1. 2 0 0 9 Low Income Housing in India Financing Low Income Housing:
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Low Income Housing in India
Financing Low Income Housing:
Magnitude and Economics
Based on a Project for NHB with support from World Bank, IFC and MSDF
October 29, 2009
Copyright © 2009 by Monitor Company Group, L.P.
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This document provides an outline of a presentation and is incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and discussion.

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Renowned for focus on strategy and cutting-edge ideas that help clients grow
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3. Financing Low Income Housing: Market Potential
Context: The Business Opportunity and Social Need
Economic Potential

4. Context Low Income Housing: The Landscape
Urban India has a vibrant housing market and housing finance has grown at a CAGR of over 35% for the past 13 years1. However, the supply of housing stock is concentrated on the upper income groups — the low income segments are largely un-served
Typical Low-end housing available in urban markets
Urban India — Expenditure Pyramid2
16% (10MM)
37% (~23MM)
33% (~21MM)
14% (~9MM)
MHE: <Rs 2,500 pm
MHE: Rs 2,500– Rs 4,575 pm
MHE: Rs 4,575– Rs 9,625 pm
MHE: >Rs 9,625 pm
Income
Rs. 11,000
US $ 220
Rs. 2,500
Rs. 5,000
US $ 100
Area of city: Within an hour from the city centre
Close to primary, secondary schools, healthcare centre and market place
Well connected to city by bus/train linkages
Typical complex would comprise 3 to 5 buildings with 4 to 8 flats/ floor and 4 floors
Regular water and electricity
No lifts and single set of staircases
Complex would be fenced by a compound wall with shared open spaces including garden and access to play area for kids
Each flat has a super built up area of sq.ft.
1 BHK with an attached toilet and bathroom
Well painted walls and good interiors
Rs per month as maintenance charges
Cost : Rs 450,000 to 600,000
Less than top 16% of Urban Indian households can afford to own houses
Property rates across various cities suggest that it should be commercially viable to build affordable housing in the suburbs for low income customers in urban India
1 Excluding the recent economic downturn; data- based on the report done for NHB in 2006
Source: NHB Trends in Housing; CRIS Infac Report; Monitor Research

5. Low Income Housing not Low Quality Housing Pilot Project- Layout of Building

6. Context Low Income Housing: Social Need and Willingness to Pay
Detailed customer research and our interaction with over 2,000 customers on the ground showed high need for a “house of their own” among people living in appalling living conditions
Profile - Nathubhai
Appalling conditions of Slum-Dwellers
Profile - Ganesh
Has steady job as a factory worker in a textile enterprise in Ahmedabad
Monthly HH income ~ Rs 8000, savings up to Rs p.m.
Lives in 1RmK in low income neighborhood, Rent Rs 1800
Self-employed Mechanic in Mumbai
Monthly HH income – ~Rs 11,000, savings up to Rs 1000 p.m.
Lives in 150 sq. ft. room in slums, Rent Rs 2400
Married with wife and 2 children
Assets – Bank Account (ICICI), Life Insurance (Rs 1.5L), Refrigerator and Personal Computer
Education
Both children attend English-medium school
Rent
Has seen significant & frequent increases in rent, has moved house 5 times in 12 years
Live in poorly constructed small cramped houses
Poor sanitary conditions – shared toilets, bad drainage, water logging during monsoons
Lack of facilities – properly planned access points, walkways, gardens, dedicated schools etc.
Family size 5 with mother, wife and 2 children
Assets – Bank Account (ICICI), Life Insurance (Rs 3L), TV set
Education
Both children attend private Gujarati medium schools
Rent
Increased by 50% in past 3 years and moved every 2 to 3 years
Both share a dream… “A house of their own”…….
Can afford a 250 to 350 sq ft house, willing to make 20% down payment &
pay 35% of monthly income as EMIs to realize their dream
Source: Primary Research (n=2000), Monitor Analysis

