 North America 10 000 Caribbean 20 000 Latin America 45 000 Total: 3.2 million