1. What is climate change? Climate change refers to the changes of the global climatic conditions over time globally or regionally. Climate change is not a new occurrence and has occurred several times in the history of the Earth over long spaces of time. Current climate change is due to large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) being released into the atmosphere by humans in a short time frame. Atmospheric CO 2 levels have increased from 300 ppm to almost 400 ppm since the advent of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s. This increase in GHG levels has led to the atmosphere retaining more heat, which otherwise would have escaped into space, resulting in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere increasing by 0.8°C in only 100 years. A further increase of 1.4°C to 5.8°C is projected by global climate models by 2100. Sources of GHG emissions There are six major human induced GHGs. These include CO 2; methane (CH 4 ); nitrous oxide (N 2 O); and three fluorinated gases (FC, PFC, SF 6 ). The sources of these gases mainly emanate from burning of fossil fuels in coal power plants and transport vehicles; cement factories; deforestation ; land use change; agriculture and refrigeration and other manufacturing processes. The lifetimes of the gases vary significantly. Studies show that CO 2 remains in the atmosphere for approximately 50 years while some of the FCs lasting up to 50 000 years and having up to 30 000 times the potency of CO 2 as a GHG. Sources of GHGs in South Africa South Africa is one of the higher GHG emitting countries per capita in the world, producing 440 megatons CO 2 eq or 1.2% of the worlds GHG. This is due to half of emissions being generated by the electricity sector which is coal dominated, producing large amounts of CO 2. SASOL also contributes another 10% to the total, and it is the world’s highest single point emitter. SA produces 10 tons of CO 2 per capita which is about 40% higher than the global average and highest among the other developing countries that are coal-based including China (3.8 tons/capita) and India (1.5 tons/capita). Predicted temperature increases The climate models predict that the atmospheric temperatures will rise between 1.4 and 5.8°C by the end of the 21 st century, depending on the levels of GHG emissions reached and whether these levels can be stabilised and reduced. These climate models present possible scenarios for climate change with increasing temperatures but it is important to know that there are many uncertainties and unknowns with the future being highly unpredictable. For more details on these impacts and various projects surrounding climate change see www.fco.gov.uk/4degrees. Scientists, anthropologists, policy makers, civil society and leaders throughout the globe are working together to understand these impacts so that we can mitigate and adapt to climate change.www.fco.gov.uk/4degrees building resilience to climate change www.cap.org.za

2. Predicted impacts of climate change in SA Rising temperatures will have many possible impacts such as shifts in crop seasons affecting food security and changing the distribution of disease vectors thus putting more people at risk. Temperature increases will enhance rates of extinction for many species. Changing rainfall patterns will effect water resources which are already under pressure. Increasing sea levels mean greater risk of storm surge and wave damage to coastlines, particularly low-lying areas where there is destroyed natural vegetation. At 400ppm, between 1 and 3°C increases are expected causing heat stress. Average rainfall is projected to decrease by 5-10% or more in areas like the Succulent Karoo. The east of the country is projected to become wetter, and the west drier. The distribution of rainfall may change and an increase in severe weather events. There are also combinations of both drought and flash floods predicted. Nevertheless, predictions are uncertain and we are not aware of the thresholds which our systems will reach. These impacts will affect all facets of our society and will require a fundamental shift in the way we think and operate particularly in sectors such as urban planning, agriculture, catchment management and conservation. Therefore, we must not only aim to reduce our emissions and mitigate climate change but also adapt to these changes using strategies that are flexible enough to cope with a range of climate conditions. There are lots of opportunities to make communities and habitats more resilient to these changes and depending on the impacts for a specific area, innovative adaptation measures will vary. CAP supports ecosystem-based adaptation approaches such as reforestation; the restoration of soil and water services; the creation of natural corridors - all of which help secure food, health and livelihoods for people and species to adapt to these changes. The Climate Action Partnership (CAP) CAP as an alliance of conservation NGOs is focused on restoring and maintaining ecosystems as a method to assist us mitigate climate change but also help nature and communities adapt to climate change. To find out more about our projects, visit our website. The global impacts of 1°C rise Small mountain glaciers disappear, threatening water supplies for 50 million people Cereal yields in temperate regions increase slightly Climate-related diseases (such as diarrhoae, cardio-vascular and infectious diseases) increase but winter mortality in Northern Europe and US drops 80% of coral reefs are bleached The Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation weakens The global impacts of 2°C rise Water availability in parts of southern Africa and Mediterranean decline by 20- 30% Crop yields in Africa drop by 5% - 10% Risk of malaria increases significantly 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding Arctic species run a high risk of extinction Greenland ice sheet begins an irreversible melt Up to 30% of species at risk of extinction Sea level rise threatens small islands and low-lying coastal areas The global impacts of 3°C rise Southern Europe experiences serious drought every 10 years 1 to 4 billion more people experience water shortages; up to 5 billion gain water but suffer flood damage 1 to 3 million more people die from malnutrition The risk of abrupt changes in monsoons climbs West Antarctic ice sheet and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation will collapse changing ocean currents The global impacts of 4°C rise Rain water availability in southern Africa, Amazon basin and Mediterranean could drop by 30% - 50% African agricultural yields drop by 15% - 35% 80 million more Africans are exposed to malaria 7 to 300 million people are affected by coastal flooding The global impacts of 5°C rise Some of the large Himalayan glaciers disappear Ocean acidity continues to rise; marine ecosystems are seriously disrupted www.cap.org.za For more information please contact: Sarshen Marais Climate Action Partnership Manager s.marais@conservation.org tel: +27 21 799 8834 fax: +27 21 762 6838 Centre for Biodiversity Conservation Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens Private Bag X7 Claremont 7735 5 4 3 2 1