7. Context Low Income Housing: The Economic Potential
The low-income housing segment (MHI of Rs 5,000 – 20,000) is estimated at 22 Million households with an estimated opportunity size of Rs. 1,100,000 Cr and is largely underserved
Urban Income Pyramid
Offering & Supply of Housing
Supply of Housing Finance
MHI1 (Rs)
Price of unit2 > Rs 25 Lacs
Potential demand from ~2 M HHs with estimated Market Size of ~Rs 500,000 Cr
Various mortgage finance options available for segment
Various mortgage finance options available for segment
Potential size of mortgage market ~ Rs 400,000 Cr
1% (0.7MM)
>80000
5% (3.4MM)
40000–80000
Price of unit: Rs 10–25 Lacs
Potential demand from ~5 M HHs with estimated Market Size of ~Rs 900,000 Cr
Mortgage finance available broadly
4% (2.7MM)
Mortgage finance available broadly
Potential size of mortgage market ~ Rs 675,000 Cr
30000–40000
5% (3.4MM)
20000–30000
22% (15.0MM)
10000–20000
Price of House: Rs 3–10 Lakhs
Potential demand from ~ 22 Mn3 HHs with estimated Market Size ~Rs 1,100,000 Cr
Severely constrained supply of housing finance for informal sector
Finance available for MHI > Rs 12K in the formal sector, limited availability below MHI of Rs 12K for formal sector and 20K for informal sector
Potential size of mortgage market ~ Rs 8,80,000 Cr
31% (21.1MM)
5000–10000
33% (22.4MM)
<5000
Note: 1 Monthly Household Income; 2 Affordability defined as households which have EMI / MHI Ratio of 40% of a Home loan which has a 20% down payment on an Home value, EMI level of Rs 1,200 per Lac (at 12% interest for a 15 year loan); 3 Conservative estimates that 60% of total households in MHI of Rs 5-20K (36Mn) are renting and looking to buy a house of their own.
Source: NHB Trends in Housing; CRIS Infac Report; Monitor Research

8. Market demonstration of Demand
There is increasing construction of low income private sector housing projects across India
Large real estate players like the Tatas and entrepreneurs like Jerry Rao are starting to recognize the business potential of low income housing and constructing large projects, thereby giving the field increased credibility
Ahmedabad: Vatva
Taral Bakeri
Phase 1: 800 units
Price: Rs 3.3 Lakh– 5.6 Lakh
Mumbai :Ambivili
Neptune Group
100 acres
Phase 1: 1800 units; Sector 1: 600 flats sold out in 3 days
1-BHK and 2-BHK
Rs 4.73 Lakh and Rs 8.40 Lakh
Maharashtra: Karjat
TMC – Matheran Realty
15,000 units by June 2011;
3,000 units in Phase 1 –
June ’09
6,000 Rs 3 Lakh
Maharashtra: Boisar
Tata Housing
67 acres: Phase 1: 1200 units for LIH 1-RMK and 1BHK
Rs 3.9 Lakh and Rs 6.7 Lakh
Bangalore: Atibele
Janadhar
11 acres: units 1BHK and 2 BHK; Rs 4 Lakh and 6 Lakh
Bangalore: Value Budget Housing
Development Corporation
Rs 3-9 Lakh townships on minimum 10 acre plots; 1 Million intended flats
Ahmedabad: Vatva
Foliage Developers
Phase 1: 400 units
Price: Rs lakh upwards
Source: Monitor Research

9. Encouraging Developers Building the Ecosystem
Monitor’s activities for the past two years Facilitating Low Income Housing: “Doing what it takes”
Encouraging Developers
Dissemination
Conveying the opportunity
Arranging customer financing
Obtaining customers
Sharing “best practices” (architectural designs, site layouts, etc.)
Press including Real Estate trade journals (over 20)
Conferences and group sessions (over 30)
One on one meetings with broad range of stakeholders (over 400)
Building the Ecosystem
Existing and new players for mortgage finance (including incubating a housing finance company)
PE and VC funds (incubated a USD 100 Million housing ecosystem fund)
Research on optimal architectural designs, low cost construction technology, sustainability etc.

