1. Wildlife Counts in North West Namibia
Jo Tagg & Greg Stuart-Hill

2. This presentation highlights the key elements in developing and implementing an appropriate wildlife census
The challenges include meshing a diversity of stakeholders and technologies:
Stakeholders
Committed local communities
Government departments
Conservation NGOs
Technologies
Pen and paper
Boot leather
Satellite imagery
GIS

3. North West Namibia - a little background
Encompasses northern part of Namib Desert
Arid, mountainous and spectacular landscapes
Fifteen registered and soon-to-be registered conservancies and two tourism concession areas
Large, open system with considerable movement of wildlife
Remote areas with often difficult access

4. The objectives of CBNRM in Namibia
The Community-Based Natural Resource Management programme is a joint venture between government, NGOs and communities, which aims to:
promote wise and sustainable use of natural resources and encourage biodiversity conservation
devolve rights over and responsibilities for wildlife to rural communities and create income generation opportunities
encourage and assist communities to acquire skills to manage their area sustainably and actively pilot their own future
These objectives are achieved through the formation of Conservancies…

5. Where are conservancies in Namibia?
Around 40,000 km2, representing 5 % of Namibia, is now under conservancy management
Over 27,000 rural people live within conservancies
Between 1995 and 2000, conservancies received income and benefits of N$8.5 million (approx. US$0.9 million)

6. Reasons why information is needed
Through conservancies, local people have now assumed responsibility for managing the wildlife in the region.
One of the most basic requirements is game census tool that will:
Objectives
Reasons why information is needed
1. Estimate the Numbers of game
How many?
For:
setting reasonable hunting/capture quotas;
estimating stocking rates to manage competition with livestock and protect veld;
determining the value of wildlife in the Conservancy.
2. Produce Game Distribution maps.
Where are they?
For land-use planning (Zonation), it is important to identify areas of high game concentrations. Also to see how these distributions change in future years in reaction to rainfall or human factors such as water distribution or settlement .
3. Monitoring Population Change (“Trend”)
Is wildlife increasing or decreasing?
With successive censuses, graphs can be drawn showing population changes of each species (e.g. are springbok increasing or decreasing?). This will tell managers whether or not they are achieving their game management goals and consequently indicate if it is necessary to change management strategies.

7. The operational challenges
Develop a count method which:
is cost effective, sustainable and repeatable
meets the objectives of conservancies and allows individual units to contribute to the important regional picture
balances local ownership and scientific accuracy, and
is appropriate to this extremely remote and rugged area of some 5.2 million hectares
Vehicle-based road count developed
In 2000 a vehicle-based road count was piloted, one by one, in seven conservancies.
In 2001 and 2002 the entire area was counted as a single event over 16 days.
The count involves 18 community organisations, Government, support NGOs and the private sector: a total of about 220 individuals.
A total of 119 routes, with a combined length of about 6,500 km are counted.

8. Methods Remember, the method must meet all three objectives: i.e.
The road counts will add value rather than replace the other methods
Works well for common plains game but will not give good results for all species (smaller secretive sp, nocturnal sp, and sp in mountains).
Other monitoring methods (e.g. aerial census, foot patrols, specialist species monitoring) and local knowledge also important.
The road-count was designed so that local people can do this count with minimum outside assistance (e.g. borrowing a few vehicles with drivers once a year).
Each route was planned with the local community. These have become permanent routes and will be resurveyed in future years!
Remember, the method must meet all three objectives:
i.e.
Population numbers
Wildlife distributions
Population trends over time

9. FIELD RULES
For determining game NUMBERS
1.   Centre line (the road and immediately next to the road) are priority areas for searching.
2.   Distance must be to the animal before it runs away
3.   Distance must be at right angles to the road
4.   Distance is to center of groups of animals (before the group moves away)
5.   Where the route travels next to a fence only the animals inside the fence are counted (the route distance is then halved for that section of the route)
6.   Routes must represent all habitats proportionally (i.e. also count low density areas)
7.   Measure strip width per route
8.  Only count adults and sub-adults - make a note of numbers of newly born juveniles (or newly hatched chicks – ostriches)   
For TREND analysis, a number of additional rules were added:
 9.    Fixed routes will be used for subsequent counts
10.  Start time is at sunrise
11.  No binoculars to be used (knowing that leads to underestimation of numbers)
12.  Always count from the back of an open bakkie
13.  Speed must never exceed 35 km/hr
For Game distributions, an additional rule was added:
 14.  Location of each sighting is mapped using the 2km x 2km grid map

10. Some comment on estimating populations
The road-count data are analyzed in two different ways:
As a Strip-Count: provides a quick field-based population estimate - ideal for the conservancies or concession holders.
Using Distance ©: more technical but more accurate - appropriate to regional population estimates and is done back in Windhoek.
Both methods use 'Correction-Factors' to estimate the true game populations: i.e. the numbers of animals counted is multiplied by the correction factors.
The next few slides discuss these two approaches in determining game population numbers

11. Strip count methodology to estimate populations
ROAD
Area Represented
Area sampled
STRIP WIDTH
Zone 1
Correction factor = number of times area sampled fits into the area represented
Each area is divided up into count zones. Certain areas are excluded on the basis that no route adequately covers such terrain.

