1. Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study Overview January 28 th Webinar Dave Corbus National Wind Technology Center National Renewable Energy Lab

2. Eastern Wind Integration& Transmission Study Objectives Evaluate the power system impacts and transmission associated with increasing wind capacity to 20% and 30% of retail electric energy sales in the study area by 2024 ; Impacts include operating due to variability and uncertainty of wind; reliability Build upon prior wind integration studies and related technical work; Coordinate with JCSP and current regional power system study work; Produce meaningful, broadly supported results through a technically rigorous, inclusive study process.

3. Region Definition Study area includes: PJM Midwest ISO Mid-Continent Area Power Pool Southwest Power Pool TVA New York ISO ISO New England Other interested parties

4. Project Organization DOE Sponsor NREL Project Manager Technical Review Committee Stakeholders AWS Scientific Wind Modeling EnerNex Team EnerNex/MISO/Ventyx Project Team - Analysis

5. Key Issues & Questions include What system operational impacts and costs are imposed by wind generation variability and uncertainty? What are the benefits from long distance transmission that accesses multiple wind resources that are geographically diverse? What are the benefits from long distance transmission that move large quantities of remote wind energy to urban markets? How do remote wind resources compare to local wind resources?

6. Key Issues & Questions include How much does geographical diversity help reduce system variability and uncertainty? What is the role and value of wind forecasting? What benefit does balancing area cooperation or consolidation bring to wind variability and uncertainty management? How does wind generation capacity value affect reliability?

7. Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) The 2007/2008 Joint Coordinated System plan included MISO, PJM, SPP,TVA, MAPP, NYISO,ISO-NE plus other interested parties The JCSP performed a long term planning study incorporating both economic (2024) and reliability (2018) analysis of system performance for the combined JCSP areas The EWITS uses some of the model assumptions including the generation expansion (EGEAS modeling) Final summary report in progress

8. Wind Integration Methods & Best Practices Capture system characteristics and response through operational simulations and modeling; Capture wind deployment scenario geographic diversity through synchronized weather simulation; Match with actual historic utility load and load forecasts; Use actual large wind plant power statistical data for short- term regulation and ramping; Examine wind variation in combination with load variations; Utilize wind forecasting best practice and combine wind forecast errors with load forecast errors; Examine actual costs independent of tariff design structure. Examine impacts of BA consolidation and fast markets.

9. Key Tasks- Eastern Wind Integration & Transmission Study Mesoscale modeling Transmission Study Integration Study

10. Key Tasks - Mesoscale Modeling –Identify wind sites –Develop high quality wind resource data sets for the wind integration study area Mesoscale modeling 3 years of time series data (2004-2006) 10-minute data at 2 km spatial resolution –Develop wind power plant outputs

11. Mesoscale Grids

13. 579 GWs of Wind Sites from Wind Site Selection process for EWITS

14. Offshore Wind Great resource Well correlated with load and close to load centers More expensive!

15. Deep Water Wind Turbine Development Current Technology

16. Supply v. CF

17. Size Distribution Maximum onshore plant sizes were normally distributed between 100 MW and 1000 MW Additional “mega” sites (>1000MW)

18. Power Conversion Testing Approach Power conversion takes into account –Turbine power curve for site IEC class –Air density, turbulence –Wake and non-wake losses –Time filtering to replicate the “spatial smoothing” of the output of a real wind plant Plant NameState Rated Capacity (MW) Turbine Type Hub Height (m) Blue Canyon IOklahoma74.25NM72 (1.65MW)67 m Lake BentonMinnesota103.5Zond 75051.2 m Storm Lake IIowa112.5Zond 75063 m Validation Sites

19. Validation Example Diurnal Patterns

20. Validation Example Mean Ramps

21. Mesoscale Output/ Power Conversion 47.02225 -68.80990 DATETIME80M SPEEDDIRECTIONDENSITYTKE 2004010100104.89790270.096221.256250.03305 2004010100204.94108268.343601.255270.02336 2004010100304.81025267.335971.255090.01175 2004010100404.89001267.152101.254680.00649 2004010100504.55865265.432861.254150.00473 2004010101004.70651265.824011.254800.00252 2004010101104.84289269.145751.254610.00214 2004010101204.85045266.786681.254620.00247 2004010101304.76209266.212191.254400.00268 2004010101404.74387263.264741.254240.00220 2004010101504.89790260.241611.253840.00246 2004010102004.93185256.341191.253210.00351 2004010102104.87496252.868681.25324 0.00413 ….

22. Why 20% and 30% Wind?

23. Regional Wind Requirements

24. Scenario Development and Siting Four Different Scenarios –Three 20% and one 30% wind scenarios Scenario that emphasizes development of local resources with lower capacity factors Scenario that emphasizes high capacity factor wind development in the Midwest with larger transmission component All of four scenarios require a lot of wind and transmission! –Some offshore wind required NREL/AWS provided 700 GWs of wind plants and wind sites for the scenarios were picked from these –Scenario sites were selected from the “Superset” of 700 GWs of sites

25. Four EWITS Scenarios Scenario 1, 20% wind penetration – “Lowest Cost Wind”: Utilizes high quality wind resources in the Great Plans, with other development in the east where good wind resources exist. Total capacity in MISO, MAPP, and SPP is approximately 185 GW Scenario 2, 20% wind penetration – “Hybrid, with Offshore”: Some wind generation in the Great Plains is moved east, with capacity increased in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Some offshore development in the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic.