10. Financing Low Income Housing: Market Potential
Context: The Business Opportunity and Social Need
Economic Potential

11. Context A Stand -Alone Low Income Housing Business: Outline
The business will primarily focus on the urban customer in the Income Group Rs 5-15K who does not have to access to a home loan facility
Customer Profile and Focus
Urban The need for low income housing and home loan financing is especially acute in urban areas, which are seeing rapid population expansion through migration from rural areas
Reach: The HFC will have an urban focus and will establish presence in Metros and surrounding Tier I/II/III cities
Branch: Hub and Spoke model with 55 branches by Year 10
Target Monthly Household Income range: Rs. 5,000 – 15,000
Both salaried customers who are unable to access home loans and informal sector customers, i.e. self-employed and salaried unorganized individuals
Primary Product: Loan for home purchase
Loan Amount: 2 – 8 Lakhs: Families earning between Rs. 5,000 and 20,000 can afford homes costing up to 40 times their monthly income, i.e. Rs. 3 – 10 Lakhs
Loan to Value: 50 – 80%: A minimum of 20% equity from the customer will help mitigate the financier’s risk, while ensuring that the loan is not sub-prime
Installment-Income Ratio (IIR): %: This income group typically pays between % of their monthly incomes as rent, so a % EMI is feasible
Loan Tenure: 6 – 15 years: Will vary based on the customer’s income
Pricing Structure
Adjustable Rate Mortgages with typical interest rates between % based on down-payment amount, IIRs, loan Tenure, and perceived risk profile of customer; and allowing approximately a 3-4% spread
Processing fee of 1% of loan value to re-cover loan origination and credit check costs
Product Offerings and Pricing Structure

12. Economic Potential Revenue Potential for a Low Income HFC
It is estimated that at the HFC will achieve significant growth over 10 years – disbursing close to 2,60,000 loans worth ~ Rs. 10,000 Crores
Portfolio Growth Projections over 10 years
Assumptions1
Cumulative Growth in Loans
Since the HFC market is extremely underpenetrated – it is feasible to assume Year on Year growth rates between 50 – 200% for a start-up, decreasing yearly (MHFC assume 100% growth in the first 5 years; established companies like Dewan & LIC grow at about 25% yoy typically)
Average Ticket Size is Rs. 4 Lakhs
Interest Rate: 14%; Gross Spread of 4%
Loan To Value: No more than 80%
Sanction and Disbursal: 12 month time lag between initial disbursement and commencement of principal repayment
Scheduled loan Tenure is 15 years
The average loan gets repaid in 8 years and there is no prepayment penalty
Cumulative Number of Loans Disbursed
258,398
172,266
114,844
65,625 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9
Y10
Cumulative Value of Loans Disbursed
(Rs. Cores)
Cumulative Amount of Loans Disbursed (in Rs Crores)
Observations
6,891
The HFC will operate at a loss for the first few years, but will turn profitable by year 3
It is possible to model more aggressive or conservative growth scenarios based on the capital reserves available, high level strategic objectives (desired share of the market) of the promoters, supply of low income housing stock etc.
Cumulative Portfolio Size is dependent on Average Ticket Size of loan, with bigger loans resulting in a larger book size
4,594
2,625 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9
Y10
Note: 1 Assumptions are based on interviews with Dewan Housing Finance Company, MAS Rural Housing and Finance, MHFC, and Fullerton Capital

