1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Development of a Hybrid Freight Model from Truck Travel Surveys and Commodity Flow Data 13 th TRB National Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2011 Arun R. Kuppam Co-authors: Dan Beagan, Sreevatsa Nippani, Lavanya Vallabhaneni, Vladimir Livshits

2. Background/Objectives First Urban Truck Model in USA » Developed by CS in 1992 for MAG » Key reference and case study in 1996 FHWA Quick Response Freight Manual Resources available » 2007 MAG Internal Truck Travel Survey » 2007 TRANSEARCH Database Objectives: To update Internal and External Truck Travel Model 2

3. Unique and Innovative Features Collected O-D travel information from trucks that travel within the MAG region using different surveying techniques for different sectors; Instead of using a single gravity model by truck size distributed trucks by purpose in a series of gravity models using land use-to-land use interchanges; Developed equations to forecast external freight flows based socio-economic activity at the zonal level; Integrated land use-based internal truck model and commodity flow-based external truck model into a “hybrid” truck model. 3

4. Data Collection

5. Survey Process 5 Sources of Sample MAG Employment Database Fleet Seek ATA Fleet Directory U.S. Data Corporation Geographic Distribution of MAG Employment Database Sampling Frame Truck Surveys Establishment Surveys Truck Trip Diaries Research/ National Databases Warehouse/ Distribution Centers/ Terminals Manufacturing Local, Pickup, and Delivery Construction Mail/Parcel For-hire Retail Service Industry Safety Utility Public Service Personal Business

6. Survey Results (establishment surveys) 6 Phone surveys using CATI System Pre-Tests – 10 surveys Full Survey – 552 completes Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Warehousing/ Transportation Classes 8-13 81% Class 5 10% Classes 6-7 9% Class 5 11% Classes 6-7 20% Classes 8-13 69% Classes 8-13 68% Class 5 10% Classes 6-7 22%

7. Survey Results (trip diary surveys) 7 Mail-in/Mail-back surveys Pre-Tests – 24 diaries, 132 stops Full Survey – 236 Diaries, 1304 stops 10% 7% 8% 11% 17% 24% 23% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

8. Internal Truck Model

9. Internal Truck Trip Generation 9 2-digit NAICS employment data (13 categories) Land-use based trip rates (P & A) from expanded surveys Internal truck trip ends by land use and truck type

10. Internal Truck Trip Distribution Gravity models based on friction factors by truck type LU-to-LU trip exchange proportions » Production percents shown sum across to 100% » Attraction percents, not shown, restated to sum down to 100% 10 * Including GOVERNMENTBUILDING/SCHOOL/MILITARY BASE/HOSPITAL

11. Internal Truck Trip Distribution (contd) Conventional gravity model calculates all truck trips between zones “i” and “j” » Based on Productions in “i”, Attractions in “j” and Friction Factor (FF) between zones “i” and “j” Interchange gravity model calculates truck trips from the land use in “i” to the land use in “j” » Based on Productions in “i”, Attractions in “j” and Friction Factor (FF) between zones “i” and “j”; and » Based on the percentage those land uses have of total productions or attractions for that exchange 11

12. Trip Distribution Results 12 Medium-Truck Trip Length Frequency DistributionHeavy-Truck Trip Length Frequency Distribution Average Trip Length by Truck Type

13. External Truck Model

14. External model based on TRANSEARCH commodity flows » TRANSEARCH is annual commodity flow database developed by IHS Global Insight » Represents flows at Statewide, Countywide and Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level » Includes Payload Factors for each commodity » TRANSEARCH has 32 commodities (STCC2) which were grouped into 10 major commodity groups 14

15. External Trip Generation 10 CGs serve as 10 trip purposes for external model » Commodity Flow = f (Employment) » STCC2 (TRANSEARCH) and SIC2 (employment) production relationships by same code » Using SIC2 and NAICS2 crosswalk, STCC2 = f (NAICS2) » STCC2 (TRANSEARCH) and SIC2 (employment) attraction relationships by regression 15

16. External Truck Production Model Mining identified as a special generator Combined CG 4&5 due to limitation in detail in NAICS2 CG6 function of two employment variables Empty trucks produced as a function of attraction 16

17. External Truck Attraction Model Different variables than production for each CG attraction Combined CGs 4 & 5 due to limitation in detail in NAICS2 CG1 and CG3 attractions driven by two employment variables Empty trucks attracted based on total production 17

18. Special Generators Examples » ‘Durable manufacturing’ production – observed vs. predicted » ‘Farm’ attraction – observed vs. predicted Outliers identified as special generators GeoFreight database (BTS) used to locate TAZs of freight terminals for that special generator tonnage 18

19. External Trip Distribution Internal truck trip ends (for ‘I’ in IE & EI) from trip generation Need to identify External truck trip ends » Total truck trip ends from MAG’s external station truck counts » TRANSEARCH annual flows, converted to daily truck trip table, used as initial “Seed Table” » TransCAD’s IPF used with “Seed Table” with counts as targets to find non internal truck trip table Identify E trip ends of IE & EI flows for use in trip distribution Retain E-E flows for later use » Distribute EI and IE trips using gravity model 19

20. Integration & Validation

21. Integrate Internal & External Models Internal truck trips added to External truck trips to produce total truck trip tables by truck type Internal and External truck model scripts integrated with MAG’s passenger travel model scripts Calibration and validation of truck model was done with 2008 base year travel model 21

22. Base Year Validation Selected Cities 22

23. Forecasts Developed growth factors from TRANSEARCH forecasts for » External station targets » Special generators » E-E flow tables Using forecast year NAICS2 data and growth factors, derived truck volumes for forecast years MAG currently using these truck forecasts for conformity analysis 23

24. Future Model Improvements Collect freeway classification counts based on FHWA classes (expected in 2011) Develop screenlines for trucks (in progress) Acquire GPS data for trucks to – » Update internal truck model » Develop trip chaining model Use new TRANSEARCH data to update external truck model (acquired 2009 data) Use TRANSEARCH’s STCC50 to identify ‘secondary’ traffic (to/from warehouses, DCs, IMXs, airports) 24