12. Distance based methodology to estimate populations
ROAD
Area Represented
Area sampled
STRIP WIDTH for Springbok
Zone 1
STRIP WIDTH for Elephant
Similar in concept to the transect method
but
It accounts for the differences between species
(i.e. it is easier to see an elephant than a springbok!)
also
It accounts for the difference in terrain
(i.e. effective strip width changes depending on terrain!)
It accounts for missing animals in the strip
(i.e. not every animal is seen even within the effective strip width!)
BUT
Remember the rules!
As sighting profiles are built up for each species, more sophisticated DISTANCE © analysis will be used to determine populations.

13. Key components of the wildlife counts:
Planning
Count zones
Route maps
Zonations derived from
satellite images
Routes planned from orthophotos
GIS generated planning maps
Undertaking
N/W Namibia
5 million ha
Reporting
Gemsbok Distribution
Populations estimated
using spatial analyses
Distributions mapped
All activities are underpinned by participation and partnerships

14. Planning the count involves:
Local mapping of conservancy tracks and features
Accessing and bringing national level data to local communities
Identifying routes – local knowledge is the key
Zonation – satellite images and orthophotos allow insights of habitats in inaccessible areas. Zonation is done manually by combining simple GIS techniques with local knowledge
Production of individual route maps for field work
Developing map reading skills

15. Undertaking the count:
Logistics of the count are done at conservancy level
Count teams use route maps which have an orthophoto backdrop overlaid with the route as well as other tracks and point features
Clip boards and data sheets used

16. Reporting involves: Conservancy-level analysis Regional-level analysis
Field analysis and feedback meetings immediately following the count (local communities, NGO and Govt representatives)
Reporting involves:
Regional-level analysis
Regional analysis and reporting workshop held some months following the count (NRWG, regional NGO and regional MET representatives)
Further scientific and CBNRM programmatic analysis is conducted at central level (national government and NACSO)

17. Hand drawn trend charts
1. Conservancy-level analysis
Meetings are held with conservancy representatives immediately after each count:
Distribution and numbers sighted are discussed and local insights given
Population estimates are made using correction factors and local knowledge
Trend graphs are completed – these are completed manually and remain with the conservancy. Actual numbers sighted per 100km driven are used and thus are uninfluenced by correction factors.
Hand drawn trend charts
Distribution maps

18. Distribution change maps
2. Regional-level analysis
Population estimates
Data for common species subjected to DISTANCE analysis
Technical support people from Government, NGOs and the Windhoek-based technical team discuss population estimates for each conservancy. Individuals with local knowledge in each count area take the lead
The group agrees upon population estimates for the region and compiles a report in poster format which is completed and printed at the workshop
Regional population trends produced on the basis of actual number of animals seen per 100km driven
Distribution maps and distribution maps generated by GIS
Distribution maps
Trend charts
Year 1
Year 10
Distribution change maps

19. Regional report for 2002:
Regional Database

20. At a central level…
The data are captured into a database which has been designed to:
produce automated reports for each conservancy. These are circulated to local level stakeholders to aid local level decision making such as setting harvest quotas
produce an automated report for the region. This is used by Government to verify and adjust the quota applications of individual conservancies so that they are compatible with regional game population trends
link to a GIS to produce current game distribution maps and distribution change maps (comparing current to previous years counts)
make data readily accessible for:
sophisticated analysis such as comparing wildlife distributions with ‘rainfall’ distribution (using NDVI satellite imagery) or measuring the impact of factors such as water distribution, livestock density and changing land use on wildlife distribution
programmatic M & E

21. Additional spinoffs:
Robust monitoring and management allow conservancies to make land-use decisions based on the real value of wildlife. Estimating populations and potential are the first step in this process.
Approximate value of the annual increase in the game numbers
2002 estimates
Population increment
% #s
Value N$
Value of increment N$
Gemsbok
35,890 25
8,970
1,000
9,000,000
Kudu
6,790 20
1,360
1,357,400
Ostrich
6,260 5
310
313,100
Springbok
120,000 27
32,400
300
9,720,000
Zebra
12,380 7
870
800
693,560
Tourism planning and development, a key activity for the economic viability of a number of conservancies, is dependent upon a temporal and spatial understanding of wildlife.
Wildlife data support conservancies in attracting donors, investors etc. Caution: it is the activity rather than numbers which are the key as sustained droughts could have big impacts on numbers but as long as conservancies are monitoring it is an indication of good management.

22. CONCLUSIONS
Equal emphasis has been devoted to the three critical elements of game population monitoring: (i) participative planning, (ii) undertaking the counts and (iii) analysis and reporting
The technical tools and products derived from remote sensing and GIS have enabled working relationships between stakeholders in north-west Namibia to be built
The use of GIS technologies for the wildlife counts supports not only the management of resources at local level but also management and monitoring across geographic and social areas, over time and with different communities and institutions so the results are continuous, representative and compatible
All stakeholders agree on the derived population estimates even though they challenge long held misconceptions about game numbers in the region
If deemed necessary by key stakeholders, considerably more development work could be done for which GIS/RS would be indispensable tools.