13. Economic Potential Customer Level Economics- Revenue and Costs at Branch Level
The average cost to acquire a customer is Rs. 8,000 and the cost to service their loan over their repayment period is Rs. 20,000, while the net income earned per customer is Rs. 88,000
Per Customer Cost Analysis
Assumptions
Average Loan Size: Rs. 4 Lakhs
Interest Rate Charged: 14%
Loan Processing Fee: 1%
NPA: 1.0%1
A 0.5% of loan value bonus is provided to the branch sales force as an incentive fee for each loan generated
These assumptions are typical for most HFCs (our data comes from Dewan, GRUH, HDFC and MHFC)
Cost to Serve Per Customer (Rs.)
Legal & Technical clearanceLegal & Technical clearanceLegal & Technical clearance
Sales IncentiveSales Incentive
Office OverheadsOffice Overheads
Documentation, Storage & RetrievalDocumentation, Storage & RetrievalDocumentation, Storage & Retrieval
Average NPAAverage NPA
Operating OverheadsOperating Overheads
Total Cost to ServeTotal Cost to Serve
Per Customer Revenue Analysis
Income Earned Per Customer (Rs.)
Observations
It costs approximately Rs. 32,000 to serve each customer, i.e. cost to serve is about 8% of loan size,
The HFC would earn approximately Rs. 88,000 in net income from each customer
Net Profit Per Customer Over 8 years (not including other costs) is approximately Rs. 56,000
Net Interest Income
Processing Fee
Total
Note: 1 DHFC and Gruh NPAs are less than 1%

14. Economic Potential Profitability over a 10 year time frame
Economic Potential Profitability over a 10 year time frame
The HFC will turn profitable after 3 years of operations, and it is anticipated that margins will grow sequentially in progressive years
Profitability over a 10 year time period
Assumptions1
Net Profit/(Loss) (Rs. crores)
Average Loan Tenure: 8 years
Cost of debt: 10%
Debt Equity ratio:
Year : 1
Year : 1
Capex in Years 1 to 3- Rs 3 cr (towards software and hardware)
Net Profit/Loss = Post Tax (Income – Expenses)
ROE = Net Profit/Loss / Average Equity
ROA = Net Profit/Loss / Average Assets
180.3
101.9 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9
Y10
Percentage Return
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
Observations
ROE of 23% in year 10 is very robust by the Indian financial industry standards
ROA of 3% in year 10 is comparable to HFC industry standards
2.2
-3.0
-4.0
-13.9 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9
Y10
Note: 1 Based on conversations with HFC Industry Experts and existing HFCs

15. Low Income Housing as a Driver for Economic Growth: Wide Range of Benefits
Low income housing can provide huge benefits to families, communities and aid overall economic development of state
Provide alternative to Urban Slums
~40M people live in urban slums without basic facilities such as sanitation, water, schools, etc
Renters disempowered. All power is w/ slum lords
Slum lords “own” houses and benefit from Slum Rehabilitation Schemes
Slums create high pressure on infrastructure within a city
Affordable Housing
Benefits for families of Urban Poor
Housing is essential for the well-being of a family
Enhanced security and health through organized housing with access to sanitation
Access to better services (schools, healthcare etc.) which are typically available to higher-income groups
Aiding Overall Economic Development
Construction of low income housing provides disproportionate job creation
Creates significant economic value for state (taxes, ancillary economic activity, source of labor potentially leading to industry, etc
Creation of Low-Risk Asset for Families
Long term wealth creation due to value of asset, “saving on rent” & collateral for loan
A “security net” in crisis
Low income houses typically built on land with low cost per sq. ft. Low likelihood of price depreciation, Hence downside risk is low
Benefits to Communities
Neighborhoods with good quality housing have lower crime rates, stronger local economies and a better overall quality of life

16. THANK YOU !

17. Backup

18. Access to Housing Finance: A Market Overview
Although supply is beginning to flow majority of Banks and Housing Finance Companies are reluctant to serve customers in the informal sector because of the uncertainty of their risk profiles
Ticket Size
Select HFCs (e.g., DEWAN HOUSING)
Alternate means of income assessment for higher income customers such as supplier and customer checks, or MFI and chit fund savings history; guarantor typically required
Large private Banks, HFCs
(e.g., HDFC, ICICI)
Some low-income developer tie ups, but strictly formal sector; no ability/interest in informal customer risk assessment
Willing to give loans only on documented income amount
10 Lakhs
Low-end focused HFCs (e.g., GRUH, MAS)
Limited geographic coverage & capacity
Trying to move to higher ticket sizes to
increase profitability
Largely Un-served
Some PSU schemes, but difficult to access loans due to bureaucracy; staff incentives geared towards disbursement targets
5 Lakhs
2 Lakhs
Informal
‘Semi-formal’
Formal
Paid / earns in cash
No formal income documents
No formal residence/identity documents
Salaried or Self Employed
Significant proportion of undisclosed income
Some residence/identity documents
Salaried with pay slip
Income Tax documents
Residence Documents
Identity documents
Bank account
Difficulty of Assessing Risk
Source: Monitor Research