26. Four EWITS Scenarios Scenario 3, 20% wind penetration – “Load-weighted Wind Development, Aggressive Offshore”: More wind is moved east toward load centers, necessitating even more utilization of off-shore resources. Scenario 4, 30% wind penetration – “Aggressive On- and Off-shore”. Meeting the 30% energy penetration level uses a substantial amount of the higher quality wind resource. Lots of offshore is needed to reach the target energy level, and the capacity in MISO, MAPP, and SPP goes back up to 188 GW.

27. EWITS Scenario Installed Wind Capacity by Region

28. 20% wind Scenarios

29. 30% Wind Scenario

30. Scenarios and Siting Things to keep in mind during the study How much capacity can be reasonably exported (imported) at each area? Assume constant energy between scenarios rather than constant number of plants: –Typical Great Plains capacity factor/Ohio C.F.= 45/30 = 1.5 –~Roughly 2 MW of wind in Great Plains produces the same energy as 3 MW of wind in Ohio.

31. EWITS Scenario 1 Generation Siting

32. EWITS Scenario 2 Generation Siting

33. EWITS Scenario 3 Generation Siting

34. EWITS Scenario 4 Generation Siting

35. Key Tasks- Develop Transmission Plan –JCSP reference future and 20% wind and 30% wind scenarios Builds on JCSP work –Analyze different transmission alternatives for different wind scenarios 765 AC and HVDC High in-state wind versus high wind exports

36. Develop Preliminary Transmission Plans Use JCSP 20% wind scenario transmission overlay as the starting point to develop initial plans for EWITS four scenarios Determine type, size and route of transmission lines Determine costs and land requirements Determine potential substation and DC terminal locations

37. Scenario 1 20% Lowest Cost Wind

38. Scenario 1 Constrained Case Annual Gen Weighted LMP

39. Scenario 1 Constrained Case Annual Load Weighted LMP

40. Scenario 1 Generation Difference: Copper Sheet Minus Constrained Cases

41. Scenario 1 Top 24 Interfaces with Largest Annual Energy Difference

42. Joint Coordinated System Plan Overlay – 20% Wind Scenario

43. 4. Wind Integration Study Evaluate operating impacts –Regulation –Load Following –Unit Commitment Evaluate reliability impacts (ELCC/LOLP) EWITS is first and foremost a wind integration study –What are the integration costs and issues for 20 and 30% wind? –How is other generation affected?

44. Production Simulation Methodology  Case comparison approach –Actual wind vs. “ideal” wind –Objective is to determine relative value of two resources providing same amount of annual/daily energy  Issues –Approach is established as best way to accomplish objective –Not been attempted on this scale before

45. Hourly Modeling  Objective –Chronological simulation of operational planning and power system operation –Mimic Day-ahead unit commitment and scheduling based on load and wind generation forecasts Real-time operation with actual wind and load  How do we simulate the Eastern Interconnection in 2024? –Period-ahead planning (e.g. day-ahead unit commitment) –Real-time operations (at minimum of hourly granularity) –Operational structures Conventional control areas? Existing markets?

46. Hourly Modeling  PROMOD capabilities –Reserve modeling Types Treatment (e.g. variable by hour?) –Commit based on forecast, simulation based on actual quantities? –Features for treatment of uncertainty?  Modeling Transactions –Day-ahead and “real time” –Relevant program features

47. Intra-Hour Impacts  Objective –Determine operating reserves required to manage control area with wind generation –Feed requirements forward into hourly modeling  Variability of wind generation adds to existing variability, increasing requirements for RT ancillary services  Analytical approach –Based on high-resolution (< 10 min) load and wind generation data

48. LOLP and ELCC Analysis  Objective –Determine contribution of wind generation to Eastern Interconnection reliability –Assess reliability value of transmission only(?)  Issues –Transmission overlay could have significant impact on existing LOLE zones –Transmission will serve as capacity resources for some zones; may make some zones very reliable, such that ELCC of wind would be minimal  Predecessor tasks –Requires PROMOD to determine new area import limits –GE MARS model to be developed from PowerBase –Resource constraints may necessitate staging

49. Reliability Analysis  GE MARS –Monte-Carlo based chronological reliability simulation –Now in use at MISO  Objectives –Calculate ELCC for wind generation based on comparative LOLE cases –Zone-by-zone basis  Input data –Network, resource, and load data input developed from PowerBase –Wind as load modifier

50. Downloading EWITS Wind Data http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/ http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/ Download Time-series Data All data (using ftp site) EWITS ftp site (ftp://ftp2.nrel.gov/pub/ewits) Instructions for ftp Data for individual sites using interactive website EWITS Interactive Website Frequently-Asked Questions (FAQs) about time-series data EWITS FAQ

51. Downloading EWITS Wind Data EWITS Interactive Website / EWITS Interactive Website /

52. Eastern Wind Integration & Transmission Study Schedule Nov 07 – Feb 08Study Development March 2008Award Wind Mesoscale Modeling Contract July 2008Award Wind Integration Contract April – Oct 2008Develop Wind Data Sets Sept 08 – June 2009Evaluate Operating & Reliability Impacts; Develop Transmission Plan August 2009Complete Study

53. Your Input is Important! EWITS Website - http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/ http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/ Suggestions on questions to address in study or other comments/input Contact Dave Corbus at David_Corbus@nrel.gov (303- 384-6966) or Matt Schuerger at MattSchuerger@earthlink.net (651-699-4971)David_Corbus@nrel.gov MattSchuerger@earthlink.net