19. Context Housing Finance Market: Map of Existing Players
There are 45 registered HFCs in India, and these are split almost evenly between organizations that can accept deposits from the public and those that cannot
HBN Housing Finance
Indiabulls Housing Finance
GE Money Housing Finance
Maharishi Housing Development Finance Corporation
Swarna Pragati Housing Micro Finance Private Ltd.
Vishwakriya Housing Finance
HUDCO
IDBI Home Finance
PNB Housing Finance
Deutsche Postbank Housing Finance
MAS Rural Housing
and Mortgage Finance
SRG Housing Finance
Akme Buildhome Private Ltd.
Satyaprakash Housing Finance India
GRUH Finance
Rose Valley Housing Development Finance Corporation
Sahara Housingfina Corporation
Cent Bank Home Finance
Utkal Housing Finance
GIC Housing Finance
HDFC
ICICI Home Finance
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation
LIC Housing Finance
AIG Home Finance India
Orange City Housing Finance
Inara Housing Finance
Janhavi Home Development and Finance
Vastu Housing Finance Corporation
Can Fin Homes
DHFL Vyasa Housing Finance
Manipal Housing Finance Syndicate
Haware’s Housing Development Finance Corporation
India Home Loans Limited
Mahindra Rural Housing Finance
Micro Housing Finance Corporation
Swagat Housing Finance Company
Reliance Home Finance
India Infoline Housing Finance
Tata Capital Housing Finance
Sundaram BNP Paribas Home Finance
REPCO Home Finance
Ind Bank Housing
National Trust Housing Finance
Kerala Housing Finance
HFCs that canaccept Deposits
HFCs that cannot accept Deposits
Source: NHB

20. Context Barriers to entry for Housing Finance Companies
Housing Finance Companies are reluctant to serve customers in the informal sector because of the uncertainty of their risk profiles
Ticket Size
Select HFCs (e.g., GRUH, Fullerton)
Alternate means of income assessment for higher income customers such as supplier and customer checks, or MFI and chit fund savings history; guarantor typically required
Large private Banks, HFCs
(e.g., HDFC, ICICI)
Some low-income developer tie ups, but strictly formal sector; no ability/interest in informal customer risk assessment
Willing to give loans only on documented income amount
10 Lakhs
Low-end focused HFCs (e.g., DHFC, MAS)
Limited geographic coverage & capacity
Trying to move to higher ticket sizes to increase profitability
Largely Unserved
Some PSU schemes, but difficult to access loans due to bureaucracy; staff incentives geared towards disbursement targets
5 Lakhs
Informal
‘Semi-formal’
Formal
Paid / earns in cash
No formal income documents
No formal residence/identity documents
Salaried or Self Employed
Significant proportion of undisclosed income
Some residence/identity documents
Salaried with pay slip
Income Tax documents
Residence Documents
Identity documents
Bank account
Difficulty of Assessing Risk
Source: Monitor Research

21. Sub-prime Experience in USA Low-Income Housing in India
Low Income Segments as Target Market Largely-Untested Risk Profile, different from Sub-prime in the USA
Sub-prime Experience in USA
Low-Income Housing in India
Very high LTV; creative structures developed to reduce EMIs
Loans extended without due consideration to ability to pay (basis employment history) – financing provided to those with questionable employment record
Cost of asset disproportionately high compared to replacement cost; this is attributed to the real estate asset bubble in the US – hence high risk of payment default
75-80% LTV – significant individual contribution required; EMIs tend to be 35% of Monthly Income
Target customers have regular employment, albeit with low income – with an unproven credit record which needs to be tested
In the low income segment, relatively low cost of land (esp. in peri-urban areas) leads to high correlation between cost of asset and replacement cost; and hence lower risk of asset bubbles
Outcome: Sub-prime Defaults and Foreclosures
Outcome: Untested, relatively low-risk segment with significant business potential

22. Key Challenges and Critical Success Factors Understanding Key Challenges
Understanding real versus perceived credit risk and managing costs to serve are the key challenges for HFCs serving the informal sector
Understanding the risk profile of the informal sector
Unconventional methods are required to measure the credit risk associated with low income informal groups, in the absence of formal documentation
Alternate methods of income verification income such as understanding the customer’s savings history (chit funds, MFIs), business (access to credit from suppliers, line of credit to customers, daily cash flows etc.) are required
Cash micropayments
Collecting a large number of small payments that originate from the customer as cash is difficult and expensive
Most HFCs use a post-dated cheque or ECS system, but this requires that the customer have a pre-existing bank account
If a cost-effective system to address cash micropayments is implemented, it is anticipated that default rates will drop significantly – default rates among Dewan Housing Finance Limited’s cash paying customers are extremely low (0.13%, as against an average industry NPA of 1.5%)
Managing Construction Risk (Developer Tie-Ups)
As low cost housing finance is mostly driven by access to supply of appropriate homes, performing adequate due diligence on developer partners is paramount
Managing delays in construction by structuring loans to be delivered post construction in staged phases of the project – this will incentivize the developer and avoid lengthened interest payments from the customers because of project delays
Lack of adequate access to wholesale construction finance from commercial sources
Source: Monitor Analysis

23. Key Challenges and Critical Success Factors Enabling Regulatory Environment and Government Policy
There are a variety of potential government and interventions that could help catalyze the low income housing finance sector
Govt and NHB interventions
Access to sources of long term, low cost funding (ideally below market rates) to enable HFCs to keep consumer interest rates low
Expediting NHB timelines for granting HFCs approvals and improved transparency into the process would enable rapid and efficient market entry for new players.
Creating a guarantee fund that could take the first X% of losses against lending to low income groups would encourage new players to enter the market
This would allow these players to build a better understanding of risk in the segment and in turn appropriately price risk into their mortgage products.
Process and Technology Innovations
Allow daily cash collections of EMIs through network of collection agents/MFIs or at the branch
Introduce a seasonal loan products that enables customers to tune their repayment cycle to their seasonal income cycles
Linkages between customers’ savings accounts and repayment schedules to enable direct deposits of EMIs etc
Mobile banking facilities to enable prompt repayments from customers lacking bank accounts
Leveraging the MFI network
Use MFIs extensive knowledge of the target customer base to select customers with strong repayment history and lower perceived risk
Employ MFIs extensive staff of Field Officers for loan collection and disbursals of loans
Encourage the government to make it easier for MFIs to set up HFC divisions
Source: Monitor Analysis

24. Establishing a Housing Finance Company in India
Monitor Inclusive Markets’ Role
Monitor is well positioned to help incubate new Housing Finance Companies focusing on the low income sector, through its knowledge of the low income space in India as well as its deep networks
Disseminate Concept & Help New Players Adopt the Business Model
Introduce the concept of housing finance and disseminate information on the commercially viable business opportunity to provide housing finance to low income customers to broad groups of stakeholders
Actively assist new players interested in entering the HFC space with their market entry strategies and business plans
Facilitate Access to Capital
Assist in preparation of Information Memorandums for HFCs looking to raise funds
Connect HFCs to Private Equity investors looking to invest in the low income housing finance ecosystem
Actively assist in the fundraising process through broader introductions and brokerage with sources of capital such as multilateral institutions, foundations, impact investing networks etc.
Link HFC to key players in the Low Income Housing Ecosystem through Monitor’s networks
Assist entrepreneurs through our knowledge of the process of setting up an HFC and introductions to experts and prior successful applicants
Connect the HFC to lawyers and technical experts with deep expertise in housing finance
Introduce the HFC to Monitor’s vast networks of developer partners, and facilitate tie-ups between the HFC and specific low income